by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 6, 2000
All Rights Reserved.

alling on his sword, John McCain’s bid for the Republican nomination hit the skids in Virginia lining up the wrong enemies in the crosshairs—Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell. He forgot—for just a split second—to pick the right battle. Writing his own obituary, McCain badly overplayed his hand, milking political points from Bush’s visit to Bob Jones University. Yes, George W. Bush missed a golden opportunity to grandstand about controversial religious issues. Opting for graciousness over grandiosity, Bush bit his tongue and tried to find a silver lining to his visit. After all, his father, Gerald R. Ford, Ronald Reagan and others made the pilgrimage to Bob Jones—why shouldn’t he? In the age of sound-bites and political correctness, Bush’s visit made sensational headlines, but was nothing more than a tempest in a teapot. Desperately trying to torpedo Bush’s momentum, McCain miscalculated the fallout from his attacks on Robertson and Falwell. Comparing them to Louis Farrakhan and Al Sharpton was outrageous enough, but stating that they were "forces of evil" went over the top.

       With the election hanging in the balance on March 7th, the McCain bandwagon could hardly afford an irreversible blunder. Conservatives weren’t the only ones insulted by McCain’s insinuation that George W. Bush was "a right-wing Catholic bigot." Moderates, independents, crossovers, and, yes, even Democrats were appalled by McCain’s low-blows. Pundits warned about the downside to negative campaigning, yet few expected the race to sink to this level. Playing the Catholic-Protestant card was one thing in 1960 or even today in Northern Ireland, but it clearly boomeranged in campaign 2000. Showing his nasty side, McCain reminded voters that character and temperament still count. Blaming campaign calls and ads on renegade political operatives didn’t disown his accountability. No matter how you spin it, the candidate who oozed integrity suddenly flashed a very different side.

       Though campaign strategy’s not rocket science, hitting below the belt isn’t tolerated in most circles. There’s plenty of room for dirty tricks, but there’s limited space for petty, classless behavior. Just ask Senator Bradley, whose own campaign sank like a rock once he abandoned his high-minded image and turned negative. Accusing Gore of being a 'conservative' Bradley went over the top. Lacking plausible deniability, who’s supposed to believe that? Negative campaigning is no antidote for candidates’ passivity, or, worse yet, stifling banality. When Bradley’s campaign started taking on water, lashing out wasn’t his best strategy. Like Bradley, McCain’s finding it difficult getting the horse back in the barn. With Bush racking up more primaries, McCain became nastier, lashing out far too often for his own good. Limping into super-Tuesday, McCain’s maverick campaign may be screeching to a halt. Once the media darling, he now looks like General Custer at Little Big Horn.

       Like most prize fights, candidates don’t always look like their best every round. Close to disqualification, McCain’s next best option is returning to Capitol Hill. "I’m proud of my campaign," said an unrepentant John McCain, "I’ve had a great run and have enjoyed every minute of it." Prior to McCain’s denunciation of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell, he had undeniable momentum heading into super-Tuesday. Insurgent campaigns are great as long as the campaign focuses on the right enemies. McCain forgot briefly against whom he was running: It certainly wasn’t Pat Robertson or Jerry Falwell. Coming out of Michigan, McCain clearly held the momentum, especially among independents and crossover voters. After the low blow, McCain’s Teflon and his momentum vaporized like dry ice. With polls in California, New York and Ohio solidly behind Bush, McCain’s last sparks might fizzle in New England—the race’s last pocket of rebelliousness.

       No one ever promised George W. Bush a cake-walk. McCain’s been a formidable opponent, capable of orchestrating the media with unequaled skill. What he’s lacked in organization, he made up with personality and charisma. Few really expected the ex-POW to show such a gift for rhetoric, and, yes, campaigning. Preliminary match-ups with Al Gore, or, success with independents and crossover voters, don’t hold much weight at this stage of the game. Who’s more electable in November is anyone’s guess. More important than just personality is Bush’s well oiled campaign organization, capable of galvanizing the GOP behind his candidacy. Like most insurgent campaigns, McCain certainly couldn’t afford to alienate mainstream Republicans and expect to win in November with only 'Reagan Democrats' and independents. Who’s he kidding? Having his nose bloodied in the primaries hasn’t been a bad thing for Bush. Taking McCain’s best shots, he’s now far more prepared to go the distance with Al Gore.

       Bush’s 'compassionate conservatism' has been camouflaged in recent weeks as he proved to his party’s right wing that he’s their man. Call it pandering or whatever, it still doesn’t erase Bush’s mainstream roots whose ideological bent leans clearly toward the center. Having received his right wing’s holy water, Bush will now move quickly to capture the vast excluded middle. By mathematically dismissing McCain on March 7th, Bush positions himself well to go after moderate voters from various political persuasions. What’s lost in the smoke of today’s battles is Bush’s inclusive message, attempting to bring disparate groups into the Republican fold. Though McCain talked passionately about reforming the GOP, Bush actually has the best chance of pulling his party back into the mainstream. He did it in Texas, why not the nation?

       Wherever Bush finished at Yale, he’s finishing top-of-the-class this time around. Just as certain as his landslide on super-Tuesday, McCain won’t be offered the second slot on the ticket. Don’t look for a repeat of campaign ’80, when Reagan offered the olive branch to his once bitter rival on the campaign tail—George H.W. Bush. One thing’s for sure: McCain won’t get the same courtesy. Having burnt his bridges in Virginia, the maverick Senator from Arizona will return to the U.S. Senate having briefly mesmerized the press and the American people. When all is said and done, he’ll have a long summer trying to figure out how he got so close but no cigar.

About the Author

John M. Curtis is editor of OnlineColumnist.com and columnist for The Los Angeles Daily Journal. He’s director of a Los Angeles think tank specializing in human behavior, health care, political research and media consultation. He’s the author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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