U.S. and Israel Gearing Up for War with Iran

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 5, 2012
All Rights Reserved.                                         

           Spinning quickly toward a collision course with Iran, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta refused to dispute charges by Washington Post columnist David Ignatius that Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear sites within the next few months.  When President Barack Obama announced punitive new sanctions Dec. 31 barring any U.S. firm from doing business with Iran’s central bank, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmandinejad threatened to close the Strait of Homuz.  When European Union Sanctions followed Jan. 23 banning Iranian oil sales July 1, Iranian officials called for retaliation.  Commemorating the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected the West’s sanctions and pressure to stop Iran’s nuclear program.  “Sanctions will not have any impact on our determination to continue our nuclear course,” said Khamenei.

            Since the early days of former President George W. Bush’s administration, Iran has evaded U.N. nuclear inspections, insisting its program was well within its rights under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.  When Ahmadinejad declared Iran “a nuclear state” Feb. 12, 2010, he wasn’t referring to Iran’s capacity to generate electricity.  Iran believes that only a nuclear bomb will hold the U.S. at bay.  They know full well what happened in 1999 when Pakistan got the bomb:  They neutralized India’s capacity to wage war.  Iran reasons the same way that no Western power or adversary in the Persian Gulf will get its way once they have the bomb.  “In response to threats of oil embargo and war, we have our own threats to impose at the right time,” said Khamenei, referring to potentially shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.  Iran’s struggling economy is 80% dependent on oil sales.

            Writing the Washington Post:  “Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June—before Iran enters what Israelis described as a ‘zone of immunity’ to commence building a nuclear bomb,” Ignatius wrote.  Since Ahmadinejad threatened in 2005 to “wipe Israel off the map” and hosted Holocaust deniers’ conferences, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has regarded Iran “an existential threat.”  Netanyahu doesn’t have the luxury of waiting until Iran tests its first A-bomb.  “Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon—and only the United States could then stop them militarily,” wrote Ignatius.  Reports from multiple sources point toward a possible strike against Iran’s nuclear sites.  With Iran’s new bunker-proof facility near Qom uncovered, time is running out.

            U.S. and EU officials have tried to ramp up sanctions in order to get Iran to back down off its nuclear enrichment program.  Iranian lawmakers feel “bullied” by the West, insisting the nuclear program is for “peaceful” purposes.  “Such sanctions will benefit us.  They will make us more self-reliant . . . We could not achieve military progress if sanctions were not imposed on Iran’s military sector,” said Khamenei, defying the West’s attempt to halt its uranium enrichment program.  U.S. officials insist that Israel would not inform Washington about future military operations.  When Iran’s nuclear scientist Mustafa Ahmadi Roshan was killed Jan. 11, Iran blamed the Central Intelligence Agency and Israeli Mossad.  Whether infecting Iran’s computers with the Stuxnet worm Sept. 25, 2010 or targeting nuclear scientists, the U.S. and Israel are in a covert war against Iran’s nuclear program.

            Whether admitted to or not, Israel would not act unilaterally without U.S. planning and approval.  “No . . .  I’m just not commenting,” said Panetta, denying that he was refuting Igantius’ story about Israel attacking Iran.  Israel’s actions are seamless with the U.S., rarely acting independently.  Three unnamed national security officials said they believe Israel would not forewarn the U.S. about its actions against Tehran.  Knowing the history, it’s inconceivable that Israel would act unilaterally without careful U.S. consultation.  When Iran’s naval chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told the Iranian News Agency that the U.S. should stay away from the Gulf.  Obama ordered the U.S. carriers to not change course, including traveling trough the Strait of Hormuz.  When the U.S.S. Carrier Abraham Lincoln returned to the Gulf Jan. 21, the Iranians appeared to have backed down. 

             More gunboat diplomacy hopes to bring Iran back to the bargaining table.  Whether Israel or the U.S. plan to attack anytime soon is anyone’s guess.  With Barack announcing Feb. 2 that the U.S. would end combat operations in Afghanistan, it opens the door for more military adventures elsewhere.  With U.S. troops pulled back from Iraq to Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, there’s no indication that the U.S. plans to end military operations anytime soon.   No one has a crystal ball:  But the cumulated wisdom of numerous unrelated stories point toward an eventual response to halt Iran’s nuclear program.  Iran’s insistence on enriching uranium and preventing U.N. inspectors to from doing their job suggests there’s more to the program than generating electricity.  Barring some 11th-hour halt to Iran’s dangerous game of chicken, an attack by Israel or the U.S. appears more likely.

  John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com.and author of Dodging the Bullet and Operation Charisma.       

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