by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 27, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

hallenging Sen. Barack Obma (D-Il.) to a Lincoln-Douglas-style debate, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) tried to play catch-up. Barack quickly dismissed her offer, citing other priorities. Before the South Carolina primary Jan. 19, former President Bill Clinton pulled the race card, telling voters his wife would lose because of the “black vote.” Since South Carolina, despite losing a majority of primaries and caucuses, Hillary has questioned whether Obama can win “blue collar” whites, a mainstay en route to the White House. Her 10% win April 22 in Pennsylvania demonstrated Hillary's strength head-to-head with Barack for white working-class voters. It says nothing about how Obama would fair in the general election. Clinton's communication director Howard Wolfson questioned April 27 on CBS's “Face the Nation” whether Obama could carry blue-collar whites in the general election

      Clinton's new strategy becomes one of convincing superdelegates that Hillary is more electable than Obama. Not one national poll shows that Hillary matches up better than Obama against GOP presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Since capturing the nomination March 4, he virtually ignored Hillary and attacked Barack at every opportunity, hoping to upend Obama. Most high-profile GOP pundits, including conservative radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh, Fox News' Sean Hannity and Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, support Hillary, not because they like her but precisely because they don't want to run against Obama in November. Hillary's last-ditch argument to superdelegates—her only path to victory—involves touting her electability. Wolfson's remarks about Hillary's success with blue-collar whites attempt to change the minds of superdelegates.

      Questioned April 27 on Fox News Sunday, Obama dismissed the idea that race would undermine his chances of beating McCain. “Is that going to be a determining factor in a general election?” asked Barack. “No, because I'm absolutely confident that the American people—what they're looking for is somebody who can solve their problems,” rejecting the idea that race will weigh heavily on November 3. “Is race still a factor in our society?” asked Obama. “Yes, I don't think anybody would deny that,” admitting that the so-called “Bradley Effect,” or the effect of race on white voting preferences, will have some impact. Political scientists indicate that prejudice could affect the outcome by up to 5%. In a close election, that could certainly make a difference. Yet recent analysis of November's electoral map favors any Democrat against the GOP candidate.

      When Barack rejected Hillary's overture for more debating, her only recourse became negative campaigning. With only nine contests left before June 3, it's mathematically impossible for Hillary to catch Barack in pledged delegates. She can only look beyond the primaries and hope to persuade superdelegates to hand her the nomination. “What's going to happen in the last primaries is there's going to be some feeling at some point that one of these candidates is more likely to win than the other and that person will get the nomination. I can't tell you who that is. I have no idea who that is, but that's what's going to happen,” said Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean on NBC's “Meet The Press.” While Dean tries to act neutral, he's already on record supporting the candidate that finishes the primaries with the most pledged delegates after June 3.

      Dean reinforced the idea that, according to DNC rules on superdelegates, they must support the most electable candidate. If all national polls point to Barack fairing better than Hillary against McCain, Hillary's blue-collar argument is going to fall flat. Dean also hinted about a possible joint-ticket. “This is essentially pretty close to a tie here,” said Dean, suggesting the Party will have its work cut out when it's forced to select a nominee after the last primary. No one in the Democratic Party expressed interest in a convention floor-fight, should the nominee remain undecided before the Aug. 28-31 Democratic National Convention in Denver. Had GOP voters not crossed over April 22 and voted for Hillary, the nomination would be settled. Whether admitted to or not, Hillary's campaign has been kept alive by strategic GOP voting, hoping to win her the nomination.

      Barack's best ace-in-the hole involves his stated intent to end the Iraq War and fix the U.S. economy. According to Columbia University Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, those two issues are attached at the hip. Ending the Iraq War will help to fix the economy by saving $12-16 billion a month and resuscitate the beleaguered U.S. dollar. Ending the war and fixing the economy will carry far more weight with voters than the color of a candidate's skin. “I think we should find that that person who is going to be best able to no just defeat John McCain, but also lead the country. I happen to be that person,” said Barack, realizing that there's more at stake than simply beating McCain. “I will make that argument forcefully to superdelegates prior to the convention,” believing he's best positioned to lead the country. It's disgraceful that skin color ever entered the fight for the Democratic nomination.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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