by John M. Curtis
(310) 204-8700

Copyright January 29, 2008
All Rights Reserved.

aiting for Florida's results, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani knows that his presidential bid is over, torpedoed by revelations about egregious expenditures for his then mistress and now wife Judith Nathan while mayor of New York. His close friendship, business partnership and campaign relationship with former N.Y. City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik, now an indicted felon, also didn't help matters. Add to that Giuliani's miscalculation of skipping early primaries turned disastrous for his already shaky campaign. While Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) floundered last summer, Giuliani capitalized on his name-recognition from Sept. 11, vaulting him to GOP front-runner. His pro-choice and moderate positions seemed appealing to many Republicans fed up with President George W. Bush's brand of neoconservatisim that dragged the nation into an unnecessary war.

      Giuliani offered to continue the Bush doctrine, supporting the war on terror, especially in Iraq. Giuliani's problems stemmed not from his lack of charisma or mastery of the issues but from his questionable business practices while N.Y. city mayor and his continued involvement with the radioactive Kerik. When Kerik was indicted Nov. 9, 2007, the wheels came off Giuliani's campaign. “I made a mistake in not clearing him effectively enough, and I take responsibility for that,” Giuliani told reporters, acting dumbfounded, despite the fact that Kerik was his former business partner and key campaign advisor. Giuliani urged Bush to hire Kerik as Homeland Security czar in March 2007, despite knowing he faced possible indictment for fraud, tax evasion, obstruction of justice, money laundering and other felonies in connection with his position as N.Y. City police commissioner.

      When those revelations hit the headlines Nov. 8, 2007, Giuliani's campaign went into a freefall. Instead of getting humiliated in Iowa and New Hampshire, Giuliani expected the heat would die down, giving him a chance to live another day, concentrating in Florida. He spent the rest of his campaign coffers and time wooing the Sunshine State, pretending the bad news wouldn't travel south. While “it's not over ‘til it's over,” the last Reuters/C-Span/Zogby poll had Giuliani lagging well behind front-runners McCain and former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at around 13%. He prays that the lion's share of Florida's absentee voters hadn't followed the news and somehow missed his problems with Nathan and Kerik. “We're going to win today,” Giuliani proclaimed on Election Day. “Polls and predictions have been wrong,” praying that Florida's voters haven't paid attention.

      Giulani's decision to bypass early primaries wasn't a tactical campaign decision but rather a “hope-and-pray” strategy to let the heat die down after a lethal dose of bad publicity. From the early days of the campaign, Giuliani staked his hopes on voters' fears about terrorism, where he served a comforting role in the days following Sept. 11. In reality, Giuliani had no better national security credentials other than his visibility in the wake of Sept. 11. Without an upset win in Florida, Giuliani already hinted his cash-strapped campaign would fold its tent. Since Iowa's Jan. 3 primary, Giuliani has taken a backseat to Romney and McCain, fighting tooth-and-nail on the campaign trail. Heading into Florida, McCain lead Romney [35%-31%], close to a dead-heat, nearly within the 3% margin-of-error. With big wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, McCain hopes to carry his momentum into Florida.

      Giuliani hoped that Romey and McCain would neutralize each other, leaving him the logical option. But he was never able to reverse the damage from his bad publicity. McCain inherited Giuliani's best selling-point as the candidate capable of fighting terrorism. “Who it is that has got the background and knowledge to take on radical Islamic extremism,” asked McCain, appealing to Florida voters' fears about more terrorism. “I think that's where the people of Florida will make the judgment on my behalf,” hoping that terrorism still trumps the economy. Betting differently, Romney trumpeted his economic credentials, as a former governor and venture capitalist, hoping Floridians voted their pocketbooks. With McCain touting his national security credentials, Florida's voters no longer look to Giuliani, leaving him to battle for third place with cash-strapped former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

      Giuliani stumbled in Florida not because he bypassed early primaries but precisely because he hoped the heat would die down from bad publicity as N.Y. York mayor and involvement with Kerik. When the dust settles in Florida, Giuliani will be forced out the GOP race. Bad press about Nathan and Kerik pricked Giuliani's balloon, already over-inflated from exaggerated claims about his expertise and track record in national security. Florida's GOP voters are leaning toward McCain as a safe haven, not buying Romney's pitch that he's the only conservative left in the race with solid economic credentials. Giuliani cast his lot with Bush, whom conservative Wall Street Opinion-Journal columnist and former Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan said “destroyed the Repubican Party.” He miscalculated all around and will be headed back to the private sector.

About the Author

John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He's editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.

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