Santorum's Wins in Deep South Go No Where

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 15, 2012
All Rights Reserved.                                         

              Pounding his chest in Mississippi and Alabama, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R- Penn) notched two more wins earning him only 32 more delegates for a grand total of 265, well below former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, whose total hit 495, still less than one-half the 1,144 needed to clinch the nomination.  “People are saying you’ve been outspent, and you know, everybody’s talking about all the math and all the things in the race is inevitable,” said Santorum, referring to certain pundits and Romney campaign officials talking like his nomination’s over.  “Well, for someone who thinks this race is inevitable, he spent a whole lot of money against me for a race that was inevitable,” said Santorum, slapping Romney for extravagant spending and lavish predictions.  Winning in the Deep South doesn’t prove a whole lot when you consider Romney scored 25 delegates or only about 5% less than Santorum.

             Based on his experience in 2008, Romney knew as a Mormon he faced a tough sell to Southern Republicans, especially evangelical Christians.  When you consider that Romney took 29% of the vote in Alabama to Santorum’s 34.5% and 32.6% to Santorum’s 34.8%, it proved not that Santorum could win the Christian South but that Romney could compete successfully.  Instead to seeing Romney’s strengths, the media focused on his failure to win Southern states, ignoring that he came within 5% of a strong evangelical candidate.  Alabama and Mississippi’s results clearly show that Romney could compete favorably in the South, essentially tying with Santorum and Gingrich.  All the talk about how Romney can’t win votes in the Deep South was disproved with Romney’s unexpected performance.  With many states awarding delegates proportionally, it’s difficult for Santorum to make up ground.

             Santorum considers his victories in Mississippi and Alabama all the more sweet because he was badly outspent by Romney, touting his “grassroots” campaign.  When you consider all the numbers, Santorum barely bested Romney in the heart of the Bible Belt, where many uneducated, God-fearing folks don’t have much patience for Mormons.  Receiving nearly 30% of the vote was a coup d’etat for Romney, not expected to do much in the Deep South.  When the GOP primaries turn to the East Coast, Upper Midwest and West Romney will start to pile up delegates.  “We will compete everywhere, we will compete everywhere,” said Santorum, urging conservatives to get behind his candidacy.  Criticizing President Barack Obama for using a teleprompter, Santorum likes to talk about his spontaneity.  When you listen to his impromptu speeches, he seems to ramble.

            Religious conservatives make up about 50% of the electorate in the Deep South, giving Santorum a big advantage over Romney.  While Santorum would like voters to believe he’s growing more popular, the truth is that evangelicals have trouble supporting a Mormon candidate.  “The time is now for conservatives to pull together.  The time is now to make sure, make sure that we have the best chance to win this election and the best chance to win this election is to nominate a conservative to  go up against Barack Obama who can take him on on every issue,” said Santorum, knowing full well that Romney polls better against the president than Santorum.  Santorum wants to tout his conservative credentials to go up against Obama but knows that conservatives don’t match up as well as moderates.   With Missouri’s 52 delegates on March 17 and Illinois’s 69 on March 20, 121 delegates are at stake.

           Santorum casts himself as a long-shot with a grassroots campaign that is somehow beginning to take hold.  In reality, he’s catering to disgruntled conservatives not happy with Romney’s past support while Massachusetts’ governor of state-sponsored health care.  Yet whether conservative or liberal, Democrat or Republican, all folks need health care.  Santorum has aligned himself with opposing national health care, banning gay marriage, challenging women’s abortion rights and all of Obama’s economic policies that have just begun to turn the nation around.  Neither Santorum nor Romney can stop bashing Obama on the economy, despite the steady rise in the stock market, unmistakable decline in unemployment and undeniable improvement in the nation’s budget deficits.  When it comes to Iraq and Afghanistan, neither Santorum nor Romney give Obama any credit for ending the wars

              All the hubbub about Santorum’s victories in Mississippi and Alabama don’t take into account the fact that he hasn’t made up much ground on Romney.  Romney’s performance in the Deep South exceeded all expectations.  When the primaries switch to the Upper Midwest, Northeast and West, Romney will pick up hundreds of more delegates needed to reach the 1,144 needed to clinch the nomination.  “Who would have thought in the age of media that we have in this country today that ordinary folks across this country can defy the odds day in and day out,” said Santorum, ignoring the fact that he was supposed to win in the Bible Belt.  When the primaries shift out of the Deep South, suddenly Santorum won’t find so much gratitude from less conservative Republicans taking more mainstream positions.  Without religious conservatives, Santorum won’t find too much success.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.       

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