by John M. Curtis
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Copyright March 3, 2002
All Rights Reserved.

eaving former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in the dust, political newcomer Bill Simon Jr. rocketed into the lead only days before California's March 5. primary. Upending conventional wisdom, Simon rose from obscurity to frontrunner, ringing a bell with Republican faithful. From the get-go, Simon stuck to his guns, energizing a GOP base unwilling to acquiesce to his party's recent reversals. But with Gov. Gray Davis dogged by the "energy crisis," Republicans smell blood in November. Attributing the turnaround to Davis' $10 million in attack ads against Riordan ignores Simon's stunning success. Davis' 1998 landslide defeat of State Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren had less to do with demographics than disenchantment with Gov. Pete Wilson. While Davis promised a fresh start—Lungren offered more of the same. More than ever, today's primary is about finding a new GOP voice. Unlike Riordan, Simon isn't bashing his party—he's speaking passionately about his convictions, not tweaking his principles to win elections.

      Riordan's gambit ran too early against Davis, not convincing loyalists to follow his lead. When the U.S. Supreme Court reversed California's open primary law, Riordan couldn't count on crossovers, independents and moderates to rescue him on primary day. This time around, conservative party loyalists are expected to show up. It's too late for the two-term big city mayor to change his stripes. Simon stayed on message, delivering not a lecture to fix a broken party but celebrating enduring values that excite conservative voters. In Simon, California Republicans find another mesmerizing force that gave Ronald Reagan two stints in Sacramento and two terms in Washington. While Simon's got a ways to go, the same kind of persuasive talk and passionate speech making is beginning to reinvigorate Republicans. It's easy to finger Davis' attack ads, but there's more to Simon's appeal. Taking a page out Reagan's playbook, "The social issues to me are not the centerpiece of my agenda," said Simon. "My ideology is of smaller government, local government, focusing on our people, individual empowerment and opportunity."

      Fixated on electability, both Davis and Riordan miscalculated Simon's crossover appeal. Since primary season began, Riordan ran against Davis and Davis against Riordan. Assuming that Simon was too conservative to get elected, both camps forget that youth, vigor, a gift for gab, and deep pockets shouldn't be underestimated. At 71, Riordan lacks Simon's fiery idealism driving him to get out the word. Pragmatists can only go so far in stirring passions. "We certainly threw a skunk into the Republican picnic, didn't we?" mused Davis' chief strategist Gary South, believing that Riordan was the man to beat. South might regret the strategy, especially if Simon's appeal broadens to disgruntled Democrats and independents. Helping Simon get across his message is former New York Mayor Rudolf W. Giuliani. Giuliani lends "celebrity" to Simon's image. Showing contagious optimism, "We've spoke to thousands of Californians, and whether those issues are the budget or education of the quality of life—our roads, our water or our power—we all know these issues can be solved," said Simon.

      Showing no signs of letting up, Simon plans to run hard all the way to next Tuesday, according to his chief strategist Sal Russo. "Dick Riordan's campaign has been predominantly against the Republican Party and 'trust me, I'll tell you what I'll do after I get elected,' and that's not a compelling message," said Russo. Both Riordan and Davis run on past experience, criticizing Simon for missing a track record. But experience can hurt candidates heading into November, especially when it's linked to California's energy woes. With the state running whopping deficits, Davis has a lot off explaining to do. Simon's private sector background could be a plus, painting himself as an effective problem solver. Experience isn't always positive when scandals and mismanagement rob the headlines. Calling Simon a "sanctimonious hypocrite," Riordan acknowledges that things aren't going as planned. "It's understandable that emotions can reach a fever pitch in the closing days of a race like this," said Simon spokesman Bob Taylor. "But while Bill's focused on issues people really care about, its seems that Dick Riordan can't handle the fact that his campaign is really unraveling."

      Getting attacked bodes well for Simon heading into Tuesday. When campaigns turn negative, it's an admission of impending defeat. Even Sec. of State Bill Jones hammered away at both Simon and Riordan. "If that's a conservative, Reagan Republican record, then that's turned upside down," said Jones, attacking Simon for supporting San Francisco mayor Democrat Willie Brown. Slamming Riordan, "It is a record of mismanagement that Gray Davis will use to destroy the Republican Party if our nominee is Dick Riordan." Calling Simon "ultra-ultra conservative," Riordan insisted that "There's no way he's going to get the women's vote," reinforcing his claim that he's the only Republican that can beat Gray Davis. Staying above the fray, Simon refused to join the food fight, keeping focused on his schedule packed with appearances around the state. Emerging from the muck, Simon looks positively gubernatorial, remains focused on his message, and keeps his eye riveted on converting voters. With each stump speech, media appearance and photo op, Simon's momentum looks unstoppable.

      "Elections are all about following your leader," said Ronald Reagan, recognizing that voters are drawn to enthusiastic candidates inspired by their own message. Riordan relied too heavily on his past success and electability in November. Jones leaned too much on party loyalty, failing mobilize much excitement. Only Simon sold his ideas with power and conviction, convincing his party that he's the one to follow. While Riordan looks tired, Simon beams infectious energy heading into Tuesday. "If Gray Davis has the experience money can't buy, and now we've had his leadership for the last four years, I think we got experience we don't want to pay for," said Simon, diputing Davis' 1998 winning slogan—"experience money can't buy." Simon proved that self-financed campaigns can get fund-raising rolling. Should Simon win the primary, he'll enjoy the full weight of the GOP money machine, no longer requiring him to reach into his own pockets. Hitting his stride, Simon now has the faithful following his lead.

About the Author

John M. Curtis is editor of OnlineColumnist.com and columnist for the Los Angeles Daily Journal. He's director of a Los Angeles think tank specializing in political consulting and strategic communication. He's author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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