by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 15, 2003
All Rights Reserved.

asking in the afterglow of a dazzling victory of Iraq, the White House looks at the bigger picture, trying to size up remaining obstacles to a comprehensive Middle East peace. Since Israel captured the Golan Heights in 1967, Syria has been one of Israel's bitterest enemies, seeking its destruction by sponsoring terrorism, especially in Lebanon's guerrilla-infested Bekaa Valley. Looking ahead, President Bush has his eyes focused on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conundrum, something eluding U.S. presidents since Harry S. Truman. Calling Syria a "rogue nation," White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer asked Syria to "seriously ponder the implications" of harboring fugitives of Saddam's regime and developing its own weapons of mass destruction. Faced with an enormous task of overhauling Iraq, the U.S. doesn't want Syria sabotaging a new Iraq, as it has Israel for the last 55 years.

      Mopping up in Saddam's hometown of Tikrit, the Pentagon experienced a strange déjà vu, watching, as they did in Afghanistan, Saddam Hussein drop off the radar screen. U.S. intelligence suggests that key Iraqi officials—possibly Saddam himself—fled to Syria, where the U.S. military found several private planes ditched near the border town of Al Qaim. Though the Syrians deny giving safe passage to Saddam's entourage, they also said that movement over the border isn't their problem. Threatening sanctions, the U.S. "will examine possible measures of a diplomatic, economic, and other nature as we move forward," said Sec. of State Colin L. Powell, telling Damascus to think twice about sheltering fugitives or producing chemical weapons. Syria's 37-year-old leader Bashar Assad may not get the consequences of providing safe haven to renegade Iraqis.

      Putting Syria on notice doesn't necessarily indicate it's next on the Pentagon's hit list. Ratcheting up the rhetoric tells young Assad to watch his step as the U.S. gets a handle on managing post-Saddam Iraq. With the mission accomplished and Iraq in chaos, the White House has far too much on its plate to consider new military actions. Despite interfering with U.S. plans, Syria has no strategic importance other than helping to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Funding terrorists like Syrian-backed Hizbollah makes a bumpy road to peace, especially with Palestinian terror groups spiraling out of control since the intifada of Sept. 2000. With the Palestinian Authority in shambles, Arafat was forced to cede power and appoint a prime minister, Abu Mahmoud. Arafat now needs to stop colluding with Syria and let Mahmoud form a Cabinet and move the peace process along

      No one knows for sure where the Iraqi hierarchy scattered in the final days of Saddam's regime. But the U.S. military already intercepted busloads of Syrian sympathizers ready to commit jihad for Saddam. Supplying the Iraqi military with Russian-made night vision goggles and high-tech jamming equipment didn't play well at the Pentagon. Secretary of State Donald H. Rumsfeld believes that Syria allowed "some Iraqis" to cross its borders and find safe haven. With the Iraq operation winding down, Syria thinks it's now in the Pentagon's crosshairs. Despite concerns, the U.S. has no intention of taking on Syria. "There is no list, there is no war plan right now to go attack someone else either for the purposes of overthrowing their leadership for the purposes of imposing democratic values," said Powell, cleverly taking the focus off "regime change." Powell didn't rule out targeted strikes on terrorist nests.

      Washington recalls Syria's strong ties to the old Soviet Union during the Cold War. Bashar's father, former Syrian President Hafez al-Assad, forged close relationships with Russia and France, contributing to his attachment to Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, now busy playing both sides of the fence. Despite the harsh words, the White House has no stomach for further conflict with its mammoth undertaking in post-Saddam Iraq. With so much time spent on toppling Saddam, Bush will need to redirect energies toward salvaging the economy heading into next year's elections. Growing concerns about the Pentagon shifting to its next target are largely unfounded. Battles brewing in the U.N. about post-Saddam Iraq should keep State Department busy for the foreseeable future. Reconciling with France, Germany and Russia, Bush will try to mend fences and placate growing concerns about missing financial opportunities.

      With little to gain in Syria, the Pentagon wants to avoid further armed conflict. Putting Bashar Assad on notice, Bush signaled he expects Syria to play by the rules as the U.S. sets its "roadmap" for a Middle East peace. Landing the biggest piece of real estate since the Louisiana Purchase, the U.S. has all it can handle quelling anarchy and building a stable government in Iraq. With the economy needing TLC and presidential elections on the horizon, the White House won't embark on new military ventures anytime soon. Parked in Iraq, Syria must make peace with its new neighbor, who shows no signs of leaving the region. Without plans for "regime change," Powell left the door open for surgical strikes, should Syria interfere with Bush's peace making plans. Watching Saddam's fate is a rude reminder to hostile regimes that it's best to work through diplomatic channels.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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