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Biden Brings Bad News to Ukraine
by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700
Copyright
April 21, 2014
All Rights Reserved.
Arriving
on Air Force One in Kiev, 70-year-old Vice President Joe Biden carried very
little in his pockets, after 39-ytear-old interim Prime Minister Arseniy
Yatsenyuk told NBC’s David Gregory April 20 on “Meet the Press” he wanted the
U.S. to rebuild the Ukrainian army.
Biden’s trip does little to defuse tensions in Eastern Ukraine where three
Russian-speaking separatists were killed yesterday in a drive-by-shooting. Yatsenyuk’s public plea to have the
U.S. rebuild the Ukrainian military doesn’t sit well with the Kremlin, already
suspicious of the Feb. 22 revolution that toppled 64-year-old Russian-backed
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.
Suspicions in the Kremlin, led by 61-year-old Russian President Vladimir
Putin, blame the U.S. for sponsoring Feb 22 coup.. Biden’s trip to Kiev was supposed to
support Kiev’s new leaders, despite falling short of Yatsenyuk’s demands.
Biden announced only technical assistance to Ukraine’s struggling government to
boost energy production. Offering
“unconventional” technical assistance for boosting natural gas production, Biden
fell fall short of hopes that Uncle Sam would bailout Ukraine’s economic woes. Recent discussions with the European
Union and International Monetary Fund raised the specter of implementing
austerity programs to repay the billions in loans expected to salvage the
Ukrainian economy. Pie-in-sky
promises about a Western bailout raise unanswered questions about who
orchestrated the Feb. 22 revolt that toppled Yanukovich. Rebel leader 42-year-old former
heavyweight champion boxer Vitale Klitschko is nowhere to be seen. Now that the country’s in chaos, its
49-year-old interim President Oleksandr Turchinov and Yatsenyuk hope the U.S.
will pay Ukraine’s bills.
When Yanukovich chose Nov. 30, 2013 to opt for a $16 billion Russian deal
on energy and Ukranian debt
restructuring, the so-called protest movement got out of hand, leading the Feb.
22 coup. While hosting the Sochi
Winter Olympics the Western-backed coup made no sense to Putin, knowing the
struggling cash-strapped Ukrainian economy.
When Putin reacted one week after the Sochi Olympics seizing Crime March
1, Western officials overreacted to what was purely Russian efforts to protect
its national security interests in Ukraine.
With an anti-Russia, pro-Western government in place, Putin countered the
coup seizing Crimea. Ukraine faces
a far greater economic crisis than existed before Yanukovich. Without paying its energy bills,
Ukraine’s faces the very real prospects of a Russian gas cutoff. Biden’s trip hopes to offer Ukraine
some options to buying Russian natural gas.
Biden walks a tightrope promising Kiev’s new government anything that
would antagonize poor relations with Moscow.
Putin has been surprised by U.S. willingness to toss Russia under the bus
to promote Ukraine’s pro-Western, anti-Kremlin government. “[Biden] wanted to come to Kiev to
send a very clear message of the United States’ support for Ukraine’s democracy,
unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said an unnamed U.S. official
traveling with the VP. Putin can’t
fathom U.S. backing from an insurgent group that toppled Yanukovich’s duly
elected government. Whether or not
the U.S. backed Ukraine’s “democracy,” it’s difficult to back Urkaine’s leaders
with little support from the military.
Refusing to fight in Eastern Ukraine, the military showed that they don’t
back Kiev’s new government. Backing
Ukraine’s unpopular post-revolutionary government makes no sense.
Instead of
antagonizing Putin, the White House should find common ground with Moscow on new
representative leaders. While
Ukraine should eventually hold new elections, for the time being they should
select leaders acceptable to Kiev and Eastern Ukraine. With Turchinov and Yatsenyuk unable
to command the military, they should step down, either replaced by a U.N. caretaker government or find consensus candidates
picked by a delegation from Kiev and Eastern Ukraine. While Biden wants the April 16
Geneva Accord implemented to prevent Russia from taking more territory, the real
issue should be what’s good for Ukraine.
If Moscow steps in temporarily to prevent more violence, the West
shouldn’t buy Yatsenyuk’s unfounded warnings of a Kremiln takeover. If there’s a need to peacekeepers now, it’s because Kiev can’t provide adequate security
around the country.
Offering support to the new Ukrainian government at the expense of
U.S.-Russian relations is counterproductive.
With the U.S. counting on Moscow to back its plans in Syria, Iran and the
pullout in Afghanistan, the White House needs cooperation from Moscow more than
it needs to back Ukraine’s failed leadership.
Turchinov and Yatsenyuk do not enjoy popular support across Ukraine,
prompting early resignations to find leaders with more common ground. If the White House wants to avoid
civil war, Biden should tell Turchinov and Yatsenyuk that they must relinquish
power for the good of Ukraine.
Backing Ukraine’s post-revolutionary leaders that command neither military
control nor consensus in Eastern Ukraine is the shortest distance to civil war. Insisting on the new government’s
resignation would set the right tone and open up a new dialogue with Moscow.
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