U.S. Slapped in Iraq Vote

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 27, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                                

                 Iraqi Prime Minister and U.S. ally Nouri al-Maliki was slapped at the polls, losing a pivotal parliamentary election to secular, anti-Iranian Shiite politician 64-year-old Ayad Allawi.  Al-Maliki’s defeat raises the possibility of internecine warfare among Shiites, especially those loyal of Iran’s Supreme religious leader Ali Khamenei.  Allawi has far closer relations to Iraq’s Sunni minority, whose lives were marginalized under the al-Maliki government.  Allawi offers hope to Saddam Hussein loyalists and member of the outlawed Baath Party, hoping that they can reclaim some political clout in Iraq’s new government.  Allawi’s narrow victory assures some chaos before a new prime minister is eventually seated.  “On this occasion, I’d like to congratulate the Iraqi people and extend the hand of friendship to all neighboring and world countries,” said Allawi claiming political victory.

            Whether Shiite, Sunni or Kurd, Iraqi’s of all stripes resent the U.S. invasion built on a phony intelligence about the late Saddam Hussein’s alleged weapons of mass destruction.  Highlighting the lingering controversy, Hollywood attempts in “Greenzone,” a fictionalized account of the hidden war between Defense Intelligence and the CIA, whose own intel doubted the presence of WMD.  Iraqi’s watched after the March 20, 2003 invasion their authoritarian regime transformed into anarchy and civil war after dismantling the Iraqi military by the Iraq Provisional Authority headed by former President George W. Bush loyalist 68-year-old L. Paul Bremer III.  “Today is a historic and joyful day which will change for the sake of the Iraqi people,” said Hamid Marouf, an Allawi supporter in Azamiyah, thrilled that Iraq would finally return to the hands of independently-minded Iraqis.

             Al-Maliki, since coming to power May 20, 2006, used radical cleric and U.S. enemy Moqtada al-Sadr as his personal bodyguard, protecting himself against a growing Sunni and Shiite insurgency.  Iraqi Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds remember the bloody eight-year Iran-Iraq War [1980-88], where an estimated 300,000 Iraqis and between 500,000-1 million Iranians lost their lives, all because Saddam invaded Iran.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahamdinejad hosted al-Maliki twice, once Sept. 12, 2006 and Sept. 8, 2007, boasting about close bilateral ties.  It’s no accident that al-Sadr, whose al-Mahdi militia ambushed eight U.S. troops in Sadr City April 4, 2004, fled to Iran Feb. 13, 2007, essentially given political asylum by Ahmadinejad.  Iranians hope to return al-Sadr to power in a radical Shiite theocracy in Iraq once the U.S. pulls out according of the latest treaty in 2011. 

            Since the U.S. invasion March 20, 2003, Iraqis have been victims of violence, anarchy and chaos, resulting in 4,384 U.S. and over 100,000 Iraqi casualties, all due to the U.S. invasion.  Allawi’s March 26 victory opens up more internecine warfare, should al-Maliki not accept the election.  Al-Maliki showed defiance, promising to challenge and not accept the results.  Both Allawi and al-Maliki know that the U.S. is slated to leave Iraq next year, and must form a strong governing coalition or risk more violence and anarchy.  Allawi and al-Maliki also know that al-Qaida lurks in the background, ready to spur more civil war among Iraq’s disparate factions.  Despite past loyalty to al-Maliki, the U.S. could easily work with the English-proficient Allawi, a British-trained physician with a strong Western bent, who served as Iraq’s first appointed post-Saddam prime minister from 2004-2005.

            Calling the Allawi victory an “historic electoral process,” U.S. Amb. Christopher R. Hill and U.S.’s top military commander four-star Gen. Ray Odierno, called on al-Maliki to accept defeat.  During the early days after the fall of Saddam, Allawi didn’t hesitate to go after al-Sadr and other radical groups in the Sunni stronghold of Fallujah and Shiite town of Najaf.  Despite al-Sadr’s known attacks on U.S. forces, al-Maliki continued to placate the 36-year-old cleric, using his al-Mahdi army as a de facto security force.  Al-Maliki assured al-Sadr safe passage to Iran where he plots, along with other clerics loyal to Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to overthrow the Iraqi government and seize power, fulfilling Ahmadinejad and Khamenei’s dream of expanding the Persian Empire to Iraq.  Given al-Maliki’s history, it’s a blessing that he lost to Allawi.

            Al-Maliki got his comeuppance at the polls for betraying his country, making pact with radical Shiite Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Iran.  Buying time before the U.S. exists in 2011, al-Maliki would have relied heavily for security on al-Sadr’s al-Mahdi army, whose forces have known loyalty to Iran’s Republican Guard.  By giving al-Sadr safe passage to Iran, al-Maliki conspired with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Ahmadinejad’s grand plan of eventually annexing Iraq into a new Persian Empire.  Given Iran’s nuclear mischief, the U.S. can ill-afford any collusion between Baghdad and Tehran.  Allawi breaks Iraq’s ties to Tehran, alienates al-Maliki’s incestuous relationship with Khaemenei and Ahmadejad and discourages al-Sadr from returning to Iraq.  While U.S. troops remain at 95,000, they should assist Allawi in providing al-Maliki gracious exit before Iraq plunges into civil war.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.