by John M. Curtis
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Copyright February 13, 2015
All Rights Reserved.

                Throwing 49-year-old Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko under the bus, Russian President Vladimir Putin imposed his will on German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande.  Following up on his meeting in Moscow Feb. 6 with Merkel and Hollande, Putin gave the only formula for ending the Ukraine crisis:  Cede the Donbass region of Southeastern Ukraine to Moscow.  Merkel and Hollande came away with the same recipe they took to Minsk, Belarus, essentially giving Putin—and pro-Russian separatists led by rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko—everything he wanated to call back the dogs in rebel held territory.  Agreeing to a ceasefire Sunday, Feb. 15, Putin showed just how he controls pro-Russian separatists busy redrawing Ukraine’s map into Northern and Southern regions.  Putin still denies Russia’s military involvement in Southeastern Ukraine.

             Putin’s Feb. 11 marathon negotiating meeting a Minsk with Merkel and Hollande, pressured Poroshenko into dividing Ukriane into separate Northern and Southern regions, leaving Kiev a poor agrarian state.  Putin gets his corridor through the port city of Mariupol from Crimea to Russia, essentially breaking Ukraine into two distinct parts, with the industrialized South staying in the Kremlin’s orbit.  Preying on Merkel and Hollande’s fears of the Ukriane civil war spreading to Europe and damaging the already battered European economy, Germany and France acquiesced to Putin’s demands.  Whether appeasing Putin turns into something akin to what happened with Adolf Hitler in the 1930s is anyone’s guess.  Calling the new Minsk plan a “glimmer of hope,” Merkel referred only to avoiding more conflict that affects the Eurozone, not whether or not Putin bullied his way to controlling more of Ukraine.

             Poroshenko’s dream of a unified Ukraine with ties to the EU and NATO has altogether vanished.  Without marching in the Russian army, Putin accomplished far more in Ukraine than he did in 2008 when he grabbed Russian enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia.  Far more strategic for the Kremlin’s influence in the Black Sea region, seizing at least half of Ukraine sends chills through other former Soviet satellites, especially the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all realizing that NATO can do little to stop Putin.  German’s Feb. 6-9 security conference in Munich bore eerie similarities to the Sept. 30, 1938 Munich conference where allied powers ceded Sudetenland or Czechoslovakia to Hitler.  Heading into Minsk, Merkel and Hollande capitulated to Putin, prompting Merkel to publicly admit that no weapons were any match to Putin’s land army.

             Officials at the White House and lawmakers on Capitol Hill recall well the events that dragged the U.S. into WWII   Caving into Putin redraws the European map, splitting the Ukraine into an industrialized South and agricultural North.  Poroshenko has to be fit-to-be-tied how his so-called European friends sold Ukraine down the river to protect the Eurozone’s economic interests.  Putin got everything he wanted.  More Ukrainian territory and a commitment by the EU to end sanctions that have harmed Russia’s economy.  “I have no illusions, we have no illusions,” said Merkel, admitting that “much work” remained to avoid a repetition of the Sept. 5, 2014 Minsk protocol calling for a ceasefire last year.  Today’s deal in Minsk assumes that Poroshenko really agrees to cede Ukraine’s industrialized South to Donbass leader Alexander Zarkharchenko, settling for nothing short of autonomy.

                 Merkel and Hollande completed the same mission as Neville Chamberlain in Munich Sept. 30, 1938 when he touted “peace in our time,” signing the Munich Agreement.  Putin has more excuses than a recovering alcoholic for why he wants Ukaine to remain in the Russian orbit. Despite the Feb. 22, 2014 pro-Western revolution that toppled Russian backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, Putin insists that the CIA sponsored the revolt.  He sees anything pro-Western as proof of CIA encroachment in Russia’s backyard.  Imposing his will on Minsk, Putin managed to intimidate Merkel and Hollande into handing Donbass over to pro-Russian separatists.  Anyway you cut it, Merkel and Hollande pressured Poroshenko into giving Putin at least 50% of Ukraine’s territory and 90% of its industrial base.  When Merkel talks of a “glimmer of hope,” she’s certainly not referring to Ukraine’s future.

             U.S. lawmakers will no doubt take a jaundiced eye to the new Minsk agreement that cedes Southeastern Ukraine to Moscow.  However you slice it, giving Zakharchenko’s Donbass region “autonomy” accomplishes Putin’s objective of controlling Southeastern Ukraine.  “Towards the end, President Putin put pressure on the separatists so that they agreed to a ceasefire from Saturday at a 2400 hours, or Sunday zero hours,” said Merkel from her office in Berlin.  Putin didn’t pressure separatists, he used them to pressure the German chancellor and French president to twist Poroshenko’s arm into accepting the ceasefire.  Poroshenko knows that the new Minsk agreement hands Putin Southeastern Ukraine.  Worried about a growing recession the Europe, Merkel and Hollande gave Putin everything he wanted to split Ukraine in two.  Poroshenko’s head is no doubt still spinning.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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