Israel's Proxy War

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 3, 2009
All Rights Reserved.                    

           When Hamas seized the Gaza Strip by force June 13, 2007, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas knew there could be no reconciliation.  Abbas hopes that Israel can do what his security forces couldn’t:  Return Gaza back to the Palestinian Authority.  Abbas finds himself in a civil war with his more militant Palestinian brothers, refusing to yield one inch of territory in Gaza.  Unlike the Palestinian Authority, Hamas has never signed or agreed to peace with Israel, preferring to fire Qassam and Katytusha rockets at Israel’s Southern frontier.  Hamas learned July 12, 2006 from Hezbollah, firing rockets from Southern Lebanon into Israel’s Northern border, setting the precedent for Hamas’ rocket attacks in Gaza.  Hamas watched attentively while Israel flailed away for 33 days, ending in failure Aug. 14, 2006 with a U.N. brokered ceasefire.  Hezbollah took Israel’s best shot and survived.

            Hamas faced the same dilemma, fighting the Jewish State or its own people in the name of Abbas and the Palestinian Authority.  Hamas’ recent rocket attacks violate the current Jan. 14 Egyptian-brokered ceasefire.  Only eight days before Israeli parliamentary elections, Israeli won’t let rocket attacks go unpunished.  Hamas’ rocket attacks push Israeli voters closer to hardliner, former Prime minister and Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu.  More violence takes votes away from Kadima Party candidate, current Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.  More rocket attacks don’t help the fortunes of Labor Party candidate and former Prime Minister Ehud Barak.  Abbas expressed no interest in ceding power to Hamas’ Gaza strongman Ismail Haniyeh.  Haniyeh wants Abbas to recognize his authority after winning internationally-monitored parliamentary elections January 26, 2006

            Now that Hamas resumed rocket fire into Israel, Israel would likely relaliate only days before parliamentary elections.  “If there is shooting at residents of the South, there will be an Israeli response that will be harsh and disproportionate by nature,” said acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Olmert has been given the green light by Abbas to damage Hamas as much as possible in advance of Israel’s Feb. 10 election.  With Secretary of State Hillary Clinton dispatching Special Envoy former Sen. George Mitchell (D-Maine) to the region, President Barack Obama hoped to get a jumpstart on Mideast peacemaking.  Developments in Gaza remind the White House that peacemaking is impossible with two Palestinian groups.  Reconciliation hasn’t gone well because Abbas insists that Hamas cede authority to him.  Haniyeh believes Hamas is the sole and legitimate Palestinian Authority.

            Hamas finds itself growing more paranoid on an Abbas-Israeli partnership.  Hamas propaganda officially certifies Abbas as a Zionist sympathizer, breeding resentment in rank-and-file Palestinians.  Hamas spokesman Taher Nunu said Olmert’s threat showed Israel wanted to “find false pretexts to increase its aggression against the people of Gaza,” suspecting collusion with Abbas.  Abbas walks a fine line siding with Israel against Hamas.  Nunu’s suspicions raise the same of Palestinians’ divided loyalty especially the West Bank and Gaza.  Despite Israel holding Hamas responsible for recent attacks, it’s not clear on whom to blame the attacks.  It’s possible that radical factions beyond Haniyeh’s reach fire missiles.  Haniyeh may wish to cooperate but splinter groups committed to perpetual war might be responsible.  Israel has targeted smuggling tunnels near the Egyptian border with Gaza.

            Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu seems on the same page as Abbas.  Both know that there cannot be two representatives of the Palestinian people.  Netanyahu, Abbas and the unofficial but deeply held position of the U.S. government is that Hamas must go.  Netanyahu was quoted as saying that Israel must work for “removal of the Hamas regime in Gaza , and removal of the threat of rockets [falling] on the suburbs of Tel Aviv.”  If Netanyahu gets elected Feb. 10, Palestinians will have one tough customer with whom to negotiate.  Israeli opinion polls show a majority of Israelis favor Netanyahu’s approach to peacemaking:  Take no prisoners.  For any lasting truce, Hamas demands that the Egyptian and Israeli borders be opened.  Neither Egypt nor Israel trusts the Palestinians to follow the law and renounce terrorism.  Most Palestinians agree with Abbas that attacking Israel bears little fruit.

            Whether admitted to or not, Abbas and Likud Party leader Netanyahu are on the same page about purging Hamas from Gaza.  Both know there can be only one Palestinian representative and it can’t be Hamas.  If Netanyahu gets elected Feb. 10, Israel will make an all out effort to purge Hamas from Gaza.  President George W. Bush and his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice found out the hard way that it’s impossible to negotiate peace with only half the Palestinian people.  Abbas told reporters in Cairo that he has no intent of reconciling with Hamas unless they accept his supreme authority.  Since Hamas won’t give up power, Israel will have to fight Abbas’ proxy war to retake control of Gaza.  Without booting Hamas out, Mideat peacemaking is dead on arrival.  Only with a no-nonsense leader like Netanyahu will Israel do what it takes to remove Hamas from Gaza.

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news.  He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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