by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright May 2, 2003
All Rights Reserved.

aking a tail-hook landing in a fighter jet on the flight deck of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln only 30 miles off the coast of San Diego, President George W. Bush announced "the United States and our allies have prevailed." With 5,000 cheering sailors, red, white and blue streamers and thunderous marching music, Bush unofficially opened the 2004 campaign on a most triumphant stage. While billed as victory speech, Bush signaled to political foes that he doesn't plan to repeat the same mistakes that cost his father a second term in 1992. Playing up the war, "Operation Iraqi Freedom was carried out with a combination of precision, speed and boldness the enemy did not expect and the world had not seen before," telling the nation that U.S. military is up to any challenge. Bush's speech told the world that the U.S. has fully recovered from the devastating blow of Sept. 11.

      Bush reminded enemies that the U.S. wouldn't sit idly by while terrorists plot their next attacks. "You have shown the world the skill and might of the American armed forces," he told cheering sailors, euphoric about returning to port after 10-months at sea. Though not declaring victory, the president announced the end of the battle for Iraq, shifting operations to reconstruction and nation building. "The liberation of Iraq is a crucial advance in the campaign against terror," said Bush, placing the battle of Iraq into the ongoing war on terrorism. While there's much work to finish, the victory in Iraq has lifted Bush to over 70% approval ratings, giving him what seems like unstoppable momentum heading into 2004. Yet lingering doubts and disturbing parallels leave some wondering whether history will repeat itself, watching a flagging economy upend his quest for a second term.

      Prevailing wisdom holds that Bush's father commanded impressive approval ratings in 1991 after the first Gulf War, somewhere around 80%. Yet, according to this theory, his numbers were relentlessly eroded by a stubborn recession and stagnant economy, leading to an election-day defeat to William Jefferson Clinton. Like Bush's father, Dubya rides great popularity from a stunning military victory in Iraq, yet still encounters public discontent. While Bush-41 faced greater opposition, Dubya's victory offers potentially more support by galvanizing increased nationalism. "Now he has to translate that back to domestic issues, to the things people are going to care about in November 2004. If he can, he'll win big. If he can't, and the economy is still in bad shape, all bets are off," said an unnamed high-ranking White House advisor, buying the idea that a bad economy threatens his reelection.

      In 1992, it wasn't only the economy that gave George H.W. Bush fits. Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot ran as an independent, siphoning off 19% of GOP and swing voters. Al Gore supporters lamented Ralph Nader's 2000 Green Party run, draining only 4% away from the Democratic candidate, still beating Bush by more that 500,000 votes. When the votes were finally tallied, Bill Clinton only beat Bush-41 by only 5.6%, denying him a second term. Yet, for some unknown reason, Bush's loss is attributed to the bad economy. Had Perot not run, Bush-41 would have easily beaten Clinton by at least 10%. Looking ahead to 2004, Bush-43 enjoys many advantages over his father. For starters, he's youthful, approachable and increasingly mediagenic. No president —other than FDR—presided over the most pivotal event in modern U.S. history since the attack on Pearl Harbor or assassination of JFK.

      Most citizens rallied behind President Bush after Sept. 11. Whether conservative or liberal, Americans typically close ranks when the nation's under attack. Bush has made it clear that the war on terrorism won't end anytime soon, leaving many voters unwilling to uproot the current national security team. While most voters want a healthy economy, they also think national security trumps the size of their wallets. Unlike Bush- 41, Bush-43 won't antagonize his base by proposing new taxes. Whatever the deficits, the current White House occupant won't raise taxes or make his father's mistake of promising one thing and doing another. Whether about judicial appointments, tax cuts or national defense, Dubya won't antagonize party loyalists responsible for the most prodigious fundraising in GOP history during the 2000 election. With campaign finance reform already in the dustbin, Republican fundraising should soar to new heights.

      Concerns about Bush-41 following in his father's footsteps are grossly overstated and largely unfounded. Baring a major catastrophe between now and the election, the White House should trounce all opposition. Without an unexpected third-party candidate with the stature of John McCain, Bush should continue to grab crossover voters and independents unwilling to rock the boat at a time of national peril. While the economy will no doubt play a part, most voters understand the sacrifices—including whopping deficits—needed for better national security. Strategists at the White House won't let their guard down or rest until the election is certified. No matter whom Democrats offer up, it's going to be difficult to unseat a popular wartime incumbent, who plans to break all political fundraising records. Looking into the crystal ball, you don't have to be a psychic to figure things out this time around.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma

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