by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 5, 2003
All Rights Reserved.

aced with an ugly mess in Baghdad, the Pentagon now hopes to declare victory without finishing off Saddam's regime, busy digging deeper into the catacombs under the Iraqi capital. Parking U.S. forces at Baghdad Airport, the military wants to convince the world that Saddam is no longer in control. When the war started, the State Department got the cold shoulder asking governments to close Iraqi embassies, citing the inevitability of the war. Putting the cart before the horse, the Pentagon now wants to declare victory without taking Baghdad. "A vise is closing and the days of a brutal regime are coming to an end," said President Bush, speaking to 20,000 cheering supporters at Camp Lejune, N.C., the home of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force. "Our destination is Baghdad, and we will accept nothing less than complete and final victory," declared Bush, inconsistent with plans to establish a new regime.

      Both Secretary of State Donald H. Rumsfeld and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Richard B. Meyers speak about coalition forces controlling ever-expanding portions of Iraq. Calling Saddam's regime "irrelevant," the new plan calls for boxing Iraq into a corner and then establishing a new government. Instead of toppling Baghdad, the Pentagon wants to methodically take over vital government functions, including water, power and communications. "Whatever is happening in Baghdad is almost irrelevant to what's going on in the rest of the country," said Meyers, explaining how coalition fighters can avoid a Stalingrad-like street battles that would involve incalculable civilian casualties. While it sounds like a plan, foreign governments still have difficulty recognizing new regimes before the old one falls. With coalition forces having difficulty mopping up parts of Iraq, declaring a new government seems premature.

      Since firing the first shot on March 20, the war can't end until U.S. forces take Baghdad, the seat of Saddam's government. Declaring a new regime with U.S. administrators or Iraqi exiles won't gain international acceptance until the current Baghdad government falls. Establishing a new Iraqi entity before ousting the controlling legal authority has about as much legitimacy as "governments in exile." "Just leave the furniture where it is," said an unnamed Pentagon official, acknowledging the plan involves doing an end run around Saddam's regime. No matter how much you wish to avoid bloodshed, Saddam won't go quietly until he's crushed militarily. With 25% of Iraq's population, Bagdad isn't only a symbolic target. It represents the hub—and legitimacy—of Saddam's power that must be toppled before claiming allied victory. Driving Saddam's regime deeper into hiding only postpones the inevitable.

      Unlike in Afghanistan, Saddam's Baath Party loyalists haven't yet headed for the hills, currently hunkering down somewhere underneath downtown Baghdad. "We have the rat trapped," said retired Army Maj. Gen Edward Atkeson, former deputy chief of staff for intelligence, supporting the idea of trapping Saddam in Baghdad and overtaking the rest of the country. While tanks from the Army's 3rd Infantry Division rolled into central Baghdad, Saddam appeared on Iraqi TV mingling with exuberant crowds, in an apparent attempt to dispel Pentagon skepticism about his survival. No one knows the authenticity of the videotape or whether it was prerecorded before the opening Cruise Missile barrage on March 20. Appearing on TV signals that Saddam is still in charge, making it more difficult for the Pentagon to claim victory by suddenly declaring a new government.

      Awaiting the Army's heavily mechanized 4th Infantry Division, the Pentagon finds itself in a holding pattern at the newly renamed Baghdad Airport. Eventually they will have to storm Baghdad, destroying Saddam's loyalists still protecting what's left of his crumbling regime. No matter what the risks or sacrifices, Saddam will have to be rooted out. Simply running around his encampment or declaring new governments won't unseat his regime until the remnants of his power base are eventually destroyed. "The battle for Baghdad will be slow and methodical and it should be," said Maj. Gen. William Nash, a former commander of U.S. forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina and an armored brigade commander in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, acknowledging the Pentagon's plan of leaving Saddam in place—at least for now. Though the Pentagon chooses to pause until they have sufficient reinforcements, they must eventually go for broke.

      No parallel government will convince the world that the U.S. defeated Saddam's regime. Concerns about bloody street fighting—or even chemical attack—can't deter U.S. forcers from finishing the job in Baghdad. Whether Saddam burrows deeper or not, the Pentagon must chase him down and finish him off. Before Gen. Jay M. Garner punches in as U.S. viceroy in Iraq, Baghdad will have to fall. With squabbling already going on about a post-Saddam era, the U.S. should remind the U.N. that the current campaign isn't yet over. It's premature to designate new civil administrators before Saddam succumbs. Discussing how exiled Iraqis might plug into a new government takes the Pentagon's eye off the immediate task of ending Saddam's rule. Everyone wants the war over as soon as possible—but the Pentagon can't declare victory and set up a new government until Saddam is finally defeated.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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