by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 11, 2004
All Rights Reserved.

olling up 12 victories in 14 contests, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry racked up two more in the South, winning Virginia and Tennessee by impressive margins. Beating Southerners former NATO Supreme Commander four-star Gen. Wesley Clark and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Kerry looks inevitable, with the former front-runner Vermont Gov. Howard Dean continuing his slide—barring an unforeseen mishap. While Clark threw in the towel, Dean promised to hang around till at least March 17, the date of the Wisconsin primary. Like the guillotine, Dean hasn't yet accepted that heads have already rolled in the Democratic primaries, capping an amazing freefall leaving him near the bottom with Bronx's Rev. Al Sharpton and Ohio's Rep. Dennis Kucinich. Despite Kerry's momentum, neither Dean nor Edwards have given up, praying, if nothing else, for something unexpected.

      Kerry's meteoric rise parallels Dean's self-inflicted downfall, with Democratic voters rushing to a viable option. Now rolling up his sleeves, Kerry learned much from Dean, especially how to wear his emotions on his sleeves and aggressively go after President Bush. Transitioning from consummate Washington insider to bold presidential candidate hasn't been easy for the genteel New Englander, a four-term junior senator from Massachusetts. As the primaries wear on, voters grow impatient wanting an electable nominee. “Winning two Southern states against two native sons bolsters his case that he's a candidate who can run a nationwide campaign,” said Mark Rozell, a professor of political science at Catholic University in Washington, D.C., suggesting that Kerry doesn't need a Southerner to win in November. Rozell forgets that successful campaigns show balance in geography, personality and luck.

      Kerry's strength stems only partly from his impressive military credentials. As a decorated Vietnam vet, he brings honor to the uniform, though understands the sacrifices currently asked of G.I.s serving as sitting ducks in Iraq's bomb-infested war zone. Recent attempts to impugn Bush's service in the Texas National Guard might boomerang, diverting attention away from Kerry's agenda. Shifting gears, Kerry directed the debate to domestic concerns, where unemployed voters are fed up with empty promises about more jobs and economic bromides. “From Missouri to Wisconsin to Ohio, from the heartland to both coasts, the wreckage of the Bush economy can be seen all around us,” said Kerry, appealing to displaced workers in the South, not benefiting from the latest economic good news. Kerry figured out that voters have more on their minds than only Iraq.

      Following Dean's lead, Kerry sharpened his attacks against President Bush, criticizing his domestic and foreign policy agendas. Before Dean's collapse, Kerry polled poorly in the South and elsewhere. But since winning Iowa and New Hampshire, he showed freight train-like momentum, as Democratic voters consolidated around the most “electable” candidate. While Edwards and Dean still lurk in the background, it's Kerry's race to lose, should the unexpected occur. “Right now it doesn't seem so much a contest about who becomes the alternative [to Kerry] as whether the Democratic electorate sees a need for an alternative,” said Democratic strategist Anita Dunn, wisely hedging bets before Kerry is fully vetted. Speculation about Kerry's possible infidelity reported Feb. 12 in The DrudgeReport.com point toward disastrous public relations problems.

      When Jennifer Flowers rocked Clinton's run for the White House in 1992, it took some pretty fancy footwork to stay on his feet. So far, Kerry hasn't shown Clinton's prodigious Teflon skills, prompting Edwards and Dean to sit tight and wait for the fallout. “Kerry will implode over an intern issue,” said Gen. Wesley K. Clark, telling a group of 12 journalists off-the-record before he withdrew from the presidential sweepstakes following losses in Virginia and Tennessee. Sources close to the unfolding story indicate that several mainstream media outlets, including ABC News, CBS, Time and AP, are investigating. According to Drudge, Kerry's mistress fled the country under duress to avoid sabotaging Kerry's presidential bid. Back in 1984, rumors—and indeed lurid photos—of an alleged affair with Donna Rice ended Colorado's Sen. Gary Hart's White House plans.

      Like most boxing matches, you never know who's going to hit the mat. Kerry is currently way ahead on points—with 516 delegates—but notoriety hasn't yet hit like a bolt of lightening. Runaway freight trains have powerful momentum but could easily turn into disastrous wrecks. “Obviously, Kerry has a lot of momentum,” said Kick Baldick, Edward's campaign manager, not willing to concede the race before Wisconsin's Feb. 17 primary. Before Edwards and Dean fold their tents they should wait until the rumor mills stop churning about Kerry. If Clark's prediction comes true, it's difficult to figure out why he chose to bail and threw his support to Kerry. Since Clinton messed up in the Oval Office, few Americans are willing to gamble with candidates predisposed toward hanky-panky. Whatever Bush's problems, no one has the stomach for any more disgrace.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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