by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 17, 2015
All Rights Reserved.

              After years of empty denials, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator 55-year-old Mohammad Zarif gave away Iran’s real intent behind its nuclear program.  If U.S. and United Nations’ sanctions aren’t lifted at the end of negotiations, Iran will enrich uranium “without limitations,” threatening what Western powers feared all along:  That Iran seeks weapons grade uranium to build A-bombs.  Playing a dangerous game of chicken with the so-called P5+1, including the U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany, Zarif  threatened to put the pedal-to-the-metal when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program.  Zarif’s remarks hark back to former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declaring Iran a “nuclear state” Feb. 11, 2010.  Ahmadinejad boasted about enriching uranium to over 20%, denying military applications.  Threatening to enrich “without limitations” can only be interpreted one way.

             Parroting the demands of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Zarif threatened world powers that if Iran did not get its way of immediate sanctions relief, it would pursue unlimited enrichment activities.  “If we take the path of confrontation, the U.S. and U.N. will continue with their sanctions, and Iran will continue with its enrichment program.  Without any limitations,” Zarif told TV channel Euronews in Lisbon.  With conservatives on Capitol Hill taking an active role in the Lausanne outcome, Zarif said exactly the wrong things, admitting Iran has an active military component to its enrichment program.  Threatening enrichment “without limitations” confirms the P5+1’s worst suspicions that Iran has a secret military component to its nuclear program.  It makes no sense of threaten “without limitations” if Tehran didn’t have an active military program.

             Despite the Obama administration’s attempt at a foreign policy victory, there’s enough doubt in Europe and especially on Capitol Hill to scuttle the deal.  Zarif’s overplaying his hand hoping to get more capitulation from the P5+1 as the final deal takes shape.  Zarif wants what he calls a win-win situation for Tehran, namely, Iran temporally shelves its enrichment program in exchange for sanctions relief.  No matter what the White House salesmanship, conservatives in Congress won’t settle without unrestricted U.N inspections. Khamenei insists there can be no inspections at Iran’s military sites, already a deal breaker.  When you add to that the demand to have complete sanctions relief without any verification, the deal is far from done. Threatening now to go full-bore on enrichment activity if they don’t get immediate sanctions relief, Zarif may have shot Tehran in the foot.

             Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani admonished Congress for playing any role in the White House negotiations on behalf of the United States.  “Our partner is not the U.S. Congress [he mean’t House] or Senate, our partner is a group called the P5+1,” said Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, hoping Iran could bypass the main U.S. law-making body.  Unlike Iran, where the parliament and president have no power next to the supreme leader, the U.S. has a trilateral form of government.  No executive branch can enter into a treaty or arms control agreement without Senate approval.  “Unfortunately the United States started . . using the phrase “phased sanctions,” said Zarif, expressing the Ayatollah’s refusal to sign onto any deal that doesn’t involve immediate sanctions relief.  Zarif’s warning about “unlimited enrichment” sends a warning shot across the bow of the U.N. and U.S.

             Khaemenei, Rouhani and Zarif all want a face-saving way out of the crippling U.S. and U.N. sanctions that have harmed the Iranian economy.  While talking tough, the White House is prepared to walk away from the negotiations if Iran continues to play games.  Talking about enriching “without limitations” only confirms the worst suspicions about Iran’s nuclear program:  That it’s aimed at building an A-bomb.  Whatever the “framework” the P5+1 reached with Iran April 2, it’s subject to verification, especially the part requiring intrusive International Atomic Energy Agency inspections.  Zarif believes the framework he accepted didn’t included intrusive inspections or a “phased” in end to U.S. and U.N. sanctions.  With a June 30 deadline approaching, Tehran’s getting that sinking feeling that the P5+1, especially the U.S., means business when it comes to Tehran meeting their end of the bargain.

             Hinting that there’s trouble down the line in completing a deal, Zarif looks to renege on the “framework” reached Arpil 2 in Lausanne where Tehran would submit to intrusive IAEA inspections for a “phased” end to the economic and travel sanctions.  “On the day that we agree we will go to the Security Council and the Security Council will adopt a resolution which will terminate all previous resolutions and well set the stage for the terminations of all sanctions . . .” Zarif told Euronews.  Since Obama agreed to let Congress review any final nuke deal with Iran, Khamenei, Rouhani and Zarif don’t have the luxury of calling the shots.  If the deal fails, Iran goes at its own peril when it comes to its uranium enrichment program.  “This is very clear, there won’t be phased, there won’t be suspensions, it is very clear the agreement that we announced,” said Zarif, hoping to continue calling the shots.

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