by John M. Curtis
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Copyright February 6, 2015
All Rights Reserved.

                  Trying to stop a dangerous escalation to the Ukraine crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande announced they would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin Feb. 6 in Moscow, hoping to convince Putin stop pro-Russian separatists from igniting a war in Europe.  Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has made little progress convincing Moscow to stop its military and logistical support to pro-Russian separatist leader Alexsandr Zakharchenko, whose recent comments about “miserable Jews” in Ukraine, refer to Poroshenko and his Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk.  Putin’s called rabble-rousers leftovers from Ukraine’s Nazi-era fascist past.  When he meets with Merkel and Hollande, Putin will have to explain Zakharchenko’s recent remarks about “miserable Jews,” especially in light of rising anti-Semitism in Europe and elsewhere.

             U.S., European Union and NATO officials believe Putin holds the cards in the so-called Donbass region of Southeastern Ukraine, where Zakharchenko’s rebels with Russian help have beaten back Porochenko’s attempts to regain control.  “Tomorrow we are ready to talk in a constructive way, and count on achieving some agreements which would contribute to the overall stabilization of the situation, the establishment of direct contacts between officials in Kiev and Donbass (in east Ukraine0,” said Putin spokesman Yuri Ushakov.  Putin wants a way out of the U.S. and EU sanctions that have helped plunge the Russian economy into recession.  Merkel and Hollande have a keen ear to U.S. political developments, with a GOP-controlled Congress pushing President Barack Obama to supply arms to Ukraine.  Conservatives blame Obama’s passive foreign policy to letting Putin run wild.

             Putin wants to get off the dangerous tightrope that has the Kremlin backing Zakharchenko’s effort to split off the Donbass region into an independent state, no longer part of Kiev.  Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk refuse to cede Donbass to Putin.  When Putin seized the Crimean Peninsula March 1, 2014, he triggered as series of economic and travel sanctions, triggering a devaluation of the ruble and Russian stock markets.  Putin justifies his aggression blaming the U.S. and EU for sponsoring the Feb. 22, 2014 coup that toppled duly elected Russian-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich.  Since seizing Crimea, Putin seems like he’s turned away from the West, content to complete a corridor that runs from Russia to Crimea through Donbass.  Merkel and Hollande have their work cut out for them trying to convince Putin that it’s in his best interests to call off Zakharchenko.

             Western officials assume that Putin has ultimate say on whether or not Donetsk leader Zakharchenko ends the pro-Russian insurgency.  Merkel and Hollande hope to appeal to what’s left of Putin’s energy contracts with the EU, supplying some 30% of the EU petroleum and natural gas.  Merkel, who grew up in Soviet-controlled Berlin, knows firsthand the dangers of fascism and post-WWII Soviet totalitarianism.  She watched West Berlin prosper while East Germany suffered under the weight of the Soviet communist system.  Merkel sees Putin as a throwback to Soviet times, where might makes right, seizing sovereign territory, violating international law.  With conservatives on Capitol Hill holding more sway in U.S. foreign policy, Merkel doesn’t want to see more conflict on the European continent.  NATO commander U.S. Army Gen. Philip Breedlove warns the White House of arming Ukraine.

             Merkel and Hollande agree with NATO that if the U.S. begins supplying arms to Kiev, it could trigger a dangerous escalation of the Ukrainian crisis.  Arming Kiev “could trigger as more strident reaction from Russia,” said Breedlove, putting the White House and Congress on notice about possible repercussions of arming Kiev.  Faced with stubborn recession in the EU, neither Merkel nor Hollande want to see anything that would interfere with EU economy recovery.  With the Frankfurt-based European Central Bank starting its own quantitative easing or bond-buying program and with Greece threatening to default again, Merkel and Hollande see nothing but economic trouble with a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy.  Merkel and Hollande fear the U.S. supplying arms to Kiev could force Putin’s hand like he did in Georgia, annexing South Ossetia and Abkhasia in 2008.

             NATO concedes that Russia is already supplying Zakharchenko sophisticated weapons to counter any primitive Ukrainian military response.  “We also assess that there are Russian soldiers in Southeastern Ukraine today operating the more sophisticated Russia hardware that’s has been provided to the separatist movement,” said Douglas Lute, U.S. Ambassador to NATO.  Merkel and Hollande hope to persuade Putin stop supplying arms to Zakharchenko, allowing Kiev to regain control over Donbass.  Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov seek to have Donbass run independently of Kiev.  Since booting Yanukovich out of Kiev, Putin no longer sees Kiev with any legitimacy, let alone sovereignty.  “Weapon deliveries would be a fire accelerant,” said German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, warning the White House and Capitol Hill to reconsider supplying arms to Kiev.

 About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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