by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 8, 2015
All Rights Reserved.

                  Groping to find a solution to the Ukraine crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande spent six hours Feb. 6 at the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Hoping to stop the escalating war in Ukraine, Merkel and Hollande brought an olive branch to Putin, encouraging him to support a new ceasefire.  With rumblings in Washington about considering arming Ukrainian President Petro Porolshenko with more sophisticated weapons, the European Union sees nothing but more violence, anarchy but, more importantly, damage to the EU economy.  Merkel admitted openly that even with more sophisticated weapons, Ukraine is no match for Putin’s dominant Russian army.  Poroshenko’s getting that sinking feeling that his EU friends have sold him down the river.  No one in the EU or NATO wants the Ukraine crisis to spread to Europe.

             Poroshenko doesn’t like the Sept. 5, 2014 Minsk protocol that outlines the terms of a lasting ceasefire, including greater autonomy, a euphemism for independence, for Southeastern Ukraine AKA Donbass region.  “The Minsk Protocol is not a buffet in the Bayerischer Hof hotel,” said Poroshenko,  referring to the location of the Munich Security Conference.  After Putin annexed Crimea March 1, Poroshenko hoped he would not only get Crimea back but get the thousands of Russian troops out of Southeastern Ukraine to reestablish Ukraine’s territorial integrity.  Since the Feb. 22, 2014 a pro-Western coup that toppled the duly elected Russian-backed government of Viktor Yanukovich, Moscow no longer recognizes Ukraine’s past borders.  Poroshenko hoped to get backing from the U.S. and EU to have Ukraine’s borders reinstated.  As Ukraine lost more territory in the Donbass region, it’s more difficult to get it back.

             Meeting in Muich, Poroshenko hoped that Merkel and Hollande would have better news about an impending Moscow withdrawal from Donbass, restoring Ukraine’s past borders.  “If you take just line, ceasefire and nothing more it would be simply no peace,” said Poroshenko not ready to admit he’s lost Crimea and Southeastern Ukraine.  No one in the EU or NATO is willing to confront Russia, or, for that matter, Alexander Zakhrarchenko to reestablish Ukraine’s sovereignty.  When former Ukrainian heavyweight boxer Vitali Klitschko led a pro-Western coup Feb. 22, 2014, he didn’t calculate the consequences to Ukraine’s sovereignty of booting out Kiev’s elected leader Viktor Yanukovich.  When the dust settled, Klitschkho, now the mayor of Kiev, finds himself losing more territory.  Returning to the old borders would not be possible unless Yanukoich returns to Kiev.

                 When Poroshenko took office June 7, 2014, he didn’t know how Ukraine’s borders would change after the Feb. 22, 2014 coup.  Putin blames the CIA for the coup that tossed out Yanukovich and tried to install a pro-NATO government.  Putin’s adamantly opposed to NATO gaining a bigger foothold in Russia’s backyard, especially in Ukraine.  Poroshenko’s last-ditch hope for confronting Moscow is conservative backing in the U.S. Congress.  President Barack Obama’s foreign policy signature has been to reduce the U.S. footprint in foreign affairs.  Under his watch, Obama won’t use the U.S. military to solve territorial disputes around the globe.  While it’s true that Ukraine wants closer ties to the West, it’s also true that the White House won’t go to war against Moscow to fight Ukraine’s battles.  Hinting at supplying arms to Kiev prompted Merkel and Hollande to intervene.

             Expected to confer by phone Feb. 8, Merkel, Hollande, Petroshenko and Putin hope to reinstate an acceptable version of the Minsk Protocol.  What’s different now is that Poroshenko has less leverage to argue about reinstating Ukraine’s past borders.  Whether admitted to or not, Merkel and Hollande want peace at the expense of more Ukrainian territory.  “There is no temporary solution—this conflict must be resolved, no frozen,” said Poroshenko, referring to breakaway republics of Georgia’s South Ossetia and Abkhazia and Moldova’s Transnistria.  Poroshenko finds himself watching as Ukraine’s map changes, losing Crimea March 1 and now Donbass, if he wishes a lasting peace.  Whatever Ukraine’s new borders, Merkel and Hollande don’t want to join Poroshenko’s losing proposition of continuing to battle Moscow to reinstate Ukraine’s pre-revolutionary borders.

             Porsoshenko’s currently paying a heavy price for the Feb. 22, 2014 revolution that evicted duly elected Russian-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.  No one in Kiev, certainly not Klitschko, understood the change in Ukraine’s borders at the time.  “This conflict cannot be resolved by military means,” said Merkel, putting Poroshenko on notice that he had to settle the conflict diplomatically.  After 5,300 killed since April, the pressure’s on for Poroshenko to accept reality.  No one in the U.S., EU or NATO is willing to battle Russia to save one inch of Ukrainians territory.  Poroshenko faces undeniable consequences to Ukraine’s pro-Western coup.  Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov urged the U.S. to refrain from supplying Ukraine weapons, defensive or otherwise.  It’s now up to the U.S. and EU to convince Poroshenko that he must accept Ukraine’s new map.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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