by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 14, 2009
All Rights Reserved.

               Declaring Iran a nuclear and space power, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad telegraphed a loud message to U.S. President Barack Obama:  No matter what the pressure, Iran won’t give up its nuclear program.  Suspected of working on an A-bomb by the West, White House officials hoped there would be more receptivity in Tehran to negotiating an end to their nuclear enrichment program.  Several credible sources indicate Tehran is dangerously close to producing enough fissile material for its first A-bomb.   Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton hoped that Iran would be more amenable to suspending its nuclear enrichment program.  Judging by Ahmadinejad declaration, it’s more and more doubtful the Persian nation would give up any of its enrichment activities.  Faced with reelection in June, Ahmadinejad panders to Iran’s Islamic street.

            In the next few weeks, Israel will seat its new Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose two campaign promises signaled zero tolerance for Iran’s atomic weapon’s program and Gaza’s rocket attacks.  White House officials have precious little time to deal with a potential collision in the Middle East.  Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton just returned from Jerusalem and Ramallah, where she learned firsthand of Israel’s grave concerns about Iran’s nuclear program..  “Had you not been bad-tempered and blocked the way, the Iranian nation would not have been present in space, and would not have become a nuclear power,” said Ahmadinejad, sending Obama and Clinton a clear message that Iran will not retreat from its atomic work.  Since the day he assumed office Aug. 3, 2005, Ahmadinejad thumbed his nose at the West’s effort to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

            Obama talked tough during the campaign about Iran’s nuclear program.  He’s said repeatedly that the U.S. would use any and all means necessary to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.  Ahmadinejad seeks nothing short of nuclear superiority in the Middle East, watching Pakistan contain its more powerful adversary India with its nuclear arsenal.  Iran has received technical assistance on uranium enrichment from Pakistan’s renegade bomb-maker Abdul Qadeer Khan and missile technology from North Korea.  Netanyahu considers a nuclear-armed Iran an existential threat to the Jewish state.  Unless the U.S. makes an aggressive move to stop Iran soon, Netanyahu will act unilaterally, a looming prospect during a time of global economic recession.  A newly released audiotape by Osama bin Laden calls for “jihad” or holy war against Israel for its recent military campaign in Gaza.

            While Egypt feverishly attempts to contain Hamas—the duly elected government in Gaza—from causing more instability along its border, President Hosni Mubarak knows that time is running out.  He battles his own Islamic extremists, including the Muslim Brotherhood, inside Egypt and knows, after signing the first Arab peace treaty with Israel in 1978, that peace is the only way.  He also knows that radical elements favor armed conflict to achieve political aims.  Without naming names, Bin Laden blasted moderate regimes like Egypt and Jordan for “complicity” with Israel, inviting Muslims to rise up against their governments.  Calling U.N. sanctions “spiteful actions,” Ahamadinejad sounded more recalcitrant than ever about Iran’s nuclear program. He boasted about Iran’s recent launch of a research satellite and promised more in the future, requiring sophisticated missile technology.

            Ahmadinejad has successfully exploited the U.S. and U.N. effort to contain its fissile program as proof of what he calls “bullying powers” attempt to stymie Iran’s scientific progress.  His defiance, especially standing up to the U.S., wins him votes, despite his abysmal performance in managing the Persian economy.  With oil and gas prices plummeting, Iran faces economic hard times.  He blames Iran’s economic woes on U.S.-sponsored economic sanctions, leaving ordinary Iranians scrambling for jobs and even gasoline.  While Obama and Clinton seek “back channels” to begin discussions about Iran’s nuclear program, it’s highly doubtful that Iran’s Supreme Leader Al Khamenei will compromise.  He and Ahamadinejad believe the Persian nation is already an atomic power, requiring no concessions to the West.  There’s no clout left for the U.S. to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

            Iran follows Pakistan’s lead of seeking nuclear weapons to neutralize more powerful nations from exacting concessions.  While incoming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, the U.S. should strongly discourage unilateral action.  Despite all the bellicose rhetoric from Ahmadinejad, there’s no reason to assume that a nuclear-armed Iran could not be contained by conventional deterrence.  Deterrence has kept any nuclear-armed country from detonating an A-bomb since August 9, 1945, when the world witnessed the last blast at Nagasaki.  With Iran’s nuclear program well underway, it’s already too late to stop Tehran from getting its first bomb.  Unilateral military action would only destabilize the region, cause more economic upheaval at a time global recession and ultimately fail to stop Iran’s atomic program.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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