Putin Reverses Course on Eastern Ukraine

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 7, 2014
All Rights Reserved.                                     

              Looking for an escape hatch in Eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin returned to his senses, calling back the dogs in Eastern Ukraine.  In what looks like a surprise move, the wily 61-year-old former KGB agent bit off more than he could chew, rousing Russian separatist too far in their bid to join the Russian Federation.  After seizing Crimea March 1, Putin stationed 40,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, hinting at a possible invasion of the Russian army.  With Putin’s 2008 invasion of Georgia and continued presence of Russian forces in Georgia, Putin’s move in Crimea sent chills through former Soviet satellites, especially the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.  Poland also got nervous asking NATO to send as message to the Kremlin to prevent what looked more like a new aggressive strategy in Eastern Europe, prompting strong objections from the U.S. and European Union.

             Putin’s decision, telling pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine to hold off on a secession vote, reflects a reality check that he was close to permanently damaging  relations with the West.  “We call on the representatives from southeastern Ukraine, the supporters of the federalization of the country, to postpone the referendum planned for May 11,” said Putin showing the first signs that he’s willing to compromise with the West on Eastern Ukraine.  Western authorities essentially ceded Crimea to Putin March 1 after the Feb. 22 anti-Russian coup that toppled the Russian-friendly government of 62-year-old Vitktor Yanukovic.  Playing a dangerous game of chicken with the West, Putin showed no signs of blinking until now, where calculated Russia’s potential economics losses but, more importantly, permanent damage to his relationship with the EU where he already supplies 32% of its natural gas.

             Showing the West he means business, Putin ordered his Russian forces away from the Ukrainian border, something the U.S. and EU insisted in Geneva April 17, when the U.S., EU, Russian and Ukraine med to deescalate the crisis.  “We’re always being told that our forces on the Ukrainian border are a concern.  We have withdrawn them.  Today they are not on the Ukrainian border, they are in place where they conduct their regular tasks on training grounds,” Putin spoke in Moscow with the head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, proposing a “roadmap” to end the crisis in Ukraine.  Under pressure from all sides, Putin heeded calls from NATO’s Secretary Gen. Anders Fogh Rasmussen on a visit to Poland.  “Russia should live up to its international commitments and stop supporting separatists and scale back troops from the border, so a political solution can be found,” said Rasmussen.

             Putin objected to the U.S. and EU-backed Feb. 22 coup that drove Yanukovich from Kiev.  He rejected completely Ukraine’s post-revolutionary government led by 49-year-old acting President Oleksandr Turchinov and 39-year-old acting Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, both asking President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden to arm the Ukrainian military.  Neither man cares about the damage done to U.S.-Russian relations, now hitting a post-Cold War low.  Both leaders pushed the U.S. and EU to slap Russia with harsh economic and travel sanctions, hoping to paralyze the Russian economy.  After seizing Crimea March 1, Putin played his cards close to the vest, stationing troops on the Ukrainian border to keep Kiev’s post-revolutionary government from seizing back territory lost to pro-Russian separatists.  Kiev’s attempts to retake territory have failed.

             U.S. and EU officials have ruled out military action to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity.  No U.S. or EU elected officials believes it’s in the national security interest on both sides of the Atlantic to confront Russia militarily to defend Ukraine.  “We have the utmost respect for President Putin.  If he considers that necessary, we will of course discuss it,” pro-Russian separatist leaders Denis Pushilin told Reuters in Donetsk.  Russian separatists want Donetsk to be the capital of a the “Peoples Republic of Donetsk.”  Pushilin doesn’t yet get Putin’s motives to postpone any secession vote.  If Putin’s believes it’s not in Russia’s interest to annex Eastern Ukraine, it won’t happen.  All his talk about protecting Russian-speaking people in Ukriane now takes a backseat to Moscow’s tanking stock market and rubble.  Any more sanctions could plunge the Russian economy into recession.

             Backing off his threats to annex more territory in Eastern Ukraine, Putin seems content to hang onto Crimea and let the rest of Ukraine figure out what to do.  Among those confronting Ukrainian troops, a certain logic should prevail under which they understand that without the support of Russia and thereby the Russian army, they could be subjected to heavy military strikes,” said Yevgeny Minchenko, a pro-Kremilin political analyst.  Putin’s decision to back down has more to do with protecting the Russian MICEX stock market and rubble than pro-Russian separatists now seeking more government largess from Mother Russia.  Ukraine’s Russian-speaking population has little support for Ukraine’s new leaders.  If the U.S. and EU wish to help to Ukraine’s future, they would summit with Putin and find acceptable leaders that could speak for all Ukrainians, not the folks only in Kiev.