by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 28, 2003
All Rights Reserved.

hipping the public into a panic, the FBI drew up contingency plans to counter possible terrorist attacks should the U.S. go to war with Iraq. Three weeks ago, Atty. Gen. John Ashcroft racheted up the nationwide terror alert to "orange" based on "credible" intelligence—or so he thought. One week later, the FBI admitted its sources unraveled, embarrassing the government for not verifying its facts. Chatter at Guantanamo Bay's Camp X-Ray hardly represents good intelligence. Downgrading the terror alert of yellow, the FBI now wants to undo the panic it induced on a false alarm. While some believe it's better to be safe than sorry, the FBI must do a better job of accurately assessing threats and responsibly notifying the public. "The lowering of the threat is not a signal to government, law enforcement or citizens that the danger of a terrorist attack is passed," said Ashcroft, reminding the public to stay alert.

      Landing a big fish, U.S. authorities announced the capture by the CIA and Pakastani authorities of high-ranking Al Qaeda kingpin and reputed mastermind of Sept. 11 Khalid Shaikah Mohammed. "It's hard to overstate how significant this is," said White House press secretary Ari Fleischer, adding, "It's a wonderful blow to inflict on Al Qaeda." Khalid Shaikah is the most senior Al Qaeda member captured since the U.S. attacked the Taliban in Nov. 2001. Considered two steps from Osama bin Laden and just below Ayman al-Zawahri--the notorious Egyptian physician regarded as Bin Laden's key operational planner--getting Khalid Shaikah Mohammed is a major coup. Khalid Shaikah's arrest vindicates President Bush's promise to hunt down terrorists, despite allowing Bin Laden, Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar and a cadre Al Qaeda's elite to slip away following the bombing of Tora Bora.

      Capturing Khalid Shaikah allows U.S. authorities to breathe a little easier, knowing that it partially decapitates Al Qaeda's command and control. Khalid's arrest followed an intense manhunt in which Pakastani authorities and the CIA tracked him down, nearly nabbing him in the southwestern town of Quetta, finally getting him in Rawalpindi, with the help off an Egyptian informant arrested in Quetta. "This is a great success today, but the war on terrorism goes on tomorrow," said Jim Wilkinson, a spokesman at U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Fla, yet acknowledging, "there's still a lot of work to do." Getting closer to a war with Iraq, U.S. officials insist that terrorism threats remain high, believing hostilities could unleash deadly attacks. Since Sept. 11, no terrorism encore emerged, despite government predictions that more attacks were a virtual certainty. With Khalid Shaikah's arrest, Al Qaeda has one less fang.

      When the FBI reveals too much uncorroborated information, it creates unnecessary anxiety in a public already rattled by the prospects of war. Suggesting that Al Qaeda is engaged in "prolonged static surveillances," implying that terrorists disguise themselves as panhandlers, demonstrators, shoe-shiners, food and flower vendors, etc., raises suspicions across the board. Now the FBI fingers Iraq for possible terrorist activities, telling the public that Saddam—not Al Qaeda—might initiate his own attacks. "Our particular concern is that Saddam Hussein may supply terrorists with biological, chemical or radiological material," said FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III, mirroring White House talking points that Saddam represents a clear and present danger. Before nationwide terror alerts escalate, the FBI should carefully weight the benefits of open disclosure against the pitfalls of promoting panic.

      National security agencies—including the FBI, CIA and National Security Agency—shouldn't be used to sway public opinion toward accepting eventual war. National security agencies must avoid any conflict of interest that politics—not the treat of terrorism—injects itself into military decisions. In order for newly minted Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge to have any credibility, terror alerts must be based on hard evidence, not whether decisions influence public opinion. There's nothing wrong with developing contingency plans. But the FBI must carefully check its sources before upgrading or downgrading the current alert system. "Today's decision to lower the threat level was based on a careful review of how this specific intelligence has evolved and progressed over the past three weeks as well as counter-terrorism actions," said former Penn. Gov. Tom Ridge, advocating increased security.

      Getting intelligence from "enemy combatants" at Camp X-Ray isn't enough to warrant manipulating the nationwide terror alert system. Before sources are verified, Homeland Security should pass the information along quietly to law enforcement without unduly panicking the public. Ratcheting up terror alerts before informants fail polygraph tests causes embarrassment and damages credibility. Despite 9/11, whether radical Islam plots terrorist attacks overseas doesn't mean that "sleeper cells" are about to erupt on the home front. With or without domestic terror alerts, the White House can still make a persuasive case why the U.S. needs to conquer Iraq. Shifting excuses from nuclear bombs to violating Gulf War accords, to inadequate disarmament, to weapons of mass destruction, and now to supplying terrorist networks breeds more skepticism. Crying wolf only makes matters worse.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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