Obama Rolls the Dice and Wins Big Politically

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 3, 2011
All Rights Reserved.                                         

               Demonizing President Barack Obama since taking office Jan. 20, 2009, Republicans worst nightmare happened May 1, when Navy Seals burst into Osama bin Laden’s Abbottabad redoubt and took him out.  GOP-backed pollster Scott Rasmussen insisted Obama received no post-Osama bounce, hoping to rally a demoralized GOP incapable to getting the mastermind of Sept. 11 and world’s most dreaded terrorist.  New aggregate polling reported today on RealClearPolitics.com indicated that Obama indeed bounced up from 45% to 51% in the last two days.  When the American public—and indeed the world—digested the significance of Bin Laden’s demise, Obama is viewed as a real hero.  Reports show that Barack decided to roll the dice last Friday, given the CIA’s 60% to 80% chance that Bin Laden was actually located in the three-story, barbwire, walled compound 90 miles north of Islamabad.

            Despite political risks of a botched mission, Obama gave the green light for ground operation April 29, uncertain whether it would make or break his political future.  Prospective voters in recent polls expressed their appreciation to Obama for risking his political future to safeguard U.S. national security.  Republicans hoped, heading into next year’s presidential election, that they could depict Obama as a weak leader, incapable of defending the country.  Democrats hoped Barack would deliver his campaign promise to accelerate the ends to the Afghanistan and Iraq wars.  When Obama escalated the Afghan War immediately on taking office, he silenced his Republican critics.  His May 1 decision to approve Bin Laden’s assassination showed that the 50-year-old president was anything but a dove, a bold leader taking decisive action to protect U.S. national security.

            Since Bin Laden’s death, controversies abound, including why the Navy Seals disposed of the 54-year-old terrorist’s corpse in what the Pentagon describes as a proper Muslim burial at sea.  Photos released by the White House showing the president and his national security team agonizing during the operation in the Situation Room, showed how serious the stakes during the 40-minute-long mission.  Taking those risks display Obama’s grace-under-pressure, the type of mettle that led Caroline Kennedy to endorse Barack, comparing him favorably to her father, the late President John F. Kennedy.  Two-and-a-half years into Barack’s first term, voters were treated to watching “no drama Obama “ in action.  No matter what the nation’s domestic problems, Barack is now a battle-tested president as Commander-in-Chief, someone voters are less likely to switch on Election Day.

            No matter what the controversy over Bin Laden’s death, Barack has done something that former presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush couldn’t do:  Get the world’s No. 1 terrorist.  Barack now resists releasing Bin Laden’s autopsy photos, citing propriety and national security.  Having killed the lion of radical Islam, the U.S. already faces expected reprisals.  Whether White House releases the photos or not, the U.S. still faces an enhanced terror threat for some time.  “There’s no need to spike the football,” said Obama, rejecting media requests to release Bin Laden’s post-mortem photos.  Like looking into casket at a funeral, releasing an autopsy photo, no matter how gruesome, helps make the deceased real, especially for Bin Laden’s ghost-like image.  Whatever hate radical groups have toward the U.S. after his death, Bin Laden’s photo won’t change their need for revenge.

           More controversy over Bin Laden’s death stems from reports that he was shot, while unarmed, at point-blank range.  Early reports errantly described Bin Laden as armed and dangerous, while revised info had him unarmed.  “Let me make something very clear:  The operation in which Osama bin Laden was killed was lawful,” U.S. Atty. Gen. Eric H. Holder Jr. told lawmakers on Capitol Hill.  Questions were raised about the rules of engagement, especially with unarmed combatants.  “Consistent with the laws of war, Bin Laden’s surrender would have been accepted if feasible,” said White House spokesman Jay Carney.  In fairness to Navy Seals at the scene, they couldn’t wait to see whether Bin Laden was wearing a suicide vest, something common with al-Qaeda terrorists.  Carney knows that “illegal” or “enemy combatants” or criminals like Bin Laden don’t fall under the Geneva Convention. 

            Barack’s six-point bounce in the polls mirrors the gratitude of U.S. voters, giving the president a vote of confidence as commander-in-chief.  His heroic decision to roll the dice and go after Bin Laden paid rich dividends with Barack earning the hard way his credentials as commander-in-chief.  Whether or not Obama decides to publish autopsy photos, it’s unlikely to increase the risk of retaliation.  “I think that, given the graphic nature of these photos, it would create some national security risk,” said Carney, not considering the need to show the world that Bin Laden’s ghost-like image met its final end.  CIA Director Leon Panetta disagreed with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, supporting the idea of releasing Bin Laden’s post-mortem photos.  Whether believed or not, the photos would help set the record straight that Bin Laden is dead.

 John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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