by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 13, 2006
All Rights Reserved.

eciting the same worn out talking points for three years, President George W. Bush repeated his oft-spoken refrain that the “U.S. will stand down when the Iraqis stand up.” Meanwhile, 2,309 U.S. soldiers have lost their lives, with more than 17,004 disabling injuries. With all the talk of great progress, Baghdad and surrounding areas remain the most dangerous place on the planet, with the exception of the fortified “Green Zone,” a barbed wire, concrete barricades and armed encampment protecting U.S. command-and-control, journalists and Iraq's fledgling government. Bush's new PR offensive comes on the heels of the lowest approval ratings of any American president since Lyndon B. Johnson at the height of the Vietnam War and Richard M. Nixon's Watergate fiasco. Bush says he isn't concerned about the polls but his strategic communication staff faces exhaustion.

      Bush talks about how Iraqi police, security services and military are busy ramping up to take the burden off U.S. forces. He doesn't talk about infiltration by terrorists and insurgents making it difficult, if not impossible, for U.S. troops to trust newly minted Iraqi security services. Whether Bush believes Iraq is on the verge of civil war can't detract from the security vacuum in which sophisticated Improvised Explosive Devices account for nearly 50% of all U.S. combat casualties. No matter how many billions are spent battling IEDs, a stubborn insurgency, supported by Iran and other Islamic governments, can't be arrested by current U.S. troops commitments. Even former Secretaries of State Henry A. Kissinger and Gen. Alexander Haig, speaking March 11 at the Kennedy Library in Dorchester, Mass. see an unsightly parallel with Vietnam in terms of low public support and an unyielding guerrilla war.

      Bush insists that all he needs is more time to allow the Iraqis to fend for themselves. “As more capable Iraqi police and soldiers come on line, they will assume the responsibility for more territory—with the goal of having the Iraqis control more territory for the coalition by the end of 2006,” Bush told an audience at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy at George Washington University, the same sinking argument used to justify continued U.S. involvement. Warning that there's “chaos and carnage in the days and months to come,” Bush sought to neutralize growing pessimism about his Iraq policy. Talking about more expected violence doesn't assuage growing skepticism about the president's plans for a workable democracy in Iraq. Only days before Bush's speech, his Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove insisted that Iraq mission won't end until “complete victory.”

      Bush's vision of “complete victory” involves the Iraqi military taking over for U.S. troops. Yet no one knows for sure how much of Iraq's new military and security forces are infiltrated by insurgents and foreign terrorists whose major mission involves ending U.S. occupation. Osama bin Laden's mujahedeen terrorists know how to hang in there for the long haul, like they did expelling the Soviets in Afghanistan during the early 1980s. Bin Laden and his maniacal chief lieutenant Dr. Ayman Al Zawahiri don't forget all the U.S. support during the Carter and Reagan years. Citing statistics about how many square miles Iraqi forces control doesn't tell you anything about the loyalty of the new police, military and security services. “Not all the Iraqi units performed as well as others,” lamented Bush, admitting reports about Iraq's military allowing insurgent to pass through checkpoints.

      Bush's optimistic forecast, asking the public for more time and money, doesn't match with stubborn facts on the ground that the U.S. and Iraqi military can't stop the bloody insurgency threatening to plunge Iraq into civil war. Increasing Iraqi battalions won't stop the insidious infiltration that has caused untold U.S. casualties. Iraq's current Shiite and Kurdish leaders, including Prime Minister Ibrahim Al Jaafari and president Jalal Talabani, give radical Shiite Cleric Muqtada Al Sadr the green light to arm his Al- Mahdi militia, estimated at over 10,000-members. Iraq's current leadership has strong ties to Iran's extremist regime, recently blamed by Bush for supplying explosive components for terrorists' IEDs. Buying more time for U.S. forces guarantees more deaths and injuries but doesn't assure military success. Iraq's Shiite majority has kinship and loyalty to Iran's radical mullahs.

      No matter how far Bush sinks in the polls, he can't face reality that his Iraq policy is in shambles. While hindsight is always 20/20, even diehard hawks like Henry Kissinger and Al Haig see parallels to Vietnam, where the public has no stomach for the military commitment needed to prevail. Even expected presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has backed off his calls for a dramatic increase in U.S. troops, adjusting his thinking to prevailing public opinion. It doesn't dishonor the dead or soldiers with permanent disabilities to realize that the current Iraq policy can only inflict more damage on the armed services and U.S. treasury. Instead of repeating himself, Bush should face reality and retool his thinking on Iraq. Crashing into the same wall won't magically reverse past mistakes or lead to victory. Bush needs to step outside the echo chamber and find a way out.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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