by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 17, 2015
All Rights Reserved.

                Faced with the prospects of early retirement on Election Day March 17, 65-year-old Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu promised anti-Palestinian voters there’d be no Palestinian State under his watch. Locked in a virtual dead heat with 54 year-old Labor Party leader Yitzhak “Bougie” Herzog and 56-year-old Hautnah Party Leader Tzipi Livni, forecasters predict Herzog and Livni will pull out a narrow victory, unsure whether they can cobble together a coalition government with of enough liberal parties to make up a majority of 120 votes in the Israeli parliament.  Tzipi’s been gunning for Netanyahu since she ran against him for prime minister and lost in 2009.  Rolling the dice March 3, Netanyahu delivered a passionate plea before a joint session of Congress warning against the White House-brokered Geneva nuke deal with Iran, insisting it paves the way for the Ayatollah’s first A-bomb.

             Choosing between Netanyahu and his 56-year-old ultraconservative Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beiteinu Party, voters seek change because of economic challenges, causing Israel inflation and low growth.  Netanyahu’s Likud Party trails Herzog’s Labor Party, not primarily because of Netanyahu’s appearance before Congress but because of mundane economic issues facing Israeli citizens.  Coming out in droves, Israeli Arabs also want Netanyahu out for different reasons but largely because he won’t force Israel to make a peace deal with Hamas, now branded in Egypt as a terror group.  Herzog and Livni sell Bibi to voters as a war monger when, in fact, he reluctantly got into the 2014 six-week Gaza War causing Israel much PR damage.  Causing 2,200 casualties and $5 billion in property damage hurt Israel’s global brand.

             Netanyahu often gets a bad rap by liberals n the U.S. and Israel because he refuses to negotiate with Hamas that calls for Israel’s destruction.  Voters misread Netanyhu’s motives, rooted more in Israeli national security than pandering to political forces seeking Nobel Prizes or some other motive for imposing a two-state solution.  U.S. State Department, led by 70=year-old Secretary of State John Kerry, know that 79-year-old Ramallah-based Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Mahmoud Abbas joined Hamas April 23, 2014, making it impossible for Netanyahu to resume peace talks for a two-state solution.  Herzog and Livni back a two-state solution but aren’t honest with voters that they also won’t negotiate a peace deal with Hamas, a U.S. and Egyptian-branded terror group committed to Israel’s destruction.  Herzog and Livni insist they believe in a two-state solution just not with Hamas.

             Israeli voters seem less concerned about security than they do about inflation and the cost of living.  Netanyahu focuses on national security, refusing to compromise on Israel’s basic right to defend itself against foreign and domestic enemies.  “I firmly believe that creating a Palestinian state is in [the] best interests of Israel and I will promote this concept on terms that benefit Israel and its citizens and assure their security,” said Herzog, knowing, as his running mate Tzipi, that there’s no viable peace partner to create a Palestinian state.  Creating a state with government that’s sworn to Israel’s destruction makes zero sense.  Blaming Bibi for Abbas’s decision to join Hamas in a unity government is off the wall.  Herzog and Livni have no magical peace partner to negotiate a two-state solution unless they’re willing to arm a terrorist group promising to destroy Israel.

             If Netanyahu goes down in today election, it won’t be because he spoke to a joint session of Congress or, for that matter, let relations with the White House deteriorate.  Like election cycles elsewhere, voters become jaded with incumbents, forgetting what life was life before they came to power.  With all the high-profile problems confronting Israel globally, voters have taken their eyes off the ball when it comes to national security.  Today’s wealthy discrepancy in Israel, like in the U.S., opens opportunities for liberal politicians willing to promise more than they can deliver to voters.  Voters like Herzog and Livni’s message that they plan to spread the wealth around disenfranchised groups in Israel.  Whether admitted to or not, Bibi spent far too much time in Churchillian warnings about Iran nuclear ambitions, avoiding basic economic issues confronting Israeli voters.

             Netanyahu’s problems stem from voter-fatigue more than anything he’s done or hasn’t done in office.  Like other industrialized countries, Israel has enjoyed relative prosperity since Bibi came to power for the second time March 31, 2009.  Unlike other Arab capitals, Netanyahu kept the worldwide recession from hitting Israel too strongly in the aftermath of the Great Recession in the U.S.  Even if Herzog and Livni beat Netanyahu in today’s parliamentary elections, it’s questionable whether Herzog’s Labor or Livni’s Hautnah parties can cobble together the majority of 120 votes needed to form a government. Like most voters faced with economic hardship, it’s tempting to look to the new kid on the block for something new.  Herzog and Livni may want a two-state solution but as long as the PLO embraces Hamas, it’s going to be difficult to get back to the peace table anytime soon.

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