by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 14, 2005
All Rights Reserved.

ith time running out, Los Angeles Major James K. Hahn fights for his political life, lagging at least 18 points behind City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa. When they met four years ago, Hahn was the darling in the African American community, riding the legacy of his outgoing father, the late county supervisor James Kenneth [“Kenny”] Hahn. Voters went with a household name, turning aside Villaraigosa's formidable challenge. After ending the reign of former LAPD Chief Bernard Parks in 2002, Hahn no longer enjoys the same support. Forfeiting Parks' endorsement was no surprise. But losing the endorsement of former Laker great and popular LA businessman Earvin “Magic” Johnson spells trouble for Hahn in the May 17 runoff. Not only did Villarraigosa land Magic he scored former LA Mayor Republican Richard Riordan, a blow to capturing the Westside and Valley's white vote.

      Popular San Fernando Valley resident, former California Assembly speaker and mayoral candidate Bob Hertzberg also threw support to Villaraigosa. Four years ago, Villaraigosa lost by only 8%, a tiny margin when you consider that black voters account for 16% of the total vote. Back then, not only did blacks back Hahn but so did conservative voters on the Westside and San Fernando Valley. Hahn marginalized Villaraigosa as a left-wing radical, out of the mainstream. In 2001, Villaraigosa was an unknown commodity—today he's a respected member of the City Council. Winning over Magic and Riordan tells black and white voters that Villaraigosa is part of LA's political establishment. Losing their endorsement tells all voters that Hahn no longer has a viable constituency. Between now and the election, Hahn has no choice other than to go negative.

      Hahn's troubles stem not only from widely publicized scandals at City Hall but from his of lack charisma. Cheerleading for the nation's second largest city requires abundant enthusiasm, something Hahn lacks. Four years ago, Hahn was a safe play. Today he's a symbol of mediocrity. Despite his years as Speaker of the California Assembly, Villaraigosa gained more visibility—and credibility—joining the City Council. He's no longer the Hispanic candidate for mayor: He's the peoples' candidate who happens to be Hispanic. With all his endorsements, it's going to be difficult to paint Villaraigosa as a left-wing extremist. That worked in 2001 but poses greater risks in 2005. Going too negative makes Hahn look desperate as the election draws near. Yet Hahn must find some way to cut into Villaraigosa's 18-point lead in the Valley and 34% advantage in South Central.

      Campaigning as a law-and-order candidate, Hahn attempts to appeal to conservative voters. Bringing Police Chief William Bratton to Los Angeles was Hahn's crowning achievement, yet, ironically, probably cost him another term. Bratton looks more like a candidate for mayor than police chief. Spunky and articulate, Bratton makes Hahn looks banal and anemic. Hahn's finding out that conservative voters—especially seniors—have more issues than just crime. They must also live in the city, increasingly paralyzed by high prices and gridlock, something difficult to fix by either candidate. “This is a serious job,” said Hahn, raising doubts about Antonio's commitment to the City Council and now mayor. “How do we know he's not using the job to run for governor or something else?” asked the mayor, painting Villaraigosa as a rank political opportunist.

      Negative campaigning involves more than slinging mud to be effective. Political ambitions are a good thing. Hahn's attempt to raise doubts about Villaraigosa's commitment makes the case for voters. Voters look to energetic and talented candidates that seem over qualified for the job. Hahn's remarks actually argue for changing management at City Hall. What's more appealing: A candidate with a bright future or one that looks close to retirement? Hahn's correct in recognizing that his opponent looks more and more like a bright star for higher office. That's something positive. It's difficulty for Hahn to portray Villaraigosa as too left to govern when he's won the endorsement of ex-mayor Dick Riordan. It doesn't help Hahn that West Valley residents City Controller Laura Chick and former mayoral candidate Bob Hertzberg jumped on the Villaraigosa bandwagon.

      Between now and the election, Villaraigosa can call the shots, playing it safe and avoiding the pitfalls of inexperienced politicians. Sitting on a comfortable lead, there's no need to take unnecessary risks, including more televised debating—a great opportunity for the underdog to make up lost ground. In the late rounds, Hahn needs a knockout punch to prevail on May 17. Even with superb coaching, Hahn won't get too many more chances at Antonio's chin. “It's just one in a series of events suggesting all the momentum is with Villaraigosa,” said Cal State Northridge political scientist Tom Hogen-Esch, seeing the handwriting on the walls. While it's not over yet, Hahn suffers from the same syndrome that afflicted former Gov. Gray Davis: He gave it his best shot, it wasn't good enough and voters spanked him on Election Day. With only a month to go, Hahn is getting that sinking feeling.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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