Israel's Collison Course

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 23, 2009
All Rights Reserved.                    

       When Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu was selected Feb. 20 by Israeli President Shimon Peres to form the next parliament, the White House groaned, uncertain about Mideast Peace.  Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton heads to Jerusalem and Ramallah March 3 to size up realistic peace prospects.  She knows that Netanyahu, whose Likud Party received 27 seats, is less inclined than Kadima Party leader Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to go along with a U.S.-backed two-state peace plan.   While Livni’s Party won 28 votes, Peres felt Netanyahu had the best shot a cobbling together a working coalition over the next six weeks.  Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Labor Party, with whom Livi would partner, only won 13 seats, the worst showing in 20 years.  Avigdor Lieberman, ultra-conservative Yisrael Beiteinu Party leader, won 15 seats, dashing Livni’s hopes..

            Netanyahu prefers forming a coalition government with Kadima, whose policies sync with the Obama administration’s plan to negotiate a comprehensive Mideast peace.  Livni wants a power-sharing arrangement with Netanyahu in which both leaders would rotate two years as prime minister in a four-year term.  So far, Netanyahu rejects power-sharing, preferring to offer Livni another full term as foreign minister.  Labor leader Ehud Barak has already signaled he intends to go in opposition.  “The voters’ verdict has sent the Labor Party into opposition,” said Barak putting more pressure on Livni to join Netanyahu’s government.  While Livni collected one more seat than Netanyahu, she knows that he has enough seats to form a government with conservative parties.  Despite all of Netanyahu’s bravado, he’s far more accommodating than Lieberman and other religious leaders. 

            Netanyahu learned a bitter lesson about electoral politics, losing prime minister May 17, 1999 to Ehud Barak, now defense minister and Labor Party leader.  Ironically, Barak lost Likud Party leader Ariel Sharon Feb. 2000, whose conservative ways morphed into an unlikely peacemaker, resigning from Likud Nov. 21, 2005 and founding the moderate Kadima [meaning forward] Party.  Sharon came full circle from a war hawk, indicted at the Hague for the 1983 Phalangist Christian Lebanese massacre in the Palestinians refugee camps Sabra and Shatila.   Sharon, who was then defense minister under Prime Minister Menachem Begin, was unfairly blamed for Christian retaliation of PLO atrocities 20 years earlier.  Sharon learned that peacemaking involved compromise, forming the centrist Kadima Party in 2005, now headed by Livni, showing no signs of political compromise.

             Meeting with Netanyahu Feb. 20, Livni refused to join his government, unless she shares prime minister.  Though she cites irreconcilable differences, she’s willing to put ideology aside if Bibi gives her what she wants.  She’s spent the last week politicking, painting Netanyahu as a right wing fanatic.  She presented herself as the Obama administration’s only hope of getting a Mideast peace.  While it’s true she’s campaigned as peacemaker, it’s also true Bibi had to placate Lieberman and other right wing religious parties to win the election.  Attaining 27 seats was remarkable when you consider Bibi couldn’t draw crossovers from Kadima and Labor.  Livni needs to stop playing politics and work with Netanyahu to form a new government.  She’s far better off serving as foreign minister than trying to win a power-sharing arrangement that dilutes Israel’s peacemaking efforts.

            Livni may try to wait until Hillary’s visit March 3 before committing herself to either joining Netanyahu’s coalition or staying in opposition.  White House officials shouldn’t assume Livni would make a better peace partner.  Sharon fooled a lot of his critics becoming peacemaker, committing Israel to leave Gaza.  No one expected the once conservative hawk to compromise on Gaza.  It’s  beyond ironic that that decision resulted in Hamas’ 2007 takeover, leaving Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah vulnerable to a coup.  When Hillary arrives, it’s doubtful she’ll meet with Hamas in Gaza City.  She’s expected to meet with Israel’s caretaker Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Netanyahu and Livni.  She plans to visit Abbas in Ramallah to discus what can be done to bring about Palestinian unity.  Clinton knows, like her predecessor Condoleezza Rice, that she can’t negotiate peace with half the Palestinians.

            Netanyahu appears to be moving in the right direction, moderating his stands to cobble together a more centrist government.  So far, Livni has pushed Netanyahu further into the hands of Avigdor Lieberman’s Yizrael Beiteinu ultranationalist party.  Livni hopes to isolate Netanyahu and wind up the consensus pick.  “Let’s unite to secure the future for the state of Israel,” addressing Livni and Barak after given the nod to form a new government by President Shimon Peres.  “I ask to meet with you first to discuss a broad national unity government,” said Bibi, asking his opponents to bury the hatchet.   Livn still believes she can sabotage Netanyahu and end up prime minister.  Hillary’s visit promises to apply more pressure on Netanyahu by painting Livni’s as the consensus pick.  Like Sharon, Netanyahu will rise to the occasion, put ideology aside and work toward a reasonable Mideast peace.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analysing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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