|
U.S. on Wrong Track to End Ukraine Crisis
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
April 27, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Before
the U.S. with the best intentions makes the crisis in Ukraine unsalvageable, the
White House needs to look at both sides of the problem. Faced with a pro-Western
post-revolutionary government, Ukraine’s pro-Russia separatists see no hope in
the current government. If the
U.S., U.N. and Russia would come up with some consensus leadership in Kiev to
replace 49-year-old Oleksandr Turchinov and 39-year-old Prime Minister Arseniy
Yatsenyuk, the crisis and brewing civil war would be solved. No pro-Russian segment of Ukraine
can back the pro-Western coup that toppled the duly elected government of Viktor
Yanukovich Feb. 22. No matter how
corrupt or distasteful, Ukrainians need to resolve the leadership vacuum at the
ballot boxes not with an angry mob.
Since no pro-Russian faction can accept the current government—new consensus
leaders must be picked.
Applying more punitive sanctions on Putin to stop the pro-Russian
separatists in Eastern Ukraine doesn’t deal with the inexperience and
illegitimacy of Kiev’s current government.
If the U.S. or European Union really want to end the crisis they’d call
for immediate resignations of Ukraine’s post-revolutionary leaders. Neither Turchinov nor Yatsenyuk are
accepted by Moscow nor to pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine. Forcing them out would start the
reconciliation process to find consensus candidates to deal with pro-EU interest
in Kiev and pro-Russian interests in Eastern Ukraine. As long as Kiev only represents
Western interests, Ukraine will be pushed closer to civil war. “It is important for us to take
further steps sending a message to Russia that these kinds of destabilizing
activities taking place in Ukraine have to stop,” said Deputy National Security
Advisor Tony Blinken in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Sending more punitive measures to Moscow only makes a bad situation worse
by proving to Putin that the West only has its interests at heart. U.S. and EU officials know that Turchinov and Yatsenyuk are not acceptable to Moscow or
pro-Russian separatists in Eastern Ukraine.
Yatsenyuk has been trying to sell the U.S. on rebuilding the Ukrainian
military, demonstrating a lack of willingness to fight pro-Russian separatists. Practically standing on his head to
get direct military aid from the U.S., Yatsenyuk has tried every angle to get
Obama to cough up arms and cash.
“Here is the bottom line. We could
send weapons to Ukraine. It
wouldn’t make a difference in terms of their ability to stand up to the
Russians,” said Blinken, rejecting Kiev’s attempt to draw the U.S. into a wider
conflict. Kiev’s current leaders want the U.S. to directly engage with Russia’s military, something
unthinkable.
U.S. officials have a bigger obligation to U.S. foreign policy than to
Ukraine’s post-revolutionary leaders.
If they don’t represent a majority of Ukrainians, they must be replaced
with leaders that do. With an end
to the Afghan War in sight, Syria’s ongoing civil war, North Korea threatening
the civilized world, Iran potentially building nukes, the U.S. has bigger fish
to fry than alienating Russia.
Obama’s already driven U.S.-Russian relations to a new post-Cold War low,
prompting an urgent reassessment of current Ukraine policy. Threatening Moscow with more
sanctions harms the linkage that enables the U.S. to cooperate with Russian in
areas of mutual interest. Whatever
the political fallout of the Midterm elections on Capitol Hill, both parties
need to get on the same page when it comes to dealing with Ukraine. Making a bigger enemy out of Russia
services no one.
Showing reluctance to apply more severe sanctions on Russia, the U.S.
should take a hint from the EU, whose natural gas and petroleum purchases
reflect an interdependence on Russia.
Pushing the EU to adopt harsher sanctions could boomerang on the world
economy, making it more difficult to balance economic realities on the
continent. “To me hitting four of
the largest banks there would send shockwaves into the economy,” said Sen. Bob
Corker (R-Tenn.), highlighting exactly why the U.S. and EU must proceed with
caution against Putin. No one on
Wall Street or any other global stock exchange benefits when the world’s eighth
leading economy goes into recession.
Western powers need to show some restraint before economic sanctions hurt
more there own economies than Russia.
Putin has plenty of places to unload vast supplies of natural gas and
petroleum other than Europe.
Defusing the Ukraine crisis isn’t rocket science. U.S. and EU officials must see
Russia’s side of the problem, especially rejecting Kiev’s current leaders that
came to power illegally during a Western-backed coup. If the U.S. and EU asked Turchinov
and Yataenyuk to step down, it would go a long way in resolving the current
crisis that pushes Ukraine dangerously close to civil war. Blaming Putin for current unrest in
Eastern Ukraine completely ignoring the geopolitical issues that prevent
Ukraine’s post-revolutionary rulers from leading the country. If the U.S. and EU really want to
solve the Ukraine crisis, they need to call immediately for Turchinov and
Yatsenyuk to resign. Finding interim consensus candidates would go a long way in
satisfying Eastern Ukraine’s demands currently not met in Kiev. Backing them both only pushes the
crisis closer to civil war.
| 
