by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 15, 2015
All Rights Reserved.

                Pushing German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Ukranian President Petro Poroshenko into a phony ceasefire, Russian President Vladimir Putin got what he wanted:  Southeastern Ukraine under the Kremlin’s orbit.  After seizing the strategic Crimean Peninsula March 1, 2014, Putin managed to split Ukraine in two, leaving Kiev broke with the Agrarian north.  Putin views Poroshenko as a U.S. pawn and the Kiev government as a product of a CIA-backed Feb. 22 coup.  Putin’s formula for peace was simple:  Cede the Southeastern Donbass region to Kremlin-approved rebel leader Alexandr Zakharchenko.  When Merkel and Hollande met for six hour with Putin in Moscow Feb. 6, the agreed to toss Poroshenko under the buss, giving away Ukraine’s industrial region to Moscow-controlled separatists.  Poroshenko realized the deck was stacked against him.

             Agreeing to a ceasefire 2400 GMT Feb. 15, Zakharchenko gave nothing and got everything he and the Kremlin wanted:  Putin’s land bridge from Russian to Crimea, cementing for posterity the Kremlin’s takeover of Ukraine.  Putin sees Kiev as a CIA-controlled U.S.-client state, no longer with the legitimacy under Russian-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.  Russia’s Kremlin-controlled media has sold the Russian people on the U.S. takeover of Kiev, giving Putin the green light to seize any territory needed to secure Russian interests.  Even before the expected implementation of the Feb. 15 ceasefire, Russian officials blasted Ukraine for twisting the nature of the peace agreement.  Russian officials want no objections for Kiev or any Western country about the outrageous Minsk agreement that essentially splits Ukraine in two and give control to the Kremlin.

                  Petrochenko hasn’t recovered from his head spinning over coercion used by Merkel and Hollande to sign the one-sided deal, selling Ukraine down the river. “Ukraine’s official representatives . . . as well as those of several Western countries, the United States in particular, have essentially expressed solidarity with the opinion of radical nationalists in the Verkhova Rade [parliament] and have begun to distort the contents of the Minsk agreements,” showing how Kremlin officials don’t want Poroshenko complaining that he gave away the store.  When the Kremlin refers to “radical nationalists,” they’re referring to Poroshenko and his Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, resisting the idea to splitting Ukraine in two.  Moscow wants Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Southeastern Ukraine “autonomous,” a euphemism for seizing another half of Ukrainian territory.

             U.S. and EU officials have too much fish to fry to worry about preventing Putin from tearing Ukraine into peace.  Putin feels entitled to Ukrainian territory precisely because it had no identity before its independence from the defunct Soviet Union Aug. 24, 1991.  Watching Ukraine deteriorate into civil war, Merkel and Hollande feared a wider war engulfing Europe, something akin to what happened June 28, 1914 when Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo starting WWII.  Worried about the growing recession in Europe, Merkel and Hollande made a Faustian bargain, selling out Poroshenko for temporary peace.  Putin expects immediate changes to Ukraine’s constitution granting autonomy to the Southeaster Donbass region.  Poroshenko essentially singed over 50% of Ukraine’s real estate, after watching Moscow take back Crime March 1.

             Putin rips Ukrainian “nationalists” suggesting that anyone opposed to handing 50% of Ukraine to the Kremlin wants to sabotage the Minsk ceasefire agreement.  Touting Zakharchenko as “showing their responsible attitude toward their commitments, the statements made by Ukrainian politicians in Kiev raise doubts,” insists the Kremlin.  Anyone daring to suggest Ukraine has a right to its sovereign territory has to be sabotaging the Minsk protocol that hands half of Ukraine to Moscow.  Signing onto the Minsk agreement guarantees that there’s no end to Ukraine’s civil war.  Putin, Merkel and Hollande can’t possibly think that ceding Southeastern Ukraine to Zakharchenko ends the Ukrainian civil war.  Poroshenko hasn’t yet woken up to what he’s done to his beloved Ukraine.  Letting the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe supervise the ceasefire won’t matter.

             Whether or not the ceasefire goes into effect 2400 GMT Feb. 15, Kiev can’t be happy giving up Ukraine’s industrialized Southeast to Moscow.  “We reaffirm that the principal message of the Minsk accords is that it is necessary to end the fighting, to withdraw heavy weapons and to start a real constitutional reform in Ukraine,” said Moscow, admitting that the whole deal favors the Kremlin.  As long as Poroshenko relinquishes Southeastern Ukraine, Moscow promises to call back Zakharchenko’s dogs and pull back Moscow’s heavy weapons.  Appeasing Putin sets a dangerous precedent for the European Union, selling out a sovereign state to stop what looks like an unending civil war.  Giving Donbass to Putin and Zakharchenko guarantees that the temporary ceasefire won’t last.  Putin agreed to a phony ceasefire as long as he got another big chunk of Ukraine.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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