Obama Fine-Tuning His Libya Policy

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 16, 2011
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         Finally on the same page as Britain and France, President Barack Obama equivocated on Libya, uncertain whether the U.S. should take a lead role or play a backseat to NATO.  While the official U.S. policy handed NATO April 4 the primary role of conducting Libyan operations, Barack has agreed in recent days that there can be no compromise with respect to ousting Libyan President Col. Moammar Kadafi.  When the U.N. Security Council approved using force against Libya March 20, it was unclear whether they gave the green light to regime change.  While the intent of the U.N. resolution was to protect Libayn civilians, it was unclear whether getting rid of Kadafi was one in the same.  With Kadafi’s track record of violence and terrorism, French Prime Minister Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister David Cameron concluded that they must get rid of Kadafi.

            Signaling that Obama is now on the same page, White House officials are feverishly looking for an African asylum country capable of skirting the Hague’s International Criminal Court, where Kadafi currently faces charges for past criminal acts, including the Dec, 21, 1988 bombing of Pan Am 103, killing 270 passengers and flight crew.  Since passing bombing operation to NATO April 4, Kadafi has made headway shelling rebel-controlled cities, spreading his ground forces out to evade NATO air strikes.  Kadafi seems content now to fight a guerrilla war against pro-reform rebels, complaining that NATO’s bombing missions haven’t stopped Kadafi’s relentless assault on rebel-controlled areas.  Obama’s taken a beating in the polls because the ambiguous U.S. policy of protecting Libyan civilians and enforcing a “no-fly zone” doesn’t meet the national security test.

            Getting Kadafi out of his bunker is no easy matter, especially without an asylum deal, letting Kadafi and his entourage escape the country.  About half of all African countries are not signers to the Rome Statute, requiring extradition rogue tyrants for criminal prosecution at the Hague.  Congress has also not signed onto the Rome Statute to prevent intelligence agents, soldiers and U.S. officials from extradition and criminal prosecution for alleged war crimes.  U.S. officials claim the U.S. and NATO have made good progress since military operations began March 20.  “Without a doubt, it is frustrating working trough all this to get maximum effect for our efforts and dealing with all these variants,” said an unnamed U.S. official, referring to coordinating attacks with NATO to avoid collateral damage and also the perception that the mission has changed to one of targeting Kadafi.

            Obama can’t have it both ways:  Pretending, on the one hand, to play a backseat to NATO, while, at the same time, complaining about the lack of progress.  If he expects to reverse his slide the polls, it’s going to happen when the U.S. plays a decisive role in driving Kadafi out.  “There are aspects of the passage of time that work against Kadafi, if we can cut him off from weapons, materiel and cash,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security director, answering questions about rebels’ secession plans for a new government.  Rhodes believes that, in time, the right rebel leadership will eventually emerge.  As the Libyan operation developed, growing concerns were raised about the composition of the opposition, concerned about their potential ties to al-Qaeda or other radical groups.  American envoy Chris Stevens was sent to Benghazi to learn more about the Transitional National Council.

            Whatever the composition of the eventual government, NATO knows that Kadafi can’t continue in power.  While no deal has been made for Kadafi’s exile, discussions are underway with former Mahmoud Jibril, a former government planning expert and likely successor, at least in a transitional government.  Jibril has already met several times with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and other foreign ministers who met April 12 in Doha, Qatar about the Libyan crisis.  Behind the scenes, the CIA and British MI6 have been infiltrating Libyan ground positions to provide better coordinates to U.S. and NATO bombing missions.  While Obama has ruled out unilateral U.S. ground support, he hasn’t ruled out joining NATO ground operations to pressure Kadafi to get out.  So far, the 68-year-old Libyan leader has been content to stay in his bunker, making occasional photo-ops in Tripoli.

            Obama must get off the fence and openly join France and Britain in ridding North Africa of its last Stalinist leader.  Kadafi threw his support in 1998 to Serbian tyrant Slobodan Milsocevic’s genocide against Muslim ethnic Albanians, before former President Bill Clinton launched his war that eventually ended Milocevic’s reign of terror.  Without a focused NATO bombing campaign, Kadafi will continue to stay holed up in his bunker, allowing his country to turn to rubble.  Libyan opposition forces led by Jibril and University of Washington exiled economics professor Al Tarhouni are busy forming a shadow government to take over when Kadafi falls.  “With respect to the opposition, we are learning more all the time,” said Clinton, less worried about the shape of things to come following Kadafi.  While there’s still unanswered questions, there’s no question that Kadafi must go.

About the Author

 John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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