by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Feb. 16, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

ith the clock ticking on her campaign, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) lashed out at her rival Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), hoping to stem what looks like unstoppable momentum after winning eight consecutive primaries. Obama surged past Clinton in the delegate-count 1,280 to 1,218, after last week's wins in Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington State and Maine. Barack's likely to pick up Wisconsin and Hawaii Feb. 19, adding to his delegate-count before Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island vote on March 4. Hillary hopes to keep Ohio and Texas and make it to April 22 when Pennsylvania goes to the polls. Running from behind and trying to close the gap, Hillary has turned negative, painting Barack as a big talker. “I'm in the solutions business, my opponent is in the promises business,” said Hillary to supporters in Texas near the Mexican border.

      Attacking Obama's rhetorical sills, Hillary hopes to instill doubt in voters' minds about her opponent's fitness for president. She often questions whether he's ready to lead from day-one, attesting to her proven track record of experience. Her message hasn't sunk-in as most exit polls and post-election analysis indicates that voters seek change, not experience. “He offers more questions, I offer answers. We need real results, not more rhetoric,” said Hillary, hoping to slow Barack's momentum. Hillary's criticism is reminiscent of former President Jimmy Carter when he attacked the late President Ronald Reagan in 1980. Carter couldn't fathom the charisma-gap, cautioning voters not to take Reagan seriously. He couldn't accept that Reagan's oratory and rhetoric far eclipsed his own, mesmerizing voters in what turned into a landslide by the general election.

      Hillary faces an insurmountable charisma-gap with Barack, whose crowds keep getting bigger and more enthusiastic. Since Hillary's husband, the former president, dealt from the bottom of the deck, injecting race before South Carolina Jan. 26, her campaign has been in a freefall, uncertain how to correct the nosedive. When Hillary lent her campaign $5 million Feb. 6 and changed her campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle Feb. 10, it reinforced the public's view that her campaign was in chaos. Since then, Hillary's campaign turned negative, attacking Obama at every turn. When the CNN debates resume Feb. 21 in Austin, Texas, Hillary will sing a different tune than when she last met in Hollywood Jan. 31 at a love-fest in the Kodak Theater. This time around, both candidates will have to take off the gloves or suffer the consequences, especially Hillary who can't afford another mistake.

      Political strategists concur that Hillary's only chance of making up lost ground is going negative. “I would put up a ‘Daisy' ad, with a threat like a nuclear device planted in Manhattan that asks, ‘Is he prepared to be commander-in-chief?' And says, ‘He's not Ready,'” said former John Edwards strategist Joe Trippi, underscoring, if nothing else, the desperation faced by the Clinton camp. Hillary's charisma-gap accounts for her poor fund-raising and eight consecutive losses. As voters get more familiar with Barack, his popularity soars, clearly seeking an alternative to business-as-usual. After seven years of Bush, and for much of the Clinton years, the country faced paralyzing partisanship, creating Washington's virtual gridlock. Now that the country faces economic upheaval and a big decision about Iraq, voters want major change, not just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

      Going negative has its limitations, often appearing as a last-ditch attempt to salvage a failing campaign. All successful campaigns create a kind of positive crusade attracting loyal followers seeking better days. “Maybe he'd prefer to give speeches than have to answer questions,” said Hillary, hoping to get voters to turn away from Barack. While she'd like to make up ground, she's dangerously close to the “boomerang effect,” where negative words come back to bite her. “She needs to talk about a new direction and how a woman would bring change to leadership,” said Trippi, grasping at straws to figure out how Hillary can get back on track. With Barack attracting more crowds and media attention, it's getting harder for Hillary to generate interest in her campaign. It's hasn't helped that GOP presumptive nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) addresses Obama as his rival.

      Likeability and popularity are the fuel that drive successful presidential campaigns. Turning negative doesn't improve Hillary's appeal, addressing her dilemma before the Texas and Ohio primaries: She's turning off voters and not attracting new interest in her campaign. Telling voters not to listen to speeches runs counter presidential politics where candidates make or break campaigns based on speechmaking. Going negative detracts from Hillary's charisma, making Barack look much more appealing. Voters are starting to believe that, despite Hillary's great ideas from health care to global warming, she can't achieve the kind of bipartisan consensus needed to advance real change. Barack's growing appeal comes from disheartened Republicans, Democrats and independents, searching for a way out of today's bitter partisanship currently paralyzing Washington.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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