by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 10, 2005
All Rights Reserved.

etting up a rematch of their bruising fight in 2001, Los Angeles Mayor James K. Hahn and City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa came out swinging at post-primary news conferences. Villaraigosa called the election results “an indictment of the Hahn administration,” where the incumbent barely nosed out former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg by 24% to 22%. Villaraigosa decisively beat both Hahn and Hertzberg, winning 34% of the vote, four percent more than four years ago. While it's tempting to draw parallels from the last battle, where Hahn lost the primary but trounced Villaraigosa in the runoff by 7%, things appear different this time around. Last time, Hahn was a household word, the three-time city attorney and son of beloved County Supervisor James Kenneth Hahn. Villaraigosa, while well-known in Sacramento, was virtually unknown to the LA political scene.

      Hahn ran last time partly on a distinguished career in public service but mostly on his father's good name. Unlike today, four years ago Hahn had no track record, only positive expectations. Whatever he lacked in personals, he more than made up in experience. Today, Hahn runs hobbled by corruption scandals, both “pay-to-play” city contracting and excessive billing at the Fleishman-Hilliard public relations firm. Removing former LA Police Chief Bernard C. Parks was either an act of great political courage or folly. Four years ago, Hahn capitalized on his father's sterling reputation within the black community. Getting rid of Parks alienated a significant portion of the African American vote. Now Hahn finds himself scrambling for votes in South Central. Ousting Parks and hiring LA Police Chief Bill Bratton now have repercussions for Hahn's reelection.

      Over the next two months Hahn must convince the black community to come on board. But with City Councilman Parks unlikely to support Hahn, Villaraigosa stands to grab more African American votes. No longer an unknown quantity to LA voters, Villaraigosa is now a high profile member of the Los Angeles City Council, elected councilman in the 14th District. You can't underestimate Villaraigosa's added credibility from his visibility on the City Council. Unlike 2001, Villaraigosa now enjoys more support on LA's powerful Westside, the type of coalition boasted by the late Mayor Tom Bradley. Like former mayoral candidate Steve Soboroff four years ago, Hertzberg won the lion's share of West Valley voters. Back then, Soboroff leaned toward Hahn, giving him the support needed to eventually beat Villaraigosa by 7% in the June runoff. Things are different now.

      Hahn has more than potholes to fix over the next two months. He must reconcile differences with the Valley and African American community. After relentlessly attacking Hertzberg, it's unlikely that the former Speaker will endorse Hahn. Parks' campaign already signaled that, despite reservations about Villaraigosa, they believe it's time for a change. “I understand the message of yesterday's vote—that I've got to do a better job of communication with people about what we've been doing to make this a better city,” said Hahn, finding a silver lining to the election. Hahn knows that it's not a communication problem. It's a matter of finding some way of wooing back both the Valley and black voters. Defeating Valley secession and snubbing Parks, Hahn faces an uphill battle in 2005. Villaraigosa has made significant inroads with white Westside and Valley voters.

      Hahn must play dirty pool between now and the runoff to make up ground, painting Villaraigosa as dangerous for Los Angeles. It's not enough calling him a “Sacramento politician.” Unlike before, Villaraigosa now belongs to the City Council. Dredging up Villariagosa's past support for convicted crack cocaine dealer Carlos Vignali won't have the same impact as last time. With only a 48% approval rating, Hahn has a lot of catching up to do. Four year ago, Hahn's lack of charisma added to his image as a studious, hardworking bureaucrat. Today, that same blandness creates a desire for change. “The voters responded to our message. It was a message of hope,” Villaraigosa told a social studies class at North Hollywood High. This time around, Villaraigosa plans to hold Hahn's feet to the fire, highlighting scandals at City Hall—no more Mr. Nice Guy.

      Elected to the Los Angeles City Council, Villaraigosa is a different candidate than four years ago. Winning support in the predominantly white Westside and West Valley, Villaraigosa has begun to consolidate the coalition needed to become the next mayor. Most people don't underestimate Hahn as a formidable candidate. But his negatives far out weigh the positives in 2005. It's going to take a lot more than Fleishman and Hilliard to rehabilitate Hahn's image. “There's no one who holds himself to a higher standard than I do,” said Hahn, reacting to Villaraigosa's corruption charges at City Hall. Hahn finds himself caught between a rock and a hard place, defending scandals and, at the same time, trying to win back black and Westside voters. Having bludgeoned Parks and Hertzberg, Hahn can't expect their endorsements in the runoff. Bragging about filling more potholes won't get it done.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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