by John M. Curtis
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Copyright Feb. 6, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

hrowing a monkey wrench into the best-laid plans, Super Tuesday—where 22 states held primaries and caucuses—produced only confusion, unable to crown a Democratic front-runner. When the dust settled, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) had won the biggest prizes, taking New York and California and you'd think reclaim the lead. She won eight contests, totaling 584 delegates. Sen. Barack Obama won 14 states across the country, totaling 569 delegates, yet couldn't break through with Latinos, accounting for 30% of California's primary voters. To date, Clinton totals 845 delegates to Obama's 765. Hillary took 60% of Latinos, giving her 10% victory in the Golden State. Obama had the same problem in Nevada, where Latinos leaned toward Hillary. Republicans got a little closer with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) taking 511 delegates for a total of 613, heading into this week's contests.

      Whatever happened on Super Tuesday, it didn't produce a clear front-runner for Democrats. Hillary can brag about winning the most populous states, while Barack can say he won the most states. While claiming victory, the Clinton campaign hasn't been able to put Obama away, whose next primaries and caucuses in Louisiana, Nebraska and Virginia Islands [Feb. 9], Maine [Feb. 10], D.C., Maryland, Virginia [Feb. 12], Hawaii, Washington State and Wisconsin [Feb. 19] favor a good percentage of 596 delegates. Both Hillary and Barack are a long way from the 2,025 needed to win the nomination. “Super Tuesday proved to be a very poor tool for getting definitive nominees,” said Stephen Schmidt, a political science professor at the Iowa State University in Ames. “It is possible that this will not be settled until the Democratic convention,” where super-delegates come into play.

      Super-delegates are VIPs, typically party mucky-mucks and former local, state and federal elected officials. Obama and Clinton now vie for some 800 super-delegates. At a brokered convention where neither candidate has enough delegates to claim victory, super-delegates can exercise “superior” wisdom, picking the candidate they think can win in November. They can also cause a bruising fight, where candidates prefer using only delegates won in the primaries. “A lot of super-delegates will be look at the map and will be looking at, well, who do they really think is the candidate who can take on the Republicans,” said Mark Penn, Hillary's chief campaign strategist. Having said that, Penn knows the argument goes both ways. Nonpartisan strategists have already said Obama gets far more independents and crossovers than Clinton, who pulls heavily from the base.

      Despite Barack's impressive performance, Hillary has done a far better job of capturing the Latino vote. Some speculate that Clinton's a household word in the Latino community. While Obama is still relatively unknown, his popularity grows with increased exposure. Yet there may be something else at play. Within the inner city, especially in the Southwest, like Dallas, Houston, Albuquerque, Tucson, Phoenix, Los Angeles and San Diego, Hispanic immigrants compete with African Americans for housing and employment. Blacks have been progressively displaced by Hispanics in traditional African American neighborhoods. Asians, too, while also newcomers, typically live in areas close to the inner city. They frequently own businesses that service the inner city, sometimes drawing complaints. When racial tensions flair, Asian businesses are sometimes scapegoated.

      During the last Los Angeles race riots in 1992, numerous Asian businesses were torched. Rioters exempted black-owned businesses, typically posting signs indicating “black-owned.” Given this demographic reality, inter-group prejudice develops, accounting, at least in part, for why Hispanics and Asians shunned Obama in more convincing numbers. While it's possible Barack will pick up votes with more familiarity, Hillary's name-recognition and outreach in the Latino community can't only account for the sizable discrepancy in votes. Barack could face more problems capturing the Hispanic vote in delegate-rich Texas, when the state votes March 4 for 228 delegates. Obama faces and uphill battle capturing Latino-rich Texas and union-rich Ohio, where Clinton already enjoys sizable leads. Clinton must capture both states to stay competitive.

      Barack faces a tough time for now in Latino-rich states of California, Nevada, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. If he gets the nominations, he'll capture the lion's share of Hispanic voters, except in Florida, where Cubans tend to vote Republican. While we'd all like a level playing field, Barack has work to do reversing demographic trends that pit blacks, Latinos and Asians against each other in the inner city. “She has the vote of the Latino community. When Mr. Clinton was in the White House, it was the best time for Latinos,” said Veronica Bordillo, 50, of Los Angeles. Economic times might have been better but the fact remains that Hispanics have issues with blacks, a sociologic fact beyond a good economy and other excuses. Obama should remind Latinos he intends create better jobs, revitalize the inner city and promote improved race relations for all inhabitants.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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