by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 7, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

ifteen grueling months into his presidential campaign, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) finally landed a knockout punch, sending Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) to the mat. Winning North Carolina by a whopping 15%, Obama recovered from the Rev. Wright flu, reasserting himself after losing a bruising fight April 22 in Pennsylvania. Battling Clinton to nearly a tie in Indiana sent Hillary's uphill bid for the Democratic nomination into a tailspin. Her argument to superdelegates that Barack could not win middle and working-class white voters came unglued, watching Obama nearly pull off the upset. Recent polls also showed that either she or Barack beat GOP presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by hefty margins in November, undermining her electability argument. While Hillary vows to press on, Indiana proved to be the campaign's tipping point.

      Last week, the momentum belonged to Hillary after the April 28 AP-Ipsos poll showed that she, not Barack, beats McCain by big margins. Just when Barack seemed dead-in-the-water, he rebounded from the Rev. Wright brouhaha finally denouncing his ex-reverend, April 29. One week later, he stands on the threshold of the Democratic nomination. While Hillary proudly ignores reality, the political landscape has already shifted to Obama, picking up four more superdelegates. Obama now has 1,846 delegates to 1,696 for Clinton, making the math impossible for Hillary to catch up. Delegate math turned sour for Clinton March 4 when she failed to make up ground after winning Ohio and Texas. Two weeks before, she ran out of money, lending her campaign $5 million. After Indiana and North Carolina, she lent herself another $6.4 million, vowing to stay until West Virginia, May 13.

      In what amounts to an ominous sign for the GOP, Barack bested Hillary despite formidable GOP strategic crossover voting, following orders from conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh. GOP strategists have long believed that Hillary was more vulnerable against McCain than Barack. Recent polls have shown that either Democratic candidate matches up well against the Arizona senator. Despite Indiana's open primary, permitting Republicans and independents to vote for Hillary, Obama still almost took Indiana. When Hillary won Texas March 4 by 112,000 votes, 134,000 Republicans gave her their votes. Indiana's near tie proved, once again, that Barack could appeal to white middle and working class voters. Last week, Hillary's campaign emphasized her superior electability, highlighting her performance in key states with key voting blocks for the general election.

      After Indiana and North Carolina, an overwhelming consensus developed about Obama's impending victory. Nearly every pundit called the race over. “This candidacy and this campaign continues on,” said Clinton communication director Howard Wolfson, soldiering on despite knowing the overwhelming odds. Unlike prior reprieves, there's too few primaries left to make any difference. When polls showed that both Hillary and Barack decisively beat McCain, Wolfson lost his electabibility argument. With or without seating Florida and Michigan, Hillary still loses the delegate and popular vote count. Her long-shot argument involved national polls showing she ran stronger against McCain. Hillary lost her bragging rights from Pennsylvania, showing that she carried no momentum to Indiana. Barack's turnaround started with his denunciation of Rev. Wright, but he more importantly found his voice.

      Talk now centers on how long will the Clinton campaign keep going. While she's committed to West Virginia next Tuesday, there's doubt that she would allow her campaign to rack up more debt. During the next week, back-channel talks will take place about the possibility of a Barack-Hillary ticket and helping retire Hillary's mounting campaign debt. Unlike after Pennsylvania, there's been no surge in donations, signaling the end of the campaign. When she first loaned her campaign $5 million on Valentine's Day, the handwriting was on the walls. Without donations, it's a matter of time before the campaign sinks. Hillary & Co. must decide how much further to string out the inevitable. If she has any chance of getting offered VP—or any other post—she's got to show some class, not doggedly pursue a losing battle and further antagonize Obama's campaign.

      Campaign junkies don't have to be psychic to figure out the Democratic nomination. Obama survived relentless attacks coordinated by the GOP and Clinton campaigns. His groundswell of popular support hasn't hit a critical mass, only starting when Hillary call it quits. GOP strategists have known for sometime Obama's phenomenal potential as a presidential candidate. They've also known that 2008 is not the year of status quo, giving McCain little or no hope of capturing the White House. Obama has shown nerves of steel facing down one of the most skillful political teams in recent U.S. history. Beating Hillary was no easy feat for the first-term senator from Illinois, whose national appeal and popularity haven't scratched the surface. While accepting defeat isn't easy, Hillary would be well-advised to read the tea leaves, accept reality and bow out gracefully.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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