by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Feb. 24, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

ince going down to defeat in Wisconsion by a whopping 18%, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) lashed out at Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), accusing him of plagiarism, misrepresentation and crafty speechmaking, duping voters. If eleven consecutive losses didn't send a strong message, Hillary's crushing Wisconsin defeat proved that Democratic voters had found a new leader. Because the difference in delegates is still under 200, it looks like a competitive race. In reality, Democratic voters picked a new leader and will deliver to Hillary the final insult on Tuesday, March 4. Most pundits don't want to go out on a limb, fearing egg-on-the-face like in New Hampshire. But Hillary's lucky 2% victory was directly related Sen. John McCain siphoning off independent votes from Barack. With momentum going to Obama, Texas and Ohio tell a different story.

      Texas holds an open primary where independents and Republicans can vote for Democratic candidates. Barack has established a proven track record of attracting independents and crossovers, promising to add between 15%-20% to his vote totals. What looks like a “dead heat” today based on polling from Democratic voters won't tell the story when independents flock to the polls and vote for Obama. Hillary's argument that she's battle-tested and would somehow fair better against presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) defies post-election data. All data show Hillary attracting few independents or crossovers, accounting for why Barack, in otherwise close contests, winds up winning by big margins. Hillary's recent fury over Obama's direct mail advertising reveals a desperate candidate whose only chance is scoring some fluke knockout punch.

      Hillary scolded Barack for suggesting that she supported the North American Free Trade Agreement. “Shame on you,” said Hillary, accusing Obama of vicious Republican-style attack-ads, likening him to President George W. Bush's former strategist Karl Rove. Lashing out only reinforces Hillary's desperation, turning off more voters. She has one more shot in Cleveland, Ohio Feb. 26, where the two will meet for the last time. Hillary wanted more debates, accusing Barack of running scared. In reality, every time the two debate, it reinforces why Democrats prefer Barack, siphoning off more and more voters. “I'm working as hard as I can,” said Hillary at a campaign stop in Rhode Island. “I have good campaigns in Texas and Ohio, and I feel really positive about what's going to happen on March 4,” her exact message before losing big in Wisconsin.

      Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter called for Hillary to drop out and throw her support to Barack on Sun., Feb. 24. He thought it would be save face to call it quits than to continue the vitriol and get trounced on March 4. While no one has a crystal ball, you don't have to be a psychic to figure out the trend. Hillary's internal polling indicates that she's in deep trouble in Texas and Ohio but especially the Lone Star state where independents and crossovers get a chance to express their feelings about the Clintons on Election Day. Hillary wants to blame Barack's speechmaking wizardry for her apparent fall from grace. But in the end she has no one to blame but herself for appealing less to the bulk of Democratic voters. Barack used her “experience” argument to remind voters about Hillary's support for the Iraq War, NAFTA and the GOP's harsh and unpopular bankruptcy bill.

      While there's drama before March 4, a careful look current trends has Hillary's presidential bid coming to an end. She can point the finger at her consultants or unhelpful comments by her husband but the reality is that Barack's powerful message and charisma proved overwhelming. Hillary's recent desperate attacks only reinforce why a growing majority of Democratic voters have lined up behind Barack. “Shame on you,” Hillary harshly scolded Barack, for running direct mail ads that quoted her support for NAFTA. “Senator Clinton's premise in her candidacy throughout the campaign has been 35 years of experience, including eight years in the White House, right? She has essentially presented herself as co-president during the Clinton years,” said Obama, responding to Hillary's latest salvos. Hillary has one more chance in Cleveland to change voters' minds.

      Barack's goal of becoming the first African American Democratic nominee gets closer everyday before March 4. Hillary's ugly tone shows off her poor sportsmanship. She should know at this stage that going negative only backfires, driving more voters to Obama. How she ends her campaign will follow her the rest of her senate career. It's highly doubtful that Barack will pick her for a running mate, knowing how poorly she fairs with independents and crossovers. When Obama considers a running mate, it must augment any weaknesses, potentially exploited by the GOP. He must pick a good match not so much for regional appeal but rather someone with rock-sold defense and foreign policy credentials. Former presidential candidate Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) fits the bill in terms of gravitas and passion. Biden has the track record, toughness and savvy to take on the GOP.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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