Sarkozy Faces Stinging Defeat in French Election

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 3, 2012
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               Bitten by Europe’s economic downturn, 57-year French President Nicloas Sarkozy faces repudiation by French voters in his bid for reelection.  If rejected May 7, it will be the first time in modern French history that an incumbent couldn’t win a second six-year term.  Elected May 16, 2007, Sarkozy defeated female Socialist candidate Ségoléne Royal but now faces a far tougher Socialist opponent, 58-year-old Francois Hollande this time around.  Showing how much difference a day makes, Sarkozy was flying high with popularity when he married 45-year-old Italian-French supermodel Carla Bruni Feb. 2, 2008 in a spectacular Elysée Palace event, becoming new French royalty, at least until the Eurozone melted down last year.  Since then, French politicians and voters have had the daggers out, finding little appealing in the once U.S. and U.K-friendly French politician.

            Faced with a similar, if no worse,  financial crisis from the one faced in the U.S. in 2008, Sarkozy has little to offer French voters other than more austerity.  “I will fight with all my strength to win your confidence, to protect and lead you and build a strong France but if that is not your choice, I will bow out.  That’s the way it is, and I will have had a great life in politics,” Sarkozy told RMC radio.  While it’s not over yet, Sarkozy faces an uphill battle convincing disgruntled French voters to keep the status quo.  Given the economic mess in France and the Eurozone, French voters seek more poulet it their pots, not the scarcity and scarcity promised by Sarkozy.  With the European Union imposing harsh economic conditions, France faces years of belt-tightening.  “I’ll do something else.  I don’t know what,” said Sarkozy, a former Jacque Chirac Interior Minsiter [2002-2004].

           French voters show signs of the Révolution Francaise, disgusted with the Louis XVI and his Queen Marie Antoinette, notorious for their extravagance, much like how Sarkozy and Bruni paraded around Paris and the South of France while ordinary French people suffered the indignity of recession.  Sarkozy’s recent public remarks suggest he reads the tea leaves as well as anyone else.  French voters simply can’t afford to continue the status quo with their leader symbolizing the kind of extravagance now distasteful.  Though the April 28 runoff showed Sarkozy running only one point behind Hallande {27% to 28%], the spread seems to have widened in recent days.  Sarkozy made a last ditch appeal to right wing candidate Marine Le Pen, hoping to pull some of her votes to him on May 7.  Sarkozy hopes to pull more votes from Wednesday’s night’s final presidential debate.

          Sarkozy swept into office in 2007 with promises of economic prosperity, promising strong ties with the U.S. and China.  Sarkozy’s plans for economic prosperity crashed along with the Eurozone’s failed economies.  Unlike Hollande, Sarkozy doesn’t support whopping tax increases, proposing an additional 45% tax on incomes exceeding 150,000 euros.  Hollande’s plan, that seems to resonate with most French voters, promises to raise an extra 29 billion euros and balance the budge by 2017.  During Sarkozy’s six-year reign, he seemed too cozy with the CEO-class, watching from afar as race riots gripped French society.  Much of France’s current problems stem from disproportionately high levels of immigrant and minority unemployment.  Hollande, a good Socialist, promised more poulet appealing to rank-and-file French voters.  Sarkozy’s jetsetter lifestyle wrecked his image.

           Sarkozy’s political problems today are dominated by the France and Eurozone’s economic woes.  Far from ending, most Eurozone countries, especially Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and, of course Greece, face crippling austerity programs, calling for massive cutbacks in social welfare programs, including health care and retirement benefits.  “Without workers, ther would be no bosses,” said Christine Delome, a 57-year-old factory worker in Toulouse, blaming Sarkozy for sending too many jobs overseas, especially to China.  While Sarkozy isn’t to blame for outsourcing, he’s to blame for forgetting to support French workers.  Like the French elections, President Barack Obama’s reelection, too, will largely turn on who’s perceived as more supportive to rank-and-file-workers.   Like Hollande’s strategy, Obama seeks to paint former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney as pro-business. 

             Sarkozy appears to be hitting the proverbial banana peel, caught in bad economic times with workers lashing out.  Whether or not Hollande will be better for the French economy is anyone’s guess.  Unlike U.S. elections, neither major candidate will be talking of hiking taxes before next November.  While Obama talks about the “Buffet Rule,” hiking taxes on the rich, any discussion will be tabled until after the election.  “What’s troubling in all this is the evasion, it’s the hypocrisy, it’s the lies,” said Sarkozy realizing that his days are numbered.  When caught in an economic vise, there’s little candidates can do on both of sides of the Atlantic for reelection.  Unlike Sarkozy, Obama’s riding a wave of relatively good economic news he prays will stay until after the election.  Bad timing and too much extravagance has now caught up with the ever-charismatic French president.

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