U.S. Throws Mubarak Under the Bus

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 3, 2011
All Rights Reserved.                                

            Honoring the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak continued the same peacemaking signing with Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin a forma peace treaty at Camp David Sept. 17, 1978 with the help of former U.S. Presdient Jimmy Carter.  After receiving his Nobel Peace Prize Dec. 10, 1978, it didn’t take long for the Muslim Brotherhood to assassinate Sadat Oct. 6, 1981.  Since then, Mubarak has been a reliable Mideast partner, sticking by the peace treaty with Israel and trying to keep a lid on Islamic extremism.  Since Sadat’s death, Mubarak walked a tightrope placating extremists, and, at the same time, continuing pro-Western relationships, making Egypt the most stable Mideast country.  Few Mideast experts looked into a crystal ball, predicting the sea change now confronting Egypt and the Arab world.

            When pro-Democracy protesters broke out Jan. 24, it’s been difficult predicting fast-moving political events leaving Egypt a heartbeat from revolution.  Tunisia’s bloodless coup Jan. 15, driving Ben Ali from his 24-year-run as president, helped push Egyptians to stand up to Mubarak.  Gathering by the thousands in Cairo’s Tahrir “Victory” Square, protesters, led by former U.N. Nuclear Watchdog Mohammed ElBaradei, demanded Mubarak step down.  When Hosni conceded he would not run for re-election in September, pro-Regime protesters turned violent, attacking journalists, including mugging CNN’s anchor Anderson Cooper.  “If any of the violence is instigated by the government, it should stop immediately,” said outgoing White House spokesman Robert Gibbs.  “The president found the images outrageous and deplorable,” said Gibbs, watching events in Cairo.

            Some White House officials and members of Congress have called for an immediate suspension of Egypt’s $1.5 billion in military and foreign aid.  When Mubark cut Internet service Jan. 24 in response to growing street unrest, the world saw firsthand the regime’s true character.  Instead of reasoning or negotiating with opposition groups, Mubarak only tried to cut off protesters’ communication lines.  “The People of Egypt  need to see change, the people of Egypt need to see progress,” said Gibbs, insisting that Mubarak must made immediate changes.  Mubarak’s decision to hang on until September election ignited protesters, unwilling to compromise.  While Gibbs refused to answer whether or not Mubarak was a “dictator,” the White House showed little patience for the current authoritarian Egyptian regime.  No one knows how far Mubarak is willing to go to hang on to power.

            Egypt’s military holds the key to Mubarak’s continued reign.  Egyptian Lt. Gen. Sami Anan returned to Cairo from Washington talks with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen. If Anan decides to defy Mubarak, it would only be a matter of hours before the government would change hands.  Before events unflolded this week, Mubarak was tolerated for his authoritarian rule over Egypt.  U.S. Egyptian Amb. Frank Wisner attempted to deliver Mubarak a message from Obama that stability could not return in Egypt wuithout regime change.  Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton let her Eyptian counterparts know that she expected regime change.  “What’s going on today—recent events in Egypt and certainly in the broader region—remind us all hoe crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quick the ground can shift under our feet,” said Clinton.

            Violence at Tahrir Square indicates that Mubarak’s undercover forces are attempting to break up pro-reform demonstrations.  “This is a critical time of America’s global leadership,” said Clinton, calling for the State Department to “be more nimble” to deal with unexpected events.  While the White House would like to see Mubarak out, they also must be assured that any replacement would be less oppressive.  It’s way too premature to call for elections, not knowing whether rank-and-file Egyptians would vote for more a more radical fringe.  If the 2006 election in Gaza is any guide, Palestinians overwhelmingly voted for Hamas, regarded by the State Department as a terror group. Today’s problems reconciling warring Palestinian factions stem from prematurely calling for new elections.  Had Palestinians waited and debated the issues more thoroughly, the outcome could be different.

            U.S. policy on the Mubarak government now turns on Mubarak’s oppressive attempts to seize control in Cairo.  Shutting down Intenet and cell phone service revealed the true nature of the Mubarak regime, prompting White House officials to give up on the Mubarak government.  Watching Western journalists beaten covering fast-moving events on the ground shows the Mubark government’s desperate attempt to hang on to power.  Whatever good Sadat did in 1978 making peace with Israel, Mubarak has been more about authoritarian rule than moving Egypt closer to Democracy, economic growth and human rights.  With so many governments calling for Mubarak’s ouster, the U.S must err on the side of protesters looking for regime change, but, at the same time, prevent Egypt from falling into the wrong hands.  No Democracy or free election can justify repeating what happened in Gaza.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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