Afghan's Suicide Bombing Future

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 7, 2013
All Rights Reserved.                                         

       When former President George W. Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom Oct. 7, 2001, no one imagined the mission wouldn’t be complete 12 years later.  It didn’t take long to drive the Taliban out of Kabul Nov. 15, 2001, only to watch the pesky radical Islamic movement wage a low intensity bloody civil war that claims more civilian and military lives everyday.  U.S.-backed Afghan President Hamid Karzai has walked a razor’s edge, placating U.S. demands, while, at the same time, feeding the Taliban monster.  Like Karzai’s would-be predecessor, Ahmad Shah Massoud that led the Northern Alliance’s fight against the Taliban, Karzai’s days are numbered, no matter what U.S. counterinsurgency strategy.  Massoud, who would have led the new Afghanistan, met his fate Sept. 9, 2001, when a Taliban suicide bomber infiltrated his inner circle.

             Fast-forward 12 years later to today when a  Taliban suicide bomber struck a U.S military convoy, killing six Americans and one Afghan doctor.  As President Barack Obama’s projected withdrawal date nears next year, suicide bombing becomes routine.  Picturing a dismal future, Afghanistan faces more suicide bombing and roadside bombs until the Taliban eventually conquers Kabul.  Only hours after Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and U.S. Afghan Commander Gen. Martin Dempsey landed in Bagram Air Force Base, the Taliban showed the White House of what’s ahead.  Since Obama took office Jan. 20, 2008, U.S. casualty rates have quadruped, following former Gen. David Petraeus troop surge strategy.  Believing the same strategy that worked in Iraq would work in Afghanistan, Obama agreed to add 30,000 more troops in Dec. 2, 2009, raising the U.S. total to over 100,000.

             Obama acquiesced to what he thought was Petraeus’ superior expertise, only later resigning in disgrace as CIA director Nov. 9, 2012.  All the infinite wisdom of a troop surge resulted in quadrupling U.S. casualty rates, now standing at more deaths since Obama’s 2009 inauguration than the prior eight years of the war.  With 2,198 total deaths since Oct. 7, 2001, 1,569 occurred on Obama’s watch, with only 629 occurring over the prior eight years.  “There are American and Afghan casualties,” reported the U.S. embassy about today’s suicide blast.  “We are still investigating the incident and cannot confirm deaths at this time,” referring to six Americans killed today, including a State Department employee.  Proudly claiming responsibility, Taliban spokesman Qari Yousef Ahmaadi claimed the Zabul suicide car bombing.  Today’s seven deaths bring the April total to 30.

             U.S. Marine Corp Gen. Joseph Dunford, head of the International Security Assistance Force [IASF], promised Afghans would be ready to defend themselves by the time U.S. troops plan to leave in 2014.  While optimistic, Dunford has no basis for the same optimistic claims made over the last 12 years.  Promising to beef up Karzai’s security force, Dunford ignores reliable reports that Karzai’s security force has been infiltrated by Taliban loyalists.  Recent polls in Afghanistan show the Taliban receiving far more backing than the U.S. military.  Karzai, himself, routinely rips the U.S. military for collateral damage, among other mishaps prosecuting an impossible guerrilla war.  “We were waiting for one of them,” Ahmadi told the Associated Press.  Boasting that “it was our good luck that both appeared at the same time,” the Taliban scored some serious points.

             Twelve years into the Afghan War, the U.S. has no control over reigning in the Taliban’s relentless guerrilla war.  While Dunford promises Afghan military control by 2014, the Taliban seems to be landing the lethal blows.  Car bombing a U.S. convoy only hours after Gen. Dempsey arrived at Bagram shows the Taliban can strike at will.  Petreus’ counterinsurgency strategy involved buying off Pashtun warlords in the Taliban-rich Kandahar region.  Showing no loyalty to the U.S., the Pentagon has thrown money down a rat hole trying to buy off the Taliban and other insurgent groups, including what’s left of al-Qaeda.  Conservatives on Capitol Hill blame Obama for telegraphing a withdrawal date, emboldening the Taliban to take more aggressive measures against U.S. forces.  Whether or not the U.S. speculates about an end date to the Afghan War, the Taliban continues to lash out.

             Before more young Americans go to their graves in Afghanistan, the president must revise his counterinsurgency strategy that places too many U.S. troops in harm’s way.  Between now and the 2014 withdrawal date, the Pentagon should take U.S. troops out of the line of fire.  Continuing to fight the Taliban on their terms only adds to U.S. casualties at a time of diminishing return.  When the U.S. finally pulls the plug on Afghanistan in 2014, it won’t have completed its mission of stabilizing the Karzai government.  If not supported by the Afghan people, there’s nothing the Pentagon can do to change the hearts-and-minds of Afghan citizens.  More suicide bombing will eventually make its way into Karzai’s inner circle to upend the U.S.-backed government.  Losing more U.S. troops won’t bring back the lives of those lost nor assure any future outcome.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.