by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 22, 2005
All Rights Reserved.

etting off on the wrong foot, President George W. Bush warned Russia that it must restore democratic reforms or risk ostracism by NATO and the G-8. Bush plans to meet Russian President Vladimir V. Putin in Bratislava, Slovakia, hoping to reverse Putin's anti-democratic moves. Over the last four years, Bush sat idly by while Putin dismantled Russia's fledgling free press, including NTV, the only independent television network critical of the Kremlin. Putin charged NTV's president Vladimir A. Guzinky with tax evasion, driving him into exile. Reversing free enterprise won under the Russian reformer Boris N. Yeltsin, Putin persecuted, incarcerated and seized the assets of Russia's most eligible bachelor and wealthiest man, Yukos oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Now on the eve of his summit with Putin, Bush talks tough, lecturing him about democracy.

      Seeking to mend fences with France and Germany, Bush struck a conciliatory tone, hoping old allies could pressure Putin to restore democratic reforms. But with the Iraq war still a thorny issue, Russia and Germany only pay lip service to Bush's requests. “Yet for Russia to make progress as a European nation, the Russian government must renew a commitment to democracy and the rule of law . . .” said Bush, chastising Putin for centralizing power and consolidating the Kremlin's grip on Russia. Bush walks a dangerous tightrope criticizing Putin while, simultaneously, begging for his help in the Middle East and containing a growing Iranian nuclear threat. Bush knows that Putin is heavily invested in Iran's uranium enrichment program, including building its heavy water nuclear reactor at Arak. With its Caspian oil fields fizzling, Putin plans to expand his plutonium business.

      Iran already signaled that it has no intention of giving up its uranium enrichment program, no matter how much prodding from the U.S. or Europe. Threatening Putin only stiffens his resolve to supply Iran with the technology needed to develop the next Islamic bomb. Bush called invading Iran “ridiculous,” something the mullahs dismissed in light of the heavy U.S. military commitment in Iraq. Publicly flogging Putin before his summit escalates tensions already responsible for today's contentious atmosphere with Moscow. Like other despots watching the disintegration of power, Putin was dealt yet another blow, watching his puppet in the Ukraine ousted by pro-western reformer and newly elected president Viktor Yuschenko. Losing his grip on former Soviet satellites and inside Russia, Putin has moved against democracy, returning power back to the Kremlin.

      Bush needs Putin's cooperation to halt Iran's feverish path toward atomic bombs. Getting German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to condemn Tehran's nuclear ambitions won't s stop Putin from profiteering. With Russia's camouflaged support, Iran has managed to fuel the bloody insurgency that threatens Iraq's fledgling democracy. Growing concerns about Iraq's new Prime Minister Shiite Dawa Party leader Ibrahim Jafari's ties to Iran, complicate Bush's Russian diplomacy. Antagonizing Putin only aids Iran by further cementing an already strategic alliance with Russia. “Bush has to chastise Putin for backsliding on democracy, and I see this as putting down his first marker that what's gone on will no go unnoticed,” said Charles A. Kupchan, director of European studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, showing little common sense and losing sight of the big picture.

      Boxing Putin into a corner can only result in retaliation. Instead of lecturing the Russian president, Bush should invite his cooperation in what promises to be the most risky challenge of his next term: Confronting an imminent Iranian nuclear threat. Bush knew full-well what Putin did over the last four years, choosing, because of Sept. 11 and Iraq, to ignore it. On the eve of the summit, Bush needs all the diplomacy he can get to enlist Putin's support in containing the Ayatollah's nuclear ambitions. In a speech in Brussels, Bush told Putin he “must renew a commitment to democracy and the rule of law,” referring, of course, to Putin's attack on Russia's free press and unlawful persecution of businessmen that don't agree with the Kremlin. Whether Bush likes Putin's politics or not, he must still leverage the Russians to help advance long-range goals in the Middle East.

      Bush's fence-mending tour to Europe created mixed results, with most Europeans puzzled by what's seen as a unilateralist foreign policy. Before expecting Europe to pressure Putin or oppose Iran's nuclear agenda, the White House needs to give Europeans a reason for joining the program. French President Jacques Chirac still fumes over losing his sweetheart oil deals with Saddam Hussein. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder also lost his bargain oil deals since the U.S. invasion. Bashing Russia only stiffens Putin's resolve to oppose U.S. foreign policy, including secretly supplying arms to Iranian and Syrian gun-runners. Putin still remembers the old days in Afghanistan in the early ‘80s when the U.S. armed Osama bin Laden to fight Soviet occupation. When Bush meets Putin in Bratislava, he's got to quit lecturing, find common ground and discover better ways to get along.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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