GOP Presidential Hopefuls Spell Civil War

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 7, 2011
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              Surfacing later than usual, the usual cast of GOP candidates hope to send President Barack Obama packing in 2012 as an over-hyped Democratic candidate, failing to deliver once soaring expectations.  Before the GOP has a prayer of unseating the incumbent, they must deal with the growing internecine warfare that could implode the Party far worse than in 2008, when the GOP took its worse beating in decades.  Midterm elections in 2010 gave the Republican Party some hope after retaking the House and narrowing the margin in the U.S. Senate.  Mainstream Republicans have difficulty reconciling the popularity of the Tea Party, led, at least in spirit, by possible GOP candidates former Alaska Gov. and Sen. John McCain’s (R-Ariz.) 2008 running mate Sara Palin and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, both looking more and more as GOP presidential candidates.

            Former President George W. Bush’s once vaunted evangelical coalition has now morphed into the Tea Party.  Thanks to his Machiavellian strategist Karl Rove, whose exploitation of Christian evangelicals helped win Bush two terms in office, religious conservatives have turned into today’s Tea Party.  Of the long potential list of 2012 GOP presidential candidates polled by Gallup, Inc. (Feb. 18-20), including former Arkansas Gov. and Fox News host Mike Huckabee (18%), former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney (16%), former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (16%), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (9%), Tex Rep .Ron Paul (5%), Minn. Rep. Michele Bachmann ((4%), former Minn. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (3%), Miss. Gov. Haley Barbour (3%), Ind. Gov. Mitch Daniels (3%) and former Penn. Gov. Rick Santorum (2%), the Tea Party folks dominate the old list of mainstream Republicans.

             Reading between Gallup’s lines, it’s more obvious that the Tea Party or evangelicals like Huckabee dominate the GOP list.  Only Romney, with his moderate voting record as Massachusetts’ governor, scores 16%, representing formerly mainstream Republicans.  Despite his strong economic credentials and name recognition, Romney’s Mormon faith puts him at odds with the Tea Party and loosely identified religious conservatives, causing him the same problem today that he had in 2008.  Whether or not he’s “paid his dues” has nothing to do with his viability today as a candidate.  Gingrich, too, shares the same problem, not in terms of religion but an every shrinking group of social conservatives.  With his track record of marital infidelity, Gingrich has a whole lot of baggage, neither acceptable to the Tea Party nor religious conservatives, spelling doom for his 2012 chances.

                  When McCain picked Palin as his running mate in 2008, it sank his campaign, despite insisting she represented the new face of the GOP.  After the drubbing in the 2008 to Obama, McCain insisted Palin helped his ticket.  Most experts believe that had he picked Romney, the election would have been a whole lot closer.  Palin’s problems stem not from associating with Tea Party but her inability to articulate the issues, leaving the public unsure about her qualifications.  Given the desire for new faces, including newly minted 38-year-old Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, the Party has leaned heavily on evangelicals now in the Tea Party.  Priebus, himself an evangelical Christian, leans toward Huckabee, Palin and Bachmann, all compatible with the Tea Party.  Tea Party-leaning voters have no interest in Romney’s moderate GOP credentials, especially on health care.

            No matter what the PR hype, there’s little interest in Gingrich, despite last week’s announcement he’s considering an exploratory committee.  Back in 2007 most GOP and Democratic candidates had already announced their intent to run for president.  This year’s delayed response reflects Obama strong poll numbers, placing his aggregate approval ratings at around 48%.  Bush ‘s ratings at the same juncture were dipping below 30%, reflecting frustration over the wars and the economy.  While Obama will surely run unopposed, there’s far greater risks to GOP candidates this time around.  Fund raising is no easy matter, especially when the odds makers favor Barack’s chances of a second term.  If Barack’s polls were tanking, there’d be a lot more GOP hopefuls throwing their hats in the ring.  Obama’s stable approval ratings spell problems for the GOP heading into 2012.

            Flush from victories in the 2010 Midterm elections, Tea Party activists, led now by Priebus at the RNC, promise to dominate the 2012 election, spelling trouble for old faces like Romney and Gingrich.  Grumbling over possible GOP candidates like real estate mogul Donald Trump or outsiders like Centcom Commander Gen. David Petraeus, mirror the reluctance of mainstream candidates to jump into the fray.  “I would definitely say it’s later in terms of an open campaign, but . . .there are lots of candidates and potential candidates, who are doing a great deal of quiet work,” said Steve Dupray, fore New Hampshire GOP Party Chairman, groping to explain the lack of declared candidates.  Given Obama’s relatively strong approval ratings, GOP candidates don’t want to go into massive debt without light at the end of the tunnel.  Today’s reluctance to jump in reflects the president’s strengths.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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