by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 21, 2000
All Rights Reserved.

icking himself off the mat from New Hampshire, George W. Bush answered the bell with a 53% to 42% knockout over John McCain in South Carolina. Gone was the frown and uptightness, flashing a beaming smile with renewed energy and enthusiasm. Finding his charisma, "Tonight we come roaring out of South Carolina with new energy in this campaign," exclaimed Bush to a euphoric crowd at his headquarters in Columbia, S.C. Juxtaposed against the thrill of victory, was the agony of McCain’s defeat. Taking it on the chin, McCain tried to find a silver lining, "My friends, you don’t have to win every skirmish to win a war or crusade, and although we fell a little short tonight our crusade goes stronger." "We are going to win," said McCain sounding a hostile tone. "I will not take the low road to the highest office in the land. I want the presidency in the best way, not the worst way," noted McCain, showing some sour grapes and touch of anger.

       No one likes losing, but wearing emotions on his sleeve, McCain showed some unsportsman-like conduct. It’s always better to congratulate your opponents even after taking a good drubbing. Nothing softens the blows of defeat more than praising the competition. No matter how 'life-or-death' situations seems, candidates usually live to see another day. Reacting too negatively carries lasting repercussions, sometimes hurting candidate’s chances the next time around. South Carolina’s already old news as the candidates stump for votes in the all important bellwether state of Michigan. Unlike South Carolina, Michigan’s Republicans aren’t dominated by the religious right and are more amenable to McCain’s nonconformist stands. Having said this, McCain still can’t offend rank-and-file Republicans by insisting that he’s out to radically remake the party.

       Going after disenfranchised Republicans, independents, and so-called Reagan Democrats boomeranged for McCain in South Carolina. Why, after all, would Reagan Democrats be attracted to McCain’s insurgent campaign? Reagan Democrats were drawn to Ronald Reagan, whose message dramatically differs from McCain’s. In case anyone forgot, the centerpiece of Reagan’s campaign was a real, 30% across-the-board tax cut. Sound familiar? Yes, that sounds much more parallel with the plan of George W. Bush. Guess what? Bush galvanized his base and pulled those Reagan Democrats and independents into his camp. Rather than railing against the party establishment, McCain would fair a lot better by out-flanking Bush, warmly inviting party insiders to adopt his way of thinking. Pleading for independents and Reagan Democrats is barking up the wrong tree.

       Fighting for every vote and shaking every hand, Bush proved to the South Carolinians that he wasn’t taking anything for granted. Gone was the anointed air of inevitability, replaced now with a driven candidate earning newfound respect. Nothing turns off the electorate more than perceptions of smug indifference or expectations of entitlement. Voters want candidates to earn their votes by reaching out, wooing and making a persuasive pitch. That’s what Bush failed to do in New Hampshire and what McCain did so brilliantly. Without gloating in victory, Bush enjoined his troops to get back to work. Together with the win, Bush found his smile and reclaimed his front-runner status. While it’s not over yet, carrying his gains into Michigan is based not on momentum but shaking more hands, delivering more spirited stump speeches and fighting for every vote. Crossing state lines carries very little momentum.

       Finding Michigan polls locked in a virtual dead heat, Bush needs to reiterate his message and remind voters that 'compassionate conservatism' is no empty promise. He needs to passionately sell his ideas to skeptical independents and Democrats, whose frustrations with their own leadership leaves them hungry for change. Beyond party politics, broadening Bush’s platform to include an appealing national agenda is the best formula for winning crossover voters. When McCain compared Bush’s lack of integrity to Clinton’s, some Republicans were offended and thought McCain had crossed the line. McCain can’t win his party’s nomination without soliciting their support. He can’t afford to keep alienating conservative voters within his own party. Like Bradley’s identity crisis, McCain must distinguish himself as a viable alternative to George W. Bush. So far his insurgent campaign hasn’t turned on substantive issues, but largely contrasted personality styles. McCain scored big points by emulating Ronald Reagan and talking the plain man’s language.

       When Bush got out of the saddle, he began relating to constituencies on their own terms. Suddenly he was connecting with the electorate and creating a down-to-earth impression. McCain’s negative message backfired when voters experienced a different George W. Bush: A candidate far more communicative, approachable and appealing. Suggesting that Bush pandered to the religious right in South Carolina ignores the reality that he appealed to moderate Republicans, independents and crossover Democrats. Voters liked what they saw and rewarded him with their votes. McCain’s blatant attempts to solicit Reagan Democrats and independents boomeranged because self-serving appeals usually fall of deaf ears. Complaining about negative campaigning and closed precincts also backfired, creating the impression that McCain was whining too much.

       While the polls show Bush and McCain running neck-and-neck, Bush holds a decisive edge riding a friendly wave of positive energy. McCain needs to extricate himself from his potentially lethal surge of negativity. He needs to get off the defensive and state his vision with enthusiasm and positive energy. By changing his negative focus, McCain can once again regain some magical energy lost since New Hampshire. With McCain now under the gun, he must continue distinguishing himself from Gov. Bush. Ranting and raving about the 'party establishment' or making accusations about negative campaigning draw little sympathy from voters. Coasting into Michigan charged with positive energy Bush is definitely back on track.

About the Author

John M. Curtis is editor of OnlineColumnist.com and columnist for The Los Angeles Daily Journal. He’s director of a Los Angeles think tank specializing in human behavior, health care, political research and media consultation. He’s the author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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