Pentagon's Unrealistic Afghan Plan

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright April 2, 2013
All Rights Reserved.                                         

        Claiming that Afghanistan is not ready to go it alone when U.S. forces pull out in 2014, Commander of the International Security Assistance Force [ISAF] Marine Corps Gen. Joseph Dunford Jr. insisted things would be different soon.  “The conditions are not yet set for a stable-and-secure Afghanistan in the long term from which al-Qaeda and other international extremist groups will not be able to conduct attacks on the West,” Dunford told On the Radar.  Since former President George W. Bush launched Operation Enduring Freedom Oct. 7, 2001, the Pentagon has promised Afghan independence, always coming up short.  Despite 55-year-old Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s critical comments about the U.S. military, another soldier had his throat slit last week bringing the death toll in March to 16.  Since President Barack Obama took office Jan. 20, 2009, U.S. death rates in Afghanistan quadrupled.

             Dunford’s optimistic promises of a strong-and-secure Afghanistan by the U.S. withdrawal date in 2014 don’t match the facts on the ground. Since Obama was sworn in, 1562 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan.  Only 630 U.S. troops were killed in the previous eight years, attesting to a more dangerous strategy, fighting a low-intensity guerrilla war primarily against the former Afghan regime—the Taliban.  Why Dunsford doesn’t name the Taliban is anyone’s guess.  Whether common knowledge or not, Karzai’s security forces have been infiltrated with soldiers with more loyalty to the Taliban—the past Afghan regime that hosted Osama bin Laden—than Karzai’s U.S.-backed government.  Asked whether there’s a “Plan B” in case Karzai’s not ready next year, Dunford insisted, “it’s going to happen.”  Dunford continues to blow the same old smoke about Afghan independence.

             When Obama finally pulled the plug on Iraq Dec. 31, 2011, the U.S.-backed government of Nouri al-Maliki had closer ties to Tehran than Washington.  With over 4,886 U.S. soldiers dead in Iraq, Bush’s ambitious plan of democratizing the Middle East fell flat.  Before the U.S. invasion March 20, 2003, al-Qaeda was not in Iraq and Baghdad was independent of Tehran.  Today, newly minted Secretary of State John Kerry had to beg al-Maliki to stop letting Iran ferry weapons through Iraq to Bashar al-Assad’s Syria.  All the well-intentioned White House and Pentagon plans had only made matters worse.  New Dunford promises to give him more time and he’ll have Afhghanistan ready to defend itself in 2014 are unrealistic.  “I’m confident that we have a plan in place right now to grow the Afghan security forces to the level they need to be in order to secure the country,” insisted Dunford.

             If Iraq is any guide, there’s far more security problems in Afghanistan than Iraq.  Waiting patiently until the U.S. vacates, the Taliban, who just began the traditional Spring offensive by slashing the throat of a U.S. soldier, will eventually topple the Karzai government.  Since Karzai’s government is already infiltrated, it won’t take long to for the Taliban to reclaim power.  Dunford knows that however long the Pentagon stays in Afghanistan, the U.S. fights an uphill battle fighting a guerrilla war to reverse a nationalistic movement.  If the U.S. Congress knew that Dunford’s plan were unattainable, would they continue back present casualty rates that woud sacrifice hundreds of Americans this year?  More empty promises about Afghan security or political stability can’t change the facts on the ground:  That the U.S. faces a relentless guerrilla war with no end in sight.

             Beefing up Afghan security forces is the exact same strategy used by former U.S. Afghan Commander Gen. David Petraeus and his replacement Gen. John Allen.  Neither Dunford nor anyone else can stop Taliban infiltration into Afghanistan security forces.  Talking about how Dunford plans to improve Karazi’s security forces hasn’t worked for the last 12 years and won’t work now.  “The critical piece is to ensure that the Afghan security forces do have the sustainability in the future where they can continue to secure the people and allow the political transition to take place as well as development,” said Dunford.  There’s no sustainability when the Afghan people don’t want U.S. forces occupying their country.  Whether they prefer the Taliban or any other government isn’t for the Pentagon to decide.  If the next Afghan government threatens U.S. interests, the Pentagon should act accordingly.

             Twelve years into the Afghan War, the Pentagon knows that you can’t win a low intensity guerrilla war when the U.S.-backed government has more sympathies to the Taliban and other insurgents than Washington.  While the White House has committed to keeping U.S. forces in harm’s way through 2014, the Pentagon should at least reevaluate its current strategy that has caused a 400% increase in death rates since Obama took office.  Just like the waning days of the Iraq War, the Pentagon should keep U.S. troops out of harm’s way as much as possible.  Reducing casualty rates between now and the U.S. troop pullout should be the Pentagon’s top priority.  Dunford’s plan to build up Afghan security forces is unrealistic and dangerous to U.S. troops.  Pretending that another year or so will do the trick ignores that the U.S. lost its mission years ago when Bin Laden and the Taliban fled.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.