Obama Shows a Steady Hand in Egypt

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 4, 2011
All Rights Reserved.                                

            Announcing secret talks were underway to bring sanity to the Egyptian revolution, President Barack Obama showed a steady hand reasoning with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.  While a reliable ally for 30 years since taking the reigns from assassinated Egyptian President and Nobel Peace laureate Anwar Sadat, Mubarak hasn’t caught up with the pro-Democracy movement happening in Cairo’s Tahrir Victory Square.  When Mubarak announced Feb 1 that he would not run for reelection ending his term on schedule in September, protesters came by the thousands in Tahrir Square to protest.  Two days later, plainclothes Mubarak supporters attacked demonstrators with rocks, sticks, machetes and machine guns.  After the blood flowed, pro-Democracy demonstrators wouldn’t budge, signaling to Obama that Mubarak had to go more quickly than expected.

            Obama has been walking a tightrope betraying a dependable ally, while, at the same time, assuring political stability to one of the U.S.’s most reliable Arab partners.  Obama saw firsthand with a watching world Egyptians sacrifice their lives for democracy.  Barack realized that the pro-democracy folks at Tahrir Square put themselves into harm’s way for Egypt’s future.  “To see this moment of turmoil turned into a moment of opportunity,” said Barack, made him realize that stability could only return to Egypt with Mubarak’s departure.  Mubark expressed fears directly to Obama about Egypt descending into the abyss without his leadership.  “The whole world is watching,” Barack said, facing the cameras at the White House with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.  Like the pro-reform revolution in Tunisia, a change was coming quickly to Egypt.

            Attacks on journalists in Tahrir Victory Square marked a new phase where government-backed thugs tried to break the morale and will of pro-Democracy protestors. “This is obviously a fluid situation, an we’re monitoring it closely,” said Barack, pressuring Mubarak to halt attacks on journalists and pro-reform demonstrators.  Watching Egyptian protestors mowed down in the streets display the sacrifices made to develop a fledgling democracy.  While Obama didn’t insist that Mubarak leave by a date-certain, he strongly encouraged the 82-year-old Egyptian president to start an orderly transition process, including allowing Mubarak’s hand-picked successor Omar Suleiman to lead an interim military government to assure an orderly transition to eventual democracy.  “A transition period that begins now,” said Obama, insisting Mubark must vacate the office.

            Obama’s position on Mubarak reflects the consensus of Western leaders that see no end in sight to Egypt’s unrest until Mubarak steps down.  Mubarak fears anarchy but with the military taking control, it gives the civilian government plenty of opportunity to stabilize the government.  Obama wants the political process to “lead to free and fair elections,” with the details to be completed by Egyptians.  Before conducting internationally monitored elections, pollsters must gauge the most likely candidates or political parties elected.  White House officials don’t want to repeat the pro-democracy reforms in Gaza, where Palestinians overwhelmingly voted Hamas—a recognized terror group—into the parliament.  Western officials don’t want to deal with the Muslim Brotherhood or any other radical group responsible to promoting terror and anarchy in the region.

            Already losing $1 billion in tourism, Mubark can’t wait until September to resolve his decision to step down.  Tour operators have been canceling in droves due to the current unrest and street violence.  Obama told Mubarak that to restore order the transition must began now with a workable succession plan.  Barack walks a delicate line urging Mubarak to gracefully exist, while, at the same time, respecting Egypt’s sovereignty, not looking too heavy-handed.  “He’s proud but he’s also a patriot,” said Barack regarding Mubarak’s face-saving way out.  Spending 30 years running Egypt, it’s understandable that Mubark would be reluctant to retire on anything but his terms.  With the Egyptian economy in a nosedive, there’s no room for Mubarak to deal with a face-saving way out.  Mubarak must decide quickly whether his ego is worth more than the Egyptian economy. 

            Mubarak faces some tough decisions that must be driven by what’s best for Egypt.  He’s been encouraged by Western governments to gracefully bow out, despite risks of disorder and anarchy.  “Going back to the old ways is not going to work,” said Obama, insisting that Mubarak must begin the transition process or face more unrest and economic disaster.  With the deaths in Tahrir Square, protestors have refused to abandon the territory, convinced that hanging on will eventually lead to ousting Mubarak and getting democratic reforms.  Barack asked Mubarak to consider his legacy, viewing his 30-year reign in the shadow of the late Nobel Peace laureate Anwar Sedat.  Mubarak doesn’t have the stomach like Iran’s  Mahmouod Ahmadinejad to liquidate hundreds, if not thousands, of protesters. When Mubarak grasps Egypt’s social and economic upheaval, he’ll find a way out.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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