by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright Feb. 1, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

oing head-to-head with former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, Calif. Jan. 30, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won CNN's Monday night debate with Anderson Cooper, locking the GOP nomination. While former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) showed up, the GOP has lined up behind McCain, leaving no other viable option. McCain had Romney on the ropes, blaming his devastating loss in Florida on dirty tricks, namely, distorting his position on Iraq timetables. Instead of discussing the context, Romney denied ever urging timetables for withdrawal. A few months after the mid-term election and with U.S. casualty rates sky high, the congress and White House put heavy pressure on Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite government to make more progress. U.S. public opinion was—and is—solidly against the war.

      Romney showed no backbone defending his original idea that the Iraqis needed to do more or the U.S. would have no choice but to get out. Getting the Iraqis to do more or face a possible exit strategy was perfectly legitimate. Yet Romney assumed that he could only defend the “surge” strategy or face certain political liquidation. McCain revealed Romney's Achilles Heel that he flip-flops on key issues, whether on taxes, government spending or abortion. Only an hour before Simi Valley debate, former New York major and GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani endorsed McCain. Adding insult to injury, Calif. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger announced plans to endorse John the following day, leaving Romney on limb. With Super Tuesday only five days away, Romney's campaign should come to a merciful end. While conservatives aren't happy, the GOP has found its 2008 candidate.

      When the race started in 2007, McCain was considered a prohibitive favorite. He got off to a slow start, opening the door for Giuliani and Romney. When revelations hit about Giuliani's expenditures on his then girlfriend Judith Nathan while N.Y. City mayor and his business and personal relationship with indicted former N.Y. City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik, his campaign unraveled. Giuliani's support left for McCain, leaving Romney reeling. “I won a Republican-only primary in the state of Florida but I also have been able to gain the support of independents, as well, which is vital to winning a national election,” said McCain, identifying himself as the consensus candidate. Giuliani and Schwarzenegger give McCain an insurmountable edge heading into Super Tuesday where 271 delegates are at play. McCain needs 1,021 delegates to wrap up the nomination.

      McCain didn't need to squabble with Romney, prompting a well-deserved rebuke from Rep. Paul for wasting precious time. Romney hasn't caught up with the GOP exodus to McCain, realizing he's the only candidate capable of winning in November. McCain and the GOP only hope that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) can stave off a relentless challenge from Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.), whose appeal to independents and crossovers present problems in the general election. McCain makes a strong case against Hillary, whose track record of extreme partisanship promises to send Washington into another four years of gridlock. According to a Sept. 28-30 Gallup poll, Obama has closed an insurmountable gap by 11% since his landslide South Carolina victory. If tonight's CNN debate at Hollywood's Kodak Theatre goes well for Obama, Super Tuesday could offer surprises.

      Obama's wildcard involves turning out unprecedented numbers of African Americans and youth on Election Day. If South Carolina sets any trends, Hillary could be in trouble, losing a significant amount of the black and youth vote. McCain would have the same problem in the general election, failing to capture enough youth and minority votes to seal victory. While McCain gets a reprieve in the primaries about Iraq, he faces a tough sell in the general election. Either Obama or Clinton have committed to getting U.S. forces out of Iraq, regardless of “victory,” as defined by the GOP. With between 60%-70% of voters opposing the war, it's going to be difficult for McCain to sell voters on Bush's continued “troop surge.” Unlike the GOP primaries, the general election will be a referendum on Iraq. While the economy's important, Iraq will decide the 2008 presidential election.

      McCain becomes the welcomed recipient of some good luck, watching Giuliani and Romney implode, leaving only Huckabee or Paul as the remaining options. When McCain gets the nomination, he's going to pick a VP based on strategic alliances. No presidential candidate fits the bill for McCain. Romney would add very little to McCain's fortunes. Neither would Huckabee, whose openly religious views make McCain cringe. McCain would need someone like his good buddy Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) to help pull Southern votes, especially evangelicals leery of McCain's chummy relationships with certain Democrats. So far, religious and social conservatives have little to cheer about. Right wing talk radio has been up in arms over the prospects of a McCain nomination. After nearly eight years of Bush, they'll have to suck it up or sit this one out.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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