Iran Ups the Ante

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Feb. 8, 2010
All Rights Reserved.                    

              Defying calls for Iran to stop enriching uranium, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ordered Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, to increase to 20% enriched uranium.  Iran faces tough new sanctions in the U.N. Security Council for thumbing its nose at a proposal to allow third parties, notably Russia and France, to enrich Iran’s uranium out of the country.  “We will hand over an official letter to the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] tomorrow, informing the agency that we will start making 20 percent enriched fuel from Tuesday,” Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran's nuclear chief, told Iran’s Arabic-language state television, al Alam.  President Barack Obama gave Tehran until the end of 2009 to follow IAEA and U.N. Security Council demands to stop enriching uranium.  Ahmadinejad’s latest provocation is designed to call the West's bluff.

            Past threats by the U.S. and Israel have done little deter Tehran from aggressively enriching uranium.  Former President George W. Bush showed little stomach for calling Tehrna’s bluff and backing up tough talk with costly new sanctions or a military intervention.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it plain that Israel considers a nuclear-armed Iran an existential threat, reserving all options, including bombing its nuclear facilities.  State Dept. officials, in the Bush and Obama administrations, have tried to restrain Israel from precipitous actions, warning that a bombing campaign could create a regional war and send the world economy into a tailspin.  U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates believes it’s not to late to get Tehran back to the bargaining table.  He wants the U.N. Security Council to stand united against Tehran’s latest shenanigans.

            Gates believes there’s still time for Ahamadinejad, known for playing chicken with the West, to back down.  “If the international community will stand tougher and bring pressure to bear on the Iranian government, I believe there is still time for sanctions and pressure to work,” said Gates, ignoring recent diplomatic moves that have antagonized veto-wielding Security Council member China.  Recent Defense Department deals with Taiwan and Obama’s decision to meet with Tibet’s exiled leader Dali Lama at the White House practically guarantees that China will not go along with more U.N. sanctions.  “It increase the likelihood of stronger sanctions but the Chinese are still the big question mark,” said Gary Smith, director of the American Academy think tank in Berlin, believing China is still Iran’s ace-in-the-hole.  Without China agreeing to more sanctions, the Security Council has no leverage.

            Ahamadienjad plays a carefully calculated game of chess, knowing full well that China, and probably Russia, will not go along with tough new sanctions.  “It may be that the sanctions screw needs to be or can be turned here and there.  We need to consider very carefully what impact our options could have,” said German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, failing to admit China and Russia’s position.  Ahamdinejad consideres Iran a nuclear power, with all the rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to complete the nuclear fuel cycle.  He considers Western attempts to control Iran’s nuclear enrichment program “bullying,” using it as a political rallying cry to consolidate power after winning a disputed June 13, 2009 election.  Ahmadinejad has been consumed with Iran’s repressive Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia in a brutal crackdown on protesters.

            Looking at the big picture, Ahamdinejad needs to pick a fight with the West to divert attention away from his punishing crackdown and growing protest movement.  Picking a fight with the U.S. and U.N. Security Council helps camouflage a growing protest movement that could topple the mullah-dominated government, led by Iran’s Supreme Religious Leader Ali Khamenei.  Western nations get easily sucked into Ahamadinejad’s domestic propaganda machine, where he pits himself against the West to distract the domestic audience from his vicious repression.  Ahmadinejad insisted that for any deal with the West all fuel must be exchanged simultaneously and Iran would determine the quantities involved, both conditions look unacceptable to U.N. or U.S.  Because China leans away from supporting more sanctions, it gives Ahmadinejad more leverage with the West.

            Tehran’s continued recalcitrance on its nuclear enrichment program plays well to a domestic audience, too busy digesting the government’s cold-blooded repression on pro-reform protesters looking to evict Ahmandinejad and the mullah’s regime from power.  Threatening to up Iran’s enrichment process from 3.5% to 20%, Ahamadinejad puts more bargaining pressure on the U.S. and U.N.  “I don’t think there’s any doubt really that they’d be able to manage that.  There’d be some doubt about I suppose about the time it would take,” said Garth Evans, co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, agreeing that Tehran could get closer to weaponizing uranium.  Obama’s latest arm’s deal with Taiwan and scheduled meeting with the Dali Lama practically guarantees that China will not support more sanctions in the U.N. Security Council.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.