by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Feb. 2, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

xpected fireworks at Hollywood's Kodak Theatre Jan. 31 Democratic debate between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) never materialized, as both candidates engaged in shrewd political calculation. Instead of the heated exchange seen Jan. 24 in Myrtle Beach, S.C., both candidates avoided confrontation, preferring a risk-averse strategy. Clinton smartly protected a narrow but significant lead in the more populous states heading into Super Tuesday Feb. 5, where 22 states offer the bounty of some 1,644 delegates. Obama, on the other hand, missed, as challenger, a golden opportunity to score more points in the late rounds, preferring, like Clinton, to play it safe. Both candidates feigned cordiality, belied by Hillary's sarcastic response to CNN's host Wolf Blitzer, when he suggested that Barack insulted her about her vote to authorize the Iraq War.

      Like two boxers unwilling to expose their chins, the debate bored viewers with carefully scripted answers, lacking the spontaneity seen in previous debates. While many praised the civility, the lack of authenticity helped neither candidate, especially Obama who needs to make up ground before next Tuesday. “I was friends with Hillary Clinton before we started this campaign and I will be friends with Hillary Clinton after the campaign is over,” said Barack, inviting speculation about a possible Clinton-Obama ticket, should the Illinois senator fall short. Blitzer asked both candidates about that possibility at the end of the debate, to which both demurred. Hillary would benefit far more having Barack at the bottom of the ticket. Should Obama win the nomination, picking Hillary would shoot himself in the foot. She adds only problems should he ultimately prevail.

      When the debate turned to policy-wonking about health care, Hillary won hands down. Barack failed to mention that Hillary's great plan for national health care wouldn't fair well with contentious Republicans unwilling to follow her lead. “The differences between Barack and I pale in comparison to the differences we have with Republicans,” Hillary told a celebrity-packed audience, stunned by the lack of spirited exchange. Hillary diverted attention to the likely GOP nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), whose stand on Iraq parallels the White House. Hillary refused to give timetables but insisted she'd begin pulling out troops within 18 months, hesitant to commit unequivocally to ending the war. Obama insisted he'd begin ending the war in an “honorable” way immediately after taking office. Both quibbled over Clinton's vote to authorize the war.

      Barack said he'd run better in the general election against presumptive GOP nominee McCain because he opposed the war from the start, despite the fact he was not, like Hillary, in the U.S. Senate, faced, after Sept. 11, with inordinate White House pressure to error on the side of caution against Saddam Hussein. It sets up a clear choice for voters between (a) continuing the Bush policy or (b) ending the war. Recent problems with the economy have eclipsed Iraq for the moment as the nation's No. 1 issue. As the economy ebbs and flows, Iraq promises to be pivotal in the general election. So far, Hillary has benefited politically from the economic downturn. She reminded voters in the debate that things weren't too bad under her husband's presidency. Hillary refused to admit her vote to authorize President George W. Bush to use military force was a mistake.

      Obama tried but fell short of making the case that Hillary would continue Washington's divisiveness and gridlock, preventing her from achieving her ambitious legislative agenda, including national health care. Hillary appeared comfortable talking about the policy details connected with her health care plan. Neither candidate focused much on national security issues, the GOP's best argument against voting for a Democrat. GOP strategists relish the chance of attacking either Hillary or Barack on national security. Should McCain be the GOP nominee, he'll be equally uncomfortable talking about a domestic issues like health care and education. With Afghanistan deteriorating and a resurgence of Iraq violence, Iraq will return front-and-center. Either Clinton or Obama will be forced answer GOP arguments that winning the Iraq War keep terrorists off American streets.

      Redefining the word “anticlimactic,” Hillary and Barack engaged in strategic ballet, preferring to play it safe before Super Tuesday. Over 8-million cable and satellite TV viewers weren't looking for blood but an honest debate. Instead, they were treated to a well-staged act to remain unscathed before Feb. 5. Because Hillary leads in most national polls, Barack lost a golden opportunity to make up ground. With millions now spent on sophisticated TV ads over the weekend, voters will have to settle for campaign propaganda over spontaneous dialogue. Hillary and Barack tried to appeal to Edwards' supporters, praising the former candidate for his mission of ending hunger and poverty in America. “We've got a lot more road to travel,” said Obama, refusing to speculate about joining forces with Hillary. Both prefer to let their surrogates and paid TV attack ads finish the job.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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