by John M. Curtis
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Copyright March 5, 2005
All Rights Reserved.

lexing its muscles, the White House spent some of its new capital in the Middle East, telling Syria to get out of Lebanon. Since the end of Lebanon's civil war in 1990, Syria controlled Lebanon with 16,000 troops used to “stabilize” the country. With the U.S. calling the shots in Iraq and Afghanistan, the administration leaned on Damascus, following the suspicious Feb. 14 assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, billionaire businessman Rafik Hariri—a pro Lebanese nationalist, opposed to Syrian occupation. “The world is beginning to speak with one voice,” said President George W. Bush, after joining France calling for Syria's unconditional withdrawal from Lebanon. “It cannot be anything less than a comprehensive withdrawal,” said an unnamed senior French Diplomat, proving, if nothing else, that Bush's “mending-the-fences” European tour paid off.

      After years of bickering—especially over Iraq—the U.S. and France have finally found something on which to agree. At the height of the Lebanese civil war, Phalangist Christians massacred some 2-3,000 Palestinians at the Sabra-Shatila refugee camp in West-Beirut, Sept. 16-18, 1982. After the massacre, Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon ordered the occupation of West-Beirut to restore order, prompting eventual Syrian occupation. U.S forces moved in 1983 to enforce U.N. resolutions insisting on Israeli withdrawal. On Oct. 23, 1983, the U.S. marine barracks in Beirut was leveled by Hezbollah guerillas with a 12,000-pound truck bomb, killing 242 soldiers. When the U.S. pulled the plug on Beirut in 1984, U.N. peacekeepers took over with the help of Syrian forces. Internecine warfare among Christians, Sunnis, Shiites and Druze eventually led the U.N. to give up, leaving Syrians in charge.

      Not much has changed since the Syrians asserted control toward the end of Lebanon's civil war in 1990. It's easy to forget the history that left only Syrians to maintain order, in a country with a recent history of genocide. Blaming Sharon and Israel for the massacre at Sabra-Shatila ignores the intense sectarian strife that led Phalangist Christians to retaliate against Yasser Arafat and the Palestine Liberation Organization, recalling Arafat's 1976 genocide against Lebanese Catholics and Christians at Damour, a town of 25,000. There's no love lost between the Lebanese and the PLO. Only Syria had the muscle and strategic interest to stabilize Lebanon. “They simply need to realize that they don't have any support in the international system any longer to maintain their presence there,” said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, telling Syria to get out of Lebanon.

      Bending to worldwide pressure, Syrian President Bashar Assad announced that Syria would comply with the 1990 Taif accord that legitimized Syria's presence in Lebanon. and U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, calling for Syria's unconditional withdrawal. Assad signaled his intention of a phased pullout but did not say how far his troops would retreat, whether inside Lebanon or back to the Bekaa Valley. Pro-Iranian terrorist group Hezbollah wasn't happy with Syria's announcement. Since early days of the Lebanese civil war, Hezbollah has been given Syria's blessing and free rein to attack Israel. Hezbollah, with possible help from Osama bin Laden, was suspected of bombing the U.S. marine barracks in Beirut. Syria “must withdraw completely and immediately” insisted U.S. State Department spokeswoman Darla Jordan, prompting resistance to a complete withdrawal.

      Syria's ambassador to Great Britain Sami Khiyami said “the schedule [for withdrawal] is going to be decided by both presidents,” hinting Syria wouldn't be railroaded by foreign pressure. Both Assad and Lebanese President Emile Lahoud recall the anarchy that occurred after U.N. peacekeepers dished Syria the job of maintaining order in 1990. Syria welcomed the chance to seize control, inviting Hezbollah to attack Israel's northern border with impunity. Syria seeks any opportunity for revenge after Israel seized the Golan Heights in the 1967 war. Khiyami said Syria and Lebanon would reject the “Israeli agenda” of dismantling terrorist groups like Hezbollah. But with Syria out of Lebanon it would make Hezbollah's work a lot more difficult. “We mean complete withdrawal, no half-measures,” said President Bush, demanding an unconditional pullout.

      Looking for the knockout, President Bush is poised for a foreign policy victory, booting Syria out of Lebanon. Should he get his wish, he'll be faced with another stubborn power vacuum, the same type faced in Iraq and Afghanistan. Where Afghanistan went to the warlords, the jury's still out on Iraq's fate. Foreign terrorists and homegrown insurgents currently battle U.S. and newly minted Iraqi forces for control. Like Afghanistan, Iraq's new government can't control the country outside the insulated “green zone,” protected by concrete barriers and barbed wire. There's no evidence that Lebanon's warring factions have made peace. Christian Phalangists aren't ready for an Islamic state. Druze, Shiites and Sunnis also haven't resolved their differences that led to Syrian domination. Before Syria exits, the U.S. better figure out how to prevent the expected chaos.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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