by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright February 2, 2000
All Rights Reserved.

very four years the great state of New Hampshire flexes its biceps and etches its signature into the presidential race: Unique, fiercely independent and predictably unpredictable. Don’t expect the granite state to line up like sheep and follow national trends. Winning New Hampshire might actually be a bad omen since their picks seldomly march on to Washington. Like Minnesotans, New Hampshire’s a breeding ground for free-thinkers, independents, and miscellaneous groups following the beat of a different drummer. The key: Uniquely anti-Washington. Bucking national trends and soaking up the limelight, the granite state carries some symbolic significance as the nation’s first true primary. Resisting the 'inevitability factor,' New Hampshire voters fired a shot over the bow signaling that the fight has just begun. But has it really? Everyone loves good competition but the results in New Hampshire is no Superbowl.

       Let’s face it, McCain’s not complaining. He’ll take the "W" any way it comes. Enjoy the euphoria, it won’t last too long. Bypassing Iowa, he knew his best chances were in the independently minded granite state. New Hampshire and McCain go together like ham and eggs. A maverick state embracing a maverick, quasi-conservative politician with views strangely reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s. Surprising? Not really. Just recall Clinton’s 1992 strategy of hijacking Reagan Republicanism by dragging the Democratic party to the center. Like Clinton, McCain’s voting record—from abortion to health care and most other issues except defense—leans toward the center. That’s not a bad thing! Over the past 8 years voters feel much safer cloistered near the ideological center. While Clinton’s State of the Union banged the liberal gong, he’s governed from left of center—but it’s still the center.

       All the demographic analysis about voter characteristics and preferences won’t tell the whole story—at least this time around. Scoring points with various voting groups detours away from what backfired for Bush in New Hampshire. Lessons need to be learned. While the fit with McCain was always comfortable, it doesn’t explain his 49% to 31% shellacking of Bush. Unlike Bush, folksy, plain-talk’n John McCain reached out to New Hampshire voters and made a connection. Bypassing Iowa was only one element to his strategy. Taking a page out of the Reagan campaign book, McCain portrayed himself as a Washington outsider, despite serving 3 terms in the U.S. Senate. Painting Bush as part of the political elite worked like clockwork. Sounding patriotic themes and raising the 'integrity' issue also faired well with voters. Few question McCain’s patriotism but the verdict’s still out on his temperament.

       McCaine’s down-to-earth campaign style fits New Hampshire’s town-hall mentality more than Bush. Bush’s more polished stump speeches play better is larger media markets where image and panache make a difference. While Forbe’s TV ads poked holes in Bush’s air of invincibility, it was the candidate’s own lack of spontaneity—especially during the televised debates—that hurt his cause. With polls showing that Bush and McCain were running neck-and-neck the night before the primary, Bush’s 18 point deficit on election day is good reason to pause. Something definitely misfired in New Hampshire for Bush. McCain looked comfortable and like he was having fun. Bush seemed like he was pressing and a little uptight. Recalculating his presentation, Bush needs to appear more spontaneous, relaxed and playful the next time around.

       Delivering a wake-up call, John McCain reminded front-runner George W. Bush that he can’t only run on the fantasy of inevitability. Distasteful as it seems, Bush will have to take off the gloves and exchange with McCain on key issues. McCain’s folksy, common sense approach appeals to Clinton-fatigued Democrats and moderate to liberal independents. Pounding the tax issue alone might energize Bush’s base but won’t galvanize essential cross-over voters. By talking to voters on their terms, McCain succeeded in getting his message across. Taking these cues, Bush should revolve his campaign around the manifold needs of voters—not the other way around. McCain showed some charisma by tuning-in to the needs of his audience. Promising things people don’t need or want usually draws little interest. While the McCain camp savors its victory, Bush should be reminded that he’s heading into friendlier territory.

       On the Democratic side, Gore has Bradley on the ropes. While Gore didn’t land a knockout punch, his win in New Hampshire was a stunning come-from-behind victory. Those suggesting that Bradley has bought himself more time are forgetting what an enormous deficit Gore had to overcome. Gore’s momentum seems unstoppable. Besieged with questions about his health, far-out proposals and his passivity, Bradley staged a late-round flurry of attacks but it wasn’t enough to derail the Gore freight train. Like McCain, Bradley’s strongest appeal was to anti-Washington independents and crossovers whose Clinton fatigue and discontent with traditional parties left them seeking refreshing options. Bradley’s laid-back style and left-wing strategy seems to have fizzled because Gore held onto core Democrats. Unlike Bush, Gore retained his base, though, realistically, Forbe’s impressive showing clearly siphoned off at least 10% of Bush’s right-wing votes.

       When the euphoria lifts, McCain is still left with the unenviable task of convincing mainstream Republicans that he’s their man. No one doubts McCain’s credentials but so far he’s been treated as an outsider by his own party. More that 2 years ago the RNC decided to throw their weight behind George W. Bush. Despite appearing a bit short-fused, McCain has all the right stuff—certainly the experience and common sense—to be president. Whether he’s electable is another story. There’s no question that his plain talk style resonated well in New Hampshire. With the handwriting on the walls, it’s becoming abundantly clear that Bradley’s days are numbered. With the Bush heading into South Carolina, McCain still faces a slippery slope. Bush’s lesson is clear: Stay the course and profit from his experience.

About the Author

John M. Curtis is editor of OnlineColumnist.com and columnist for The Los Angeles Daily Journal. He’s director of a Los Angeles think tank specializing in human behavior, health care, political research and media consultation. He’s the author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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