Israel's Gaza Plan

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright March 2, 2009
All Rights Reserved.                    

            Poised to take over the Israeli government, newly elected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu served notice that he intends to take back Gaza.  Seized by Hamas  June 15, 2007, the weakened Palestinian Authority could do nothing while Ismail Haniyeh’s band of militants seized the Mediterranean seaside strip.  Hamas’ Syrian-based leader Kalid Mashaal has no intent of surrendering Gaza to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, considered a U.S. puppet.  Egypt, who shares a border with Gaza, has tried for months to broker unification talks between Hamas and Fatah, the old Palestinian Liberation Organization founded by the late Yasser Arafat.  After watching its leader Abdel Assiz al-Rantissi and founder and spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin assassinated by Israel in 2004, Hamas has no intention of ceding its authority to Abbas or anyone else.

            U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton arrives in Israel March 3 in what promises to be a fruitless attempt to restart peace talks.  Her predecessor Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice found out the hard way that it’s impossible to negotiate peace with half the Palestinian people.  She arrives only weeks, perhaps days, before Israel consigns its future to Netanyahu, every bit her equal and no pushover. She walks a tightrope pressuring Israel and pandering to Palestinians, while knowing that nothing can happen until Hamas loses control of Gaza.  She also knows that a strident public face to Israel won’t return Abbas to power in Gaza.  Clinton plans to attend a Gaza-rebuilding donor conference sponsored by Egypt in Sharm el Sheikh, pledging $900 million in U.S. aid.  Rebuilding Gaza can only happen after Hamas militants are rooted out of the former Egyptian territory.

            Since brokering a ceasefire Jan. 18, more than 110 rockets and mortar shells have hit Israel’s southern border.  Caretaker Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned Hamas that Israel’s next response would be severe.  Hamas’ rockets “will be answered with a painful, harsh strong and uncompromising response from the security forces,” Olmert told his Cabinet, hinting that when the reins are passed to Netanyahu all bets are off.  All public cries for restraint will be met with deaf ears when Bibi takes over.  He won’t fool around with Hamas, knowing that there can be no peace without ejecting the militant group from Gaza.  While unspoken by the U.S. and Abbas, they can’t wait until Netanyahu purges Gaza of Hamas.  Netanyahu knows he can’t complete the mission without reoccupying Gaza.  With the clock ticking before Bibi takes over, Hamas has little time left to acquiesce.

            U.N. Mideast peace envoy former British Prime Minister Tony Blair expressed reservations about a donors’ conference without a political settlement.  “This money will not have a lasting impact unless there is a political solution,” said Blair.  “It is ultimately in the politics that the solution lies,” hinting that with Netanyahu coming to power there’s more hope for the future.  Hamas has no intent of ceding power to Abbas now or in the future.  Abbas lost Gaza to a better-organized militant force.  For two years, Hamas has consolidated its power, smuggling arms from Gaza’s catacomb of elaborate tunnels.  Abbas also walks a fine line opposing Hamas and, at the same time, appearing to support U.S. and Israeli plans for a two-state solution.  Hamas still believes it can overthrow the Israeli government, something appealing to militants opposed to any peace deal with the Jewish State.  

            Netanyahu will play his cards close to the vest until sworn in as prime minister.  Before Israeli elections Feb. 10, he stated unambiguously he intended to take back Gaza from Hamas.  Gaza, which was seized by Israel in the 1967 War, was returned by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon Sept. 12, 2005.  It took a little over two years before Hamas seized the Gaza Strip from Abbas, leaving the current mess.  Abbas can’t expect more than 80 countries promising to pledge $2.8 billion, $1.9 billion from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, to begin rebuilding until he regains control of Gaza.  With Hamas firmly in charge, rebuilding now would be a complete waste.  More retaliatory strikes against Hamas rocket fire would only undermine rebuilding efforts.  For Mideast peace to have any chance of working, U.S. and Palestinian authorities know that Hamas must be evicted from Gaza

            Only weeks away from Netanyahu’s return as prime minister, the dynamics of Mideast peace will change.  Before his election, Bibi made it clear he plans to retake Gaza sometime after taking office.  His new conservative governing coalition, including the support of Russian-born ultranationalist Yisrael Beiteinu Party leader Avigdor Lieberamn, already pledges 100% support.  When Clinton arrives March 3, her public face will support Palestinian efforts at reconciliation.  Behind the scenes she’ll discuss Netanyahu’s contingency plans to take back control of Gaza.  While Clinton and Abbas publicly condemn military action, they know there’s no other path to their goal of a two-state peace plan.  As long a Hamas controls Gaza, there’s no chance of Mideast Peace.  Having pushed the situation to the brink, Hamas must reverse itself or face an ugly day of reckoning.  

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analysing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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