by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 5, 2005
All Rights Reserved.

olling the dice, the Bush administration knew all along the Jan. 30 Iraqi election might not go in the right direction, dumping U.S. ally interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi for Shiites with ties to Iran. Yes, Saddam Hussein maintained a brutal authoritarian regime to keep rival ethnic and religious factions from plunging Iraq into civil war. Reluctant to topple Saddam in 1991, then Chairman of the Joint-Chiefs-of-Staff Colin L. Powell warned about a power vacuum radicalizing the region. Now that President George W. Bush took down Saddam, Iraq faces ever-increasing prospects of civil war, especially with Iraq's Sunni population rejecting Shiite rule. Since the Jan. 30, not only are Sunnis making trouble but the Kurds itch for independence. With Allawi out, Sunnis rebelling, Kurds threatening autonomy and the insurgency raging, the U.S. is losing control.

      Democratizing Iraq always carried the risk of pulling Iraq into the orbit of Iran's radical theocracy. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has loyalty not to building pluralism but recreating the great Persian Empire. Now Sistani's United Iraqi Alliance, whose leaders swear loyalty to Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are in the driver's seat controlling Iraq's 275-member National Assembly. “The Alliance would like to get either the position of the president or prime minister,” said Redha Taqi, a top official with a key group comprising the Alliance. Recent election results make it virtually impossible for Allawi to play a major role in the new government. Sistani, and other Shiite clerics, will settle for nothing short of the prime minister, further eroding U.S. influence. With about 35% of the precincts reporting, Allawi garnered only 18%, leaving about 66% for the Alliance.

      Anyway you cut it, Iraq's Sunnis won't accept Shiite rule, no matter how many symbolic concessions. Most Sunnis boycotted the elections, assuring, if nothing else, that the insurgency, which has its roots with Saddam's diehard Baathists and foreign terrorists loyal to Osama bin Laden and Abu Musab Zarqawi, rages on. It's difficulty building a security force or new army with recruits whose sympathies lie with the terrorists. Much of the terrorism aimed at Iraq's new security and police forces seems aided by insiders loyal to the insurgency. “The representatives of these political bodies that did not participate in the elections have decided in principle to take part in writing the permanent constitution in a suitable way,” said a statement from a minor group of conciliatory Sunnis led by Adnan Pachachi, a candidate for National Assembly, not speaking for the Sunni majority.

      All signs point to all-out war by mainstream Sunnis and foreign terrorists joined to end U.S. occupation. Nearly 1,500 U.S. soldiers have lost lives in a mission now changed to spread democracy around the globe. Free elections have pushed Iraq closer into Iran's gravity, a country feverishly close to building its first A-bomb. When that takes place, the White House will have no leverage with Iran, whose ties with Pakistan's Pervez Musharif and his bomb maker A.Q. Khan leave Tehran knocking at the nuclear door. Khan, who made himself rich selling nuclear enrichment secrets and A-bomb plans, believes all countries should have nuclear deterrence, precisely what helped Pakistan with India. Vice President Dick Cheney warned Tehran last month that Israel might have to take out Iran's nuclear facilities, like they did with Saddam's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981.

      Saddam's march toward nuclear weapons was light-year's behind Tehran. Iraq's new democracy makes it dangerously close to a strategic alliance with Iran. Khameni already owns long-range North Korean Nodong missiles, giving him the capability of hitting Tel Aviv or any other Israeli city. “Uranium enrichment is Iran's right, based on the NPT's [nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty article four . . . I do not think anyone in Iran would exchange or swap this with anything else,” said Hassan Rohani, secretary-general of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, rejecting Washington's effort to stop Iran's uranium enrichment program. Iran knows that if it gets the bomb, it calls the shots in the Persian Gulf. Iran brushed aside Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's warnings about nuclear ambitions. Tehran knows that it's racing against time to get the bomb and neutralize U.S. military superiority.

      Iraq's Jan. 30 elections threw a monkey wrench into U.S. plans for a real strategic alliance. Voting in Sistani's slate of Shiite candidates practically guarantees civil war with Saddam loyalists and radical Sunnis unwilling to compromise and share power. Nobody knows when or if the Kurds plan to defy Turkey and declare an independent state. Meanwhile, the insurgency rages on, killing U.S. soldiers and members of Iraq's fledgling army and security forces at a brutal clip. Turning power over to Shiites with ties to Tehran leaves Iraq more dangerous than before the U.S. ended Saddam's rule. With Iran refusing to end its uranium enrichment program, it's clear that Khamenei has his sights on the next Islamic A-bomb. Threatening Iran only stiffens the Islamic republic's resolve to build or acquire nuclear weapons. Iraq's new “democracy” makes the Middle East a lot more dangerous.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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