Egypt's Revolution Ends Mubarak's Reign

by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 30, 2011
All Rights Reserved.                                

           When Hosni Mubarak began his 30-year reign Oct. 14, 1981 in the wake of Anwar Sadat’s assassination, he knew that he couldn’t let Egypt descend into Islamic extremism.  Thirty-years later, the same poverty that led the late Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser to force the British out of the Suez Canal, drives today’s Egyptians to revolution.  Since Sadat’s death, Mubarak has been a steadfast U.S. ally, ruling Egypt, like Nasser, with an iron fist.  Unlike Nasser, Mubarak, a former Air Force general, never developed the same pan-Arab philosophy that eventually broke British rule in 1953.  After six days of increasingly violent protests now centered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, protesters show no signs of backing down from ousting the 82-year-old Mubarak.  Speaking on a bullhorn, Nobel Peace laureate Mohammed ElBaradei called for Mubarak to step down.

            Like the recent revolution in Tunisia, ElBaradei sees light at the end of the tunnel, despite Mubarak’s efforts to hang on.  “You are the owners of this revolution.  You are the future,” said ElBaradei on a bullhorn to protesters in Cairo’s central square.  “Our essential demand is the departure of the regime and the beginning of a new Egypt in which every Egyptian lives in virtue, freedom and dignity.”  Since the protest turned violent Jan. 24, the U.S. position has become more nuanced.  First, Secretary of State Hilllary Rodham Clinton sided with protesters.  Now she seems more circumspect, not certain what’s driving events on the ground.  Lurking beneath the smoke, the Muslim Brotherhood, the same group the brought the world al-Qaida’s No. 2 man Ayman al-Zawahiri, appears jockeying to install an Iranian-style theocracy, giving Clinton reason to tone down her rhetoric.

            White House officials don’t wan a “small group that doesn’t represent the full diversity of the Egyptian society,” but supports protesters rights to freedom, self-government and free elections.  State Department officials under former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice wanted free-and-fair election in the Gaza Strip, where Palestinians struggled with overcrowded conditions and abject poverty.  When Western nations pushed for free elections in Gaza Jan. 29, 2005, they had to live with Hamas, a State Dept. terrorist group, as the duly elected authority.  Rice got fair-and-free elections but didn’t like the outcome, refusing to deal with the radical Islamic regime.  Less than two years later June 14, 2007, Hamas seized Gaza by force, booting out Mahmoud Abbas’ Palestinian Authority.  U.S. officials are still dealing with the political fallout from Hamas winning free elections.

            With Vienna-based former U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency’s former chief Mohammed ElBaradei demanding Mubarak’s ouster, it’s going to be difficult for Mubarak to hang on.  Cutting off cell phone and Intenet service, Mubarak has already demonstrated to the world his repressive ways.  Had he blamed it on the anarchists, he might have been able to spin his way out to the international community.  Cutting off Internet service lost Mubarak’s moral authority to continue running Egypt.  While Hosni desperately tries to hang on, he’s rapidly losing the military’s.  “I am glad they are continuing to protest.  God willing, he [Mubarak] will go,” said an unnamed Air Force Captain, monitoring protests from Tahrir Square.  “The Army must chose between Egypt and Mubarak,” pointing to the imminent collapse of military support for Egypt’s authoritarian ruler.

            U.S. officials must work Egypt’s transition because military and police force is needed to maintain order.  Close calls with King Tut’s treasures at the Cairo Museum demonstrate that not all of what Hillary calls pro-Democracy protesters have the same good intentions.  Anarchists, Islamists, garden variety criminals and terrorists also make up those same well-intentioned pro-reform protesters led by ElBaradei.  Whether U.S. or European Union officials like Mubarak or not, they need to support an orderly transition, not handing power to the Muslim Brotherhood or any other terrorist group.  Shutting down al-Jazeera’s Cairo office, blocking the Internet and cell phone and cracking down on protesters make Mubarak’s continued rule impossible.  Hundreds of prisoners, including radical members of the Muslim Brotherhood, escaped from four prisons around the Cairo area overnight.

            Mubarak must work urgently with ElBaradei to assure an orderly transfer of power before criminal forces engulf the Arab world’s most populous country into a caldron of anarchy, violence and terrorism.  Well-intentioned pro-reform protesters deserve a change in government led by ElBaradei but only if the military and law enforcement can maintain order.  U.S. State Department officials led by Hillary shouldn’t encourage street protests when they can’t guarantee law-and-order.  “It is necessary that the police role is quickly restored and that there should be cooperation in the field with armed forces .  . to defend the present and future of the nation.,” said Interior Minister Habib al-Adly, supporting an orderly transition.  Mubarak can only help now picking an acceptable successor like ElBaradei, stepping down and assuring the military and police quickly reestablish order on Egyptian streets.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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