by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 4, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

en. Hillary Rodham Clinton's (D-N.Y.) last firewall to save her flagging campaign developed visible cracks, as new polls showed her lead slipping in Pennsylvania. She hoped to stave off the charge of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), insisting that she wouldn't quit, dragging the race to Aug. 28 Democratic National Convention in Denver. Without pulling off a hefty win in Pennsylvania, Hillary will be pushed to throw in the towel. Obama resisted growing calls for Clinton to step aside, encouraging her to keep on truckin'. With polls showing her once double-digit lead slipping, Pennsylvania voters may bring a merciful end to an increasingly bitter campaign, hurting Democrats' chances in November. Whatever slight momentum Hillary earned March 4 in Ohio and Texas, she shot herself in the foot telling tall tales about her harrowing days in Tuzla, Bosnia.

      Anti-American and racist YouTube images of Barack's minister Rev. Jeremiah Wright, played before March 4 primary, helped Hillary, together with strategic GOP crossover voting, to win Ohio and Texas. While Clinton fanned Rev. Wright's flames as long as possible, revelations about her limited foreign policy role in Northern Ireland and Bosnia changed the media focus. Her concocted account of her harrowing 1998 encounter with snipers' bullets at the Bosnian, Tuzla airstrip created an undeniable credibility breakdown. Clinton was forced to admit “she was human” and somehow “misspoke.” There was no misspeaking reading her own script, at odds with her 2003 book, “Living History.” When CBS News replayed video of Hillary greeting children with her daughter Chelsea, the wheels fell off her campaign. Pennsylvania seems ready to help end her misery.

      Clinton got more bad news March 28 in Pennsylvania when U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, son of the popular late Penn. Gov. Robert P. Casey, endorsed Obama, helping him with working-class white voters. Obama also benefited from his February 20 endorsement by Teamsters president Jim Hoffa, now helping him Pennsylvania. Barack also won the endorsement of Henry Nicholas and the Philadelphia branch of the National Union of Hospital and Health Care Employees, boosting his chances among AFL-CIO union members. Obama also won the endorsement of Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal and former Montana Gov. John Melchor, spelling trouble for Hillary in Montana's June 3 primary. A new Quinnipac University telephone poll showed Clinton's once Pennsylvania double-digit lead slipping to nine percent. Other polls show Obama either even or within the statistical margin of error.

      No one could have imagined when Iowa caucused Jan. 3 that Pennsylvania's 188 delegates would become so pivotal to the Democratic race. Because Hillary staked her campaign on her superior experience to Obama, voters relied heavily on her self-reported resumé. When CBS uncovered her fabrications about Bosnia, it damaged her credibility, diverting attention away from Barack's problems with Rev. Wright. Now Hillary faces more problems for discrepancies in her role in Northern Ireland peacemaking. Irish Nobel laureate peacemaker David Trimble set the record straight, saying Hillary played no substantive role. When her recently released White House documents indicated that she supported the North American Free Trade Agreement, it opened up another credibility front, questioning her stated reservations and opposition to NAFTA before the Ohio and Texas primaries.

      Obama has begun the arduous task of reassuring Democratic voters how he intends to compete vigorously and beat GOP presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), whose policy on Iraq mirrors that of President George W. Bush. While Hillary, too, promises to end the Iraq War, the fact remains she voted to authorize Bush to use force. Never before has the choice between Democrats and Republicans been so stark: McCain advocates continuing the war while Barack or Hillary promise to end it. McCain has no answer for how he intends to fund the war at $12-16 billion a month and balance the budget without slashing vital government programs, like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and Federal aid to education. Many respected economists believe the economy can't fully recover until the war ends. Bush and now McCain haven't accepted that reality.

      As Pennsylvania draws near, it becomes more evident that Hillary's days are numbered. Barack has picked up more and more endorsements, as Democratic leaders line up behind the eventual nominee. When her husband, former President Bill Clinton, went ballistic in San Francisco trying to woo superdelegates, it spelled the end of Hillary's campaign. Accepting defeat is never easy, especially for the Clintons whose political dynasty looks more and more tattered. Losing Pennsylvania, or winning by an insignificant margin, spells curtains for Hillary, whose chances of prevailing on superdelegates to overturn the will of primaries and caucuses seem unlikely and unrealistic. If trends continue in Pennsylvania, Barack will roll to an upset victory, staking his claim to the nomination. Whether Hillary wants to face reality or not, it's nearing time to fold her tent.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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